According to a research report released by Citibank, the biggest change to take place in the first half of 21st century is the rise of Asia (ex Japan) and the fall of US and Europe in terms of GDP composition. According to the estimate done by Citibank’s economists, the weight of Emerging Asia countries’s GDP (added together) Read the rest of this entry »
Investment bankers used to be the focal point of jealousy in China, probably same as in any other part of the world. Starting from 2012, however, the wind seems to have changed course. As illustrated from the above table, China (A Share market)’s IPO volume peaked in 2010, when the stock exchange floated companies worth more than 450 billion yuan. Since then, however, the regulator has tightened the tap and it was getting more and more difficult to get floated in the domestic A share market Read the rest of this entry »
Is China’s equity cheap? A lot of people tend to ask this question. Of course this is not that an easy question to answer, as “cheap” is a highly relative and subjective concept, and has so many different interpretations from various perspectives. Here I compare some of the commonly used valuation (12 months forward PE, trailing PB and return on equity) across different regions (as of May 2013). Read the rest of this entry »
It seems that China is in the process of engineering a soft landing scenario successfully. The Industrial production in April 2013 posted a reasonable growth of 9.3%, while the fixed asset investment again was above 20% year on year. China has been relying heavily on the fixed asset investment for its growth profile and is likely to continue to depend heavily on this formula to generate further growth. Read the rest of this entry »
Think you are in a quiet corner of London? Not at all. This is “Thames Town” in Song Jiang District of Shanghai. Last month I had an opportunity to visit the town with my cousins.
My first impression was that the town was really big. I did not count the number of houses there but I estimated that it could take us easily 20 – 30 minutes to go through the whole town, in cars. The style of the buildings was impressive, even to those who have lived in London before. Literally you can barely tell the difference between “Thames Town” and the true London. The whole town was constructed in such a high quality copy style that you feel like walking on those small streets full of pebbles that have gone through hundreds of years. From streets to streets, you can even see guards standing at the entrance of some villas in the traditional English style uniforms, with a yellow face though.
My next feeling was that the town was really empty. The only people who were active there were those young couples who were busy taking their wedding photos, and the property agents who were trying to sell houses there. I seldom saw any residents. To be fair, it is probably not an ideal place for people to live there. First it is in Song Jiang, a suburban area in Southwestern Shanghai. If you have a job in the down town or CBD, it is probably not that convenient for you to drive back and forth on a daily basis, which could easily take you one hour plus one way depending on the traffic. