China Tells

Is China thinking of increasing gold holding? (黄金迷局)

Mar 9

Posted by Wushu in Commodity China (商品风暴), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

According to the vice governor of People’s Bank of China, Mr. Yi Gang, the return on Gold in the last 30 years is not that great and China will be cautious to increase the holding of Gold (See Article from WSJ). There are large speculations that China is considering reducing the investment in US treasury and convert part of it to Gold. Given the limited amount of tradable gold on the market, however, any significant move from China on back of its record Foreign Reserve will result in a surge of Gold price almost for certain. For the moment China holds about 1054 metric tons of gold, which represents about 1.6% of China’s total Reserve (See Graph from Chinatells).

近年来市场经常猜测中国政府会主动增持黄金，用来替代逐渐减少的美国国债。跟美元或者国债相比，黄金的生产不是美国政府能够随便控制的，因此其价值应该更趋稳定。但是增持黄金也有不少实际的难处。 Continue (继续)

China Deleveraged Ahead of the World (去杠杆化的全球竞赛)

Mar 9

Posted by Wushu in Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

De-leverage is the word of fashion in 2009: according to most leading economists, the world is entering a lengthy period of de-leveraging. The main reason is that the leveraging has gone out of wire prior to 2008, when the financial crisis hit the world. Continue (继续)

China’s Debt Level Moderate among Peers (债务水平健康可控)

Mar 9

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s Debt Level has increased dramatically since SH of 2008 following the global financial crisis. A horizontal comparison among the peers, however, shows that China’s debt level is modest at an international level. Continue (继续)

A comparison between China and US Local Government Revenue Source (中美地方政府收入对比)

Mar 8

Posted by Wushu in Macro China (国际视点), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

A comparison between the revenue source of China and US’s local governments illustrates some interesting points: 1) China government is more reliant on Inter-government funds transfer, which is mainly the fund from Beijing, Continue (继续)

China’s Corporate Tax on high end in Asia (中国公司税率在亚洲居高)

Mar 7

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s corporate tax is on the high end in Asia compared to the peers. According to the latest complied data, USA and Japan have the highest corporate tax in the world (around 40%), Continue (继续)

China’s Real Rate shows sign of coming down (实际利率渐行渐低)

Mar 7

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Due to an earlier than expected increase in the price level (See Graph from Chinatells), China’s real interest rate starts to show a downtrend move. Continue (继续)

Deposit Growth: A tale of two cities (储蓄增长出现剪刀差)

Mar 7

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Since the end of 2008, there has been a discrepancy between the deposit growth rate of China’s corporate saving and household saving. Corporate deposit growth touched a bottom in Q4 2008 and continues to go up ever since. On the other hand, Continue (继续)

A letter to Michael Dell – 售后噩梦：我给迈克尔戴尔的上访信全文 – 罗比原创

Mar 4

Posted by roby in From China (内部思潮), Gossip China (八卦天下) | 4 Comments

去年（09年）七月要买台式机给家人用，因为公司和DELL是Partner，可以享受大客户的折扣，所以就通过一个熟悉的DELL销售经理Nancy下了单。整个过程一如既往的便捷和方便（十年来已经买过不下五台DELL产品），大约一星期后收到两个大箱子。小插曲是当时windows7还没发布，DELL的销售说让加钱买个pro版本的Vista，DELL网站承诺可以直接免费升级到windows7（09年10月发布）。没想到这个插曲后来就成了噩梦。

十一月下旬偶尔看到相关新闻想起来windows7的升级包的事情，上DELL网站查看居然已经有了，但是要自己上一个网站注册，并支付运费。当下就觉得这个服务很糟糕，因为这期间就没有任何DELL官方的通知发到我手机或者Email地址（这种服务我家楼下卖面包的都有）而且运费一说彻底颠覆了我对free upgrade的理解，要不是我残存的记忆力+熟练打开浏览器的能动力+正确访问DELL的官网而非某个山寨诈骗页面的辨识力+在一个角落发现这个页面欲遮还羞的观察力+一定的货币支付能力，我可能就此得不到这个蒸贵的服务包了，想到此处不由得一身冷汗。噼里啪啦填了在线表格，到得最后一步输入我的服务标签时杯具出现了，网站提示无法识别我的服务标签，在我不懈尝试数十次，期间更换了三种浏览器，两幅键盘鼠标，东西南北四个座位朝向后宣告失败。于是我发了 Email询问销售，得到回复是IT界著名金玉良言之“等等再试”。 Continue (继续)

