Investor's Portal to China

伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt Crisis)

europe money 3 300x207 伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt Crisis)如果要用一个词语简单的概括2011年的全球金融市场,那么“欧债危机”可能具有相当的代表性。在过去的一年中,不管是股票、债券还是外汇投资者,似乎都要看欧洲的脸色行事。如果欧洲债务危机得到一定程度的缓解,各类风险资产便有很大的机会得到升值,反之亦然。

进入2012年,旷日持久的欧债危机是否会发生一些新的变化呢?在笔者看来,这个问题的答案既为是,亦为否。

先来看“是”的部分。欧债危机的新旧阶段的分水岭,当划分在2011年11月1日,即欧洲央行新任总裁德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的上任时间。俗话说新官上任三把火,德拉吉上任以来还不到三个月,但却已经实施了一些大刀阔斧式、前任行长特里谢(Jean-Claude Trichet)没有施行的新政策,总结下来有以下几条。

首先德拉吉在他上任后的第一次和第二次央行会议上,分两次将欧元基准利率从 1.5%下调到目前的1%,间接否认了前任行长特里谢在2011年上半年升息的政策。要知道欧洲央行一向以对待通胀威胁的严谨态度著称,即使在2008年 金融危机的时候,其基准利率也没有低过1%。这也是为什么特里谢在2011年上半年全球经济似乎还没有明显企稳,但似乎又有通胀隐忧的情况下,先于其他央 行急急升息的重要原因之一。但是德拉吉上任伊始就毫不犹豫将前任偏紧的货币政策逆转,可见其应对危机的决心。 Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt Crisis)

A Comparison between China and US housing Price (中美房价对比)

house A Comparison between China and US housing Price (中美房价对比)IS China’s housing price expensive? Depends. Expensive is always a relative concept. This chart compares the housing price in a lot of Chinese cities to that of the United States, and it seems that the housing prices in two countries are quite similar.

中国房价贵么?要看你怎么看了。贵和便宜一直是一个相对概念。这张图表对比了中国和美国十几个大城市的平均房价。看起来似乎中美两国的房价差不多。

share save 171 16 A Comparison between China and US housing Price (中美房价对比)

Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011 – China’s Reaction to European Debt Crisis

WCM Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011   Chinas Reaction to European Debt Crisis

The Presentation can be downloaded from HERE.

演讲稿原文可从此处下载

share save 171 16 Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011   Chinas Reaction to European Debt Crisis

China is the second biggest creditor of US (美国第二大债主)

Picture6 China is the second biggest creditor of US (美国第二大债主)China is the second biggest creditor of US, just after Federal Reserve.

中国是继美联储之后美国的第二大债主

share save 171 16 China is the second biggest creditor of US (美国第二大债主)

A guess on China’s foreign reserve currency composition (外汇储备货币构成)

Picture8 A guess on Chinas foreign reserve currency composition (外汇储备货币构成)The actual currency composition of China’s foreign reserve is a state secret. However, we can get an educated guess on the components based on different sources of information.

中国外汇储备的外币构成没有人知道,但是可以管中窥豹,略知一二。

share save 171 16 A guess on Chinas foreign reserve currency composition (外汇储备货币构成)

The geographic spread of China’s outward direct investment (对外投资地理分布)

Picture11 The geographic spread of Chinas outward direct investment (对外投资地理分布)Up till June 2011, China has invested directly in all the major continents, with a fairly even spread among all of them.

截至2011年6月,中国对海外的直接投资分布五大洲,在每个主要国家都有踪迹。

share save 171 16 The geographic spread of Chinas outward direct investment (对外投资地理分布)

The sector spread of China’s outward direct investment (对外投资行业分布)

Picture12 The sector spread of Chinas outward direct investment (对外投资行业分布)According to Heritage Foundation, China’s outward direct investments are spread into sectors of energy, metal, power, transportation and other sectors. Data up to June 2011.

截至2011年6月,中国海外直接投资覆盖各个行业,最大的有能源,金属,运输,金融等行业。

 

share save 171 16 The sector spread of Chinas outward direct investment (对外投资行业分布)

Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚:唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)

china europe 300x222 Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚:唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)This Article was originally published on Business Times.

A lot has been said about the potential rescue from China to the current European debt mess. For example, Mr Yu Yongding, a former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, wrote in Financial Times (Oct 31, 2011) that “Beijing will not ride to eurozeone’s rescue”.

I would argue the opposite in this article. To understand this issue more deeply, one need to start with a few numbers.

As of Oct 2011, China held a total foreign reserve worth of about 3.2 Trillion US Dollars, with a wide margin ahead of other governments with large foreign reserves such as Japan (less than 1.5 Trillion USD) and Russia (about 500 Billion USD). During January 2011 to September 2011, China has accumulated 354 Billion USD worth of foreign reserve, which was equivalent to about 1.3 Billion USD per day and almost 1 million USD per minute. Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚:唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)

What if China Hard Lands (硬着陆风险)

maplecrot china integration index1 What if China Hard Lands (硬着陆风险)Which countries will be hit hard if China lands hard? According to Maplecroft, There are a list of countries at the extreme risk if China lands improperly, including Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea and Australia.

中国硬着陆影响的不光是中国自己,还有周边一些其他国家。其中有一些国家和中国的相关性极高,因此受影响的可能性最大。这些国家包括新加坡,澳大利亚,韩国和蒙古。

 

share save 171 16 What if China Hard Lands (硬着陆风险)

伍治坚:希腊离退出欧元区一步之遥 (Wu Zhijian: One Step Closer to Exit)

greece 300x191 伍治坚:希腊离退出欧元区一步之遥 (Wu Zhijian: One Step Closer to Exit)此文原载联合早报

10月31日,希腊总理帕潘德里欧提议举行公投,由希腊全体人民决定是否接受欧洲议会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织(IMF)给予希腊的债务援助。 在此之前,欧洲债务危机断断续续已经持续了接近两年。希腊总理在这时候抛出这一令人大跌眼镜的怪招,为这场危机的解决又增加了许多不确定因素。

一个重要的问题是,为什么希腊总理要在这时候宣布举行公投?公投在希腊国内有民意支持么?回答这个问题,要从如何治愈希腊债务问题的源头说起。

从历史经验来看,一个国家要摆脱债务危机,似乎有两种方法:速效的和缓慢的。这有点像西医和中医,西医讲求用强效的大剂量,对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效,而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。

绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法,因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦,但是耗时短见效快,咬牙坚持忍一忍,危机可能就过去了。 对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现,基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件:第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值,第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺 一不可。大规模的本币贬值,让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升,为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础;债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解,不至于被 过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 伍治坚:希腊离退出欧元区一步之遥 (Wu Zhijian: One Step Closer to Exit)

Big Soybean Players in China (群雄逐豆)

bean Big Soybean Players in China (群雄逐豆)China is one of the world’s biggest consumers and importers of Soybean. In this sector, there are quite a few large players in the crushing of imported beans. The biggest of all is Wilmar, which controls about 17% market share of China’s soybean crushing, followed by China Agri (12%), Chinatex (9%), Cargill (9%) and Jiusan (6%). Most of the imported beans are GMO.

中国是全球最大的大豆进口国之一。中国的进口大豆压榨主要控制在一些巨型粮商手中。其中最大的是益海粮油(Wilmar),占到17%左右的市场份额。其他比较大的商家有中国农业,嘉吉,九三,莱宝等。

 

share save 171 16 Big Soybean Players in China (群雄逐豆)

China’s Global Commodity Appetite (大宗商品靠中国)

Comm Chinas Global Commodity Appetite (大宗商品靠中国)China’s commodity appetite supports the global commodity market. For some of the items, China’s consumption solely determines their price. For example, China consumes more than half of world’s pork, more than 40% of world’s copper, and more than 1/3 of world’s cotton. If China slows down, the demands for all these commodities will slow down.

中国对全球大宗商品的需求是支撑这些商品价格的重要因素。举个例子来说,中国消费了全世界一半以上的猪肉,约40%的铜,以及超过1/3的棉花。如果中国经济受影响,那么这些大宗商品的价格可能都会有明显回落。

share save 171 16 Chinas Global Commodity Appetite (大宗商品靠中国)

China’s rapid growth (黄金十年)

GDP Chinas rapid growth (黄金十年)During the ten years between 2000 and 2010, the GDP per capita of China has increased dramatically at an annual pace of almost 40% per year. The only big country that has grown faster than China in terms of GDP per capita is Russia. Japan is a major country that has grown the most slowly, with an annual growth rate of slightly above 1% per year.

在2000至2010的10年中,中国的人均GDP从不到1000美元增长到超过4000美元,每年平均增长接近40%。其他发达国家的增速要慢很多。日本最慢,每年差不多1%多一点。

share save 171 16 Chinas rapid growth (黄金十年)

Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek (伍治坚接受HedgeWeek采访)

singapore 300x199 Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek (伍治坚接受HedgeWeek采访)The CEO of Woodsford Capital Management Pte Ltd, Wu Zhijian, has been interviewed by Hedge Week to discuss the regulatory environment in Singapore for Hedge Funds.