Central Huijin unlikely to increase holdings (汇金近满仓)

Feb 27

Posted by Wushu in Corp China (公司动态), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Central Huijin is a wholy owned subsidiary of China Investment Corp. IT is estimated that Central Huijin manages about 50% of CIC’s total asset in 2007, which is about USD 100 Billion. Continue (继续)

Copper Price strongest growth since Q4 08 (铜价引领涨潮)

Feb 25

Posted by Wushu in Commodity China (商品风暴), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Since Oct 08 (the Financial Crisis), there has been some choppy developments of material prices in China. Notably some materials went through a severe correction of price (eg., Copper, Coal, and Aluminum). Since Q1 09, Continue (继续)

3 million jobless graduates (3百万失业大学生)

Feb 24

Posted by Wushu in From China (内部思潮), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

It is estimated that there are three million college graduates in China who struggle to find a job (See Article from LA Times). Since 1999, China government has started to increase the enrollment of universities by 30% annually. A side effect of the enlarged enrollment is starting to be felt in the recent years. According to a latest estimate, there are about 20 million undergraduates enrolled into universities in 2008. However, whether the country can provide 20 million job vacancies by the time that they graduate is a big question mark. In fact, in some regions such as Canton province, a phenomenon surfaced that the employers are struggling to find any labor and are willing to pay a hefty premium for hard labors than college graduates. After all, maybe the country doesn’t need that many ‘educated’ professionals. Continue (继续)

China is narrowing the gap with UK (大国崛起)

Feb 24

Posted by Wushu in Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表), Video China (镜下百态) | No Comments

During the eighteen to nineteen century, UK is the world’s most powerful country from both economic and military perspectives. In the 21st century, however, Continue (继续)

Asia is now China’s Top Export Destination (脱钩进行时)

Feb 23

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Which region is China’s biggest export market? You might guess USA or EU, and neither is the correct answer. In 2009, Asia excluding Japan and HK has become China’s top export destination. Continue (继续)

Foreign Capital continues to eye on China (中国市场继续集外资宠爱)

Feb 23

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

China started to attract foreign interest and capital about 10 years ago. The recent financial crisis only widened the gap of attractiveness between China and Western World, and China continues to entice more and more attention, and money (See Article from Global Times). According to an interview with some foreign Brokerage firm and Fund manager, they inevitably see money making opportunities in the fast growing China. It seems that China is going to be flooded with money manager, institution and research analysts very soon as it is such a big spot so impossible to miss. Normally such situation leads to bubble and excessive competition.

中国快速的经济发展对海外基金和研究机构产生强大的吸引力，同时热钱也继续青睐中国市场。 Continue (继续)

Fitch’s downgrade of China Banks meets rebuke (银行评级起风波)

Feb 23

Posted by Wushu in Corp China (公司动态), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

On Feb 2, Fitch has downgraded two Chinese banks – China Merchants Bank and Citic Bank to D, which means ‘weakness of internal or external origin’. Before the downgrade the two banks were ranked C/D, which means ‘adequate but with one or more trouble aspects’. Such a downgrade has invited strong reaction from a senior bank official of People’s Bank of China (See Article from WSJ). According to the official, Chinese banks have weathered financial storm well and came up in better shape than any other western banks (See Graph from Chinatells). Therefore Fitch’s rating is not objective. In addition the capital adequacy ratio of the two banks is good enough and their NPL ratio keeps going down. However the record amount of increase in loans in ‘09 did post potential risks to the banks, albeit not that clear for the moment.

美国评级机构Fitch近日调低招商银行和中信银行的评级，从C/D降到D。此举引发央行高管的不满。从08年金融危机以来，中国银行受到的冲击最小，在走出危机的过程中一马当先，远远胜过美国同行，因此最近的降级难以让人信服。

China Building the World (中国建筑业海外发展迅猛)

Feb 22

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s Oversea Construction contracts have been increasing at an exponential pace since 2002. According to a latest estimate, the contract value of completed projects has gone up from about 11 Billion USD in 2002 to 77 Billion in 2009 (seven folds). Continue (继续)

House Inventory in First Tier Cities Historically Low (一线城市房产存货紧张)

Feb 22

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

According to a latest estimate, the new home inventory in China’s first tier cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou) are at a lowest level since 2007. Continue (继续)

China’s Property Bubble – A tale of two poles (泡沫的牛熊大战)

Feb 20

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Property China (房产透视) | No Comments

Is China’s Property sector having a serious bubble after increasing 30% of price in 2009? The answer seems very obvious. In fact some observers already voiced concerns on China’s property sector, particularly as Jim Chanos and Andy Xie (See Article from Forbes). However, when there is a bear, there will be a bull. Notably Real Estate investment powerhouse Cohen & Steels (Click here for an Interview with Luke Sullivan, the senior president of C&S), and two research analysts from Credit Suiss (See Article from Forbes) voiced a super bullish call for China’s property sector and its equities. In the Credit Suiss report, the analysts opinioned that ‘Chinese real estate is the most undervalued among China, India, Singapore and Hong Kong’. I don’t know how they come to their conclusions ( Continue (继续)

China’s Learning Curve in WTO (按规则办事)

Feb 20

Posted by Wushu in Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

China joined World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Between 2001 and 2008, China only filed two cases regarding trade disputes through WTO. However, since then, China has filed five more (See Article from Economist). Clearly China is learning the rule of WTO fast. In fact such a trend is consistent with the international environment change – USA and EU used to file at least 50% of the WTO arbitration cases in the past. During the last two years, however, the dominance of case filing has been replaced by emerging economies. I see it as a positive thing as the whole purpose of WTO is to solve trade dispute through a legitimate and reasonable way within a legal framework. We should always remember that it is better to resolve a dispute based on some ‘rules’ than getting it sort out naturally, which inevitably result in violence and power struggle. Continue (继续)

CIC hires three fund managers to tap Private Equity Market (中投钟情私募)

Feb 20

Posted by Wushu in Corp China (公司动态), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

China Investment Corp has hired three companies, including Goldman Sachs, Lexington Partners, and Pantheon Ventures to find good opportunities in private equity markets (See Article from WSJ). Each of the three firms will be given USD 500 Million to manage, creating a natural competition in between. This is a latest step of CIC to diversify its USD 300 Billion Asset after the recent investment in Apax, A British Private Equity Fund (See Article from Chinatells).

中投公司最近宣布，聘用三家私募基金，GS, Lexington和Pantheon来管理其一部分资金。三家公司每家被给与5亿美元在私募基金市场兴风作浪。若干年之后又回过头来看看他们的业绩可能会得出有趣的结论。

Is Government thinking of tightening? (货币收紧随时来临？)

Feb 15

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s Central Bank announced to increase the Bank’s reserve ratio by another 0.5% in Feb 2010 to 16.5% for big banks (See Article from Bloomberg). Such a rate increase is the second time in the month and has caused a lot of suspicion in the market (See Article from NYT). Continue (继续)

Investment contributes most of GDP Growth in 2009 (09年经济增长主要靠投资)

Feb 15

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

The contribution of domestic investment has made an unprecedented contribution to the GDP growth of China in 2009, amounting to 92.3% of the GDP growth. Continue (继续)

China Money Growth continues to slow down in January (1月货币增量有所缓和)

Feb 15

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s monetary growth continues to slow down in January of 2010. According to the Bureau of Statistics, the M2 growth slows down to 26% y-o-y from 27.7% in Dec. Continue (继续)

China PPI in January ticking up (生产者物价指数领涨)

Feb 15

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | 1 Comment

China’s PPI in January increased by 4.3% y-o-y, which for the first time crossed over the CPI increase in the same month (1.5%). China’s CPI and PPI have turned positive since Dec 09. Continue (继续)

To short China on 2 Trillion Reserve (历史重演的杯具)

Feb 12

Posted by Wushu in Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点) | No Comments

China is a phenomenon in 21 century. However, it is never clear whether one should long or short China as of today. Jim Chanos, a successful hedge fund manager, influenced by a recent Pivot Capital report, starts to get bearish on China and feels that China’s asset bubble is ‘1000 times worse than that of Dubai’. Thomas Friedman, a New York Times columnist, argues back by stating that ‘I will never short a country with 2 Trillion Reserve in the central bank’. Michael Pettis is obviously furious about Friedman’s article and nail down the argument with a convincing piece (See Article from China Financial Market). Pettis argues that China’s 2 Trillion+ reserve is no doubt huge in terms of the percentage to Global GDP. However, in history the 30s US and 80s Japan had experienced similar numbers of reserve and both ended up in tears. In fact, the record reserve is more of a time bomb worth worrying as it is likely to result in over liquidity of domestic credit and excessive capacity. Continue (继续)