伍治坚接受Hedge Week专访并发表对新加坡基金法规环境的看法。

The Interview can be downloaded from HERE.

share save 171 16 Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek (伍治坚接受HedgeWeek采访)

China’s Addiction to GDP (销魂的GDP)

china economy 300x216 Chinas Addiction to GDP (销魂的GDP)China’s addiction to GDP growth can be traced back to 1992, more than a decade after the first stirrings of a market economy were launched with the establishment of the special economic zones. The student protests and subsequent clampdown in Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989 led many in China’s leadership to question the idea of opening up to the outside world. They worried that the introduction of capitalist-style reforms would inevitably weaken the political structure and so the atmosphere was tight and cautious as China entered the 1990s.

Now technically retired from his role in the leadership, Deng took it upon himself to revitalize the reforms he had first put in motion. On a tour of Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities that had already seen some of the benefits he foresaw for the country from the reform program, Deng told audiences that for China, “growth is the first principle.” He reassured Communist Party members that the leadership would support local efforts to open up the economy and encouraged everyone to continue with the reforms he had started. The official media gave blanket coverage to the tour and speeches, ensuring that Deng’s words would be taken as party doctrine. Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 Chinas Addiction to GDP (销魂的GDP)

World Foreign Reserve Rank (世界外汇储备一览)

reserve1 World Foreign Reserve Rank (世界外汇储备一览)With 3.2 Trillion Dollars, China ranks the World’s government of the highest foreign reserve, followed by Japan, Russia and Saudi Arabia.

中国拥有3万2千亿外汇储备,位居世界第一,后面跟上的有日本,俄罗斯和沙特。

share save 171 16 World Foreign Reserve Rank (世界外汇储备一览)

China’s Global Reach (全球投资潮)

global reach Chinas Global Reach (全球投资潮)How much money has China invested outward as of today? This is an intriguing question to a lot of researchers and industry analysts. According to Heritage Foundation, China has since 2005 invested a total of $376 Billion world wide to other countries.

中国到底一共向世界各地投资了多少钱?根据美国Heritage Foundation的研究,自05年以来,中国共向国外直接投资了三千七百六十亿美元。

 

share save 171 16 Chinas Global Reach (全球投资潮)

伍治坚:中美贸易战 (Wu Zhijian: Trade War Between China and USA)

trade war 300x157 伍治坚:中美贸易战 (Wu Zhijian: Trade War Between China and USA)今年10月11日,美国参议院以63票对35票通过《2011年货币汇率监督改革法案》。同一天民主党参议员希拉里(Hillary Clinton)对此法案的通过评论道:这一法案反映了很多美国人对于中国汇率政策的失望和不满。此消息一出,立刻引起中国方面的强烈回应。10月12日,即法案通过的后一天,中国外交部,中央银行和商务部纷纷表态,对此法案提出了坚决反对。同一天人民币对美元汇率一改年初以来的升值趋势,陡然在一天之内突降0.5%,似乎从侧面宣示了北京的强硬立场。

这样剑拔弩张的态势让人不免开始担心:中国和美国,这两个世界上最大的经济体,是否会打起贸易战?在目前全球经济复苏形势不明朗,欧洲债务危机没有明确解决方案的时候打起贸易战,岂不是雪上加霜,加大全球经济重回08年衰退的风险? Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 伍治坚:中美贸易战 (Wu Zhijian: Trade War Between China and USA)

伍治坚:金融危机离我们不远 (Wu Zhijian: One step closer to the Financial Crisis)

p303788 Puerto Rico Beautiful Sea 300x239 伍治坚:金融危机离我们不远 (Wu Zhijian: One step closer to the Financial Crisis)此文原载联合早报

种种迹象表明,如果欧洲政府和中央银行再不采取果断的措施,世界经济很有可能再次跌入衰退的深渊。 很多人对2008年的金融风暴仍然记忆犹新,但是我们今天面临的境况可能比2008年还要严重。主要原因有三:首先,2008年的金融危 机始发于美国,当时的美联储和联邦政府财政部为了应对危机,采取了强有力的措施,比如在短时间内通过TARP(Troubled Asset Relief Program)以及联储的第一次量化宽松。这次的金融危机更多源于欧洲,而由于欧洲独特的政治体制,以及其央行对待危机不同的态度,很难像美国那样,在 短时间内通过大规模的金融方案以稳定市场的信心。

其次,2008年金融危机的时候,全球各国央行纷纷降息,政府纷纷增加财政支出以刺激经济,因此财政政策和货币政策的双重作用,令全球经 济在2009年迅速探底回升。  但就今天而言,大部分国家的利率已经处于零位或者接近零位,因此下调空间十分有限。同时,大部分政府都为过高的债务,而 不得不紧缩开支或者增加税收,要这些政府再一次启动新一轮财政刺激几乎不太可能。因此,如果金融危机再袭,能够应对危机的政策工具已经少了很多。

最后,2008年金融危机发生的时机在21世纪头10年全球经济高速发展之后,前10年发展的积累,对实体经济的冲击产生一定的缓和作 用;如果这次金融危机再次发生,则是在2008年经济衰退之后的3年,实体经济比当时要脆弱很多,失业率也要高出很多,因此对普通老百姓的冲击会更大。

很多人觉得,发生在欧美的金融危机可能和自己关系不大,比如新加坡的经济增长依然高于欧美诸国,失业率仅为2%,房价也节节攀升,似乎天 下太平。但经历过2008年危机的人们都会记得,当欧美经济陷入衰退的时候,海外订单可能会大幅缩水,各银行不得不大规模裁员,同时海外雇员很可能由于失 业,不得不回去他们的家乡,造成人去楼空的结果。因此即便经济危机由欧洲而起,但由于国际经济的相关性,新加坡几乎难以避免被波及。 Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 伍治坚:金融危机离我们不远 (Wu Zhijian: One step closer to the Financial Crisis)

China’s Urbanization Rate Still low (城镇化支撑发展)

urban Chinas Urbanization Rate Still low (城镇化支撑发展)China’s urbanization rate is still relatively low compared to most other developed countries in the world. The new 12th 5-year plan continued to support growth through urbanization across the country. Such a prospect shall provide better chance of a continuously high growing economy in the coming future.

中国的城镇化程度在2010年只有50%左右,和发达国家80%-90%左右的城镇化程度相去甚远,因此还有很大发展空间。

 

share save 171 16 Chinas Urbanization Rate Still low (城镇化支撑发展)

China Bears enjoying the ride (中国市场不给力)

I believe this video is worth watching. Chanos’ argument was very convincing and made him stand out against the China bull next to him. Chanos’ reasoning was convincing in the sense that he presented figures and facts, and reached his conclusion based on sound theoretical foundation. Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 China Bears enjoying the ride (中国市场不给力)

China’s GDP heavily relies on property (GDP靠房产)

house1 Chinas GDP heavily relies on property (GDP靠房产)

How important is China’s property sector to her GDP? What is the contribution of China’s real estate to the country’s economy? A lot of people would say very important. But this graph shows a better picture by quantifying the importance: Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 Chinas GDP heavily relies on property (GDP靠房产)

China’s Construction Boom (房产泡沫倒计时)

house Chinas Construction Boom (房产泡沫倒计时)Does China have a property bubble? If so what stage is the bubble at? Will the bubble burst? These are questions that have been debated repeatedly among scholars and market observers, yet with strong divided opinions. One of the reasons for the divided views is that it seems quite difficult to agree on the facts to start with. Take the construction pace, for example. Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 Chinas Construction Boom (房产泡沫倒计时)

伍治坚:零八再现 (Wu Zhijian: 2008 all over again)

haeundae the deadly tsunami 482x298 300x185 伍治坚:零八再现 (Wu Zhijian: 2008 all over again)最近欧洲金融市场的变化发展和2008年美国的金融危机有很多相似之处。比如最新瑞银(UBS)爆出金融交易损失20亿美元的消息,让人不免想起当时的贝尔斯登(Bear Stern)也是由于大笔的交易损失最终被JP Morgan低价收购。但是仔细分析这次的欧洲债务问题,似乎又有比08年更加难以解决的问题。

08年美国次贷危机在九月份雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)宣布倒闭的时候达到顶峰。银行间借贷几乎冻结,没有银行敢贷款给其他银行,生怕对方是下一个雷曼。这样的恶劣环境波及到实体经济,导致非金融行业的公司也纷纷出现资金断流,引发美国,乃至全球的经济衰退。当时的美国财政部长保尔森(Henry Paulson)和美联储主席伯南克(Ben Bernanke)携手力促国会通过了一系列史无前例的应对措施,包括高达3000亿美元的TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program),以及之后的第一轮量化宽松(Quantitative Easing)大规模购买房贷抵押债券,终于勉强使金融市场恢复运行。

在今天的欧洲,虽然债务问题的源头似乎来自于希腊,但目前的焦点均集中在意大利身上。主要原因是希腊虽然债务缠身,并且似乎早晚会违约,但是其总量不大,不足以危及欧洲金融系统的核心。意大利则不一样。目前意大利的10年期国债殖利率达到5.5%左右。一般认为如果意大利国债殖利率超过6%,那么就有可能无法偿还其债务(即有违约风险).可以毫不夸张的说,如果意大利发生违约,那么欧元区则真的到了面临生死存亡的时候了。 Continue (继续)

share save 171 16 伍治坚:零八再现 (Wu Zhijian: 2008 all over again)

Back to Ordos in 2 Years (再探鬼城)

It’s been 2 years since the empty city of Ordos has been reported. So what the city looks like after 2 years? This video takes you there.

2年前,内蒙鬼城鄂尔多斯被媒体曝光。2年后的今天,这个城市有什么变化呢?

share save 171 16 Back to Ordos in 2 Years (再探鬼城)
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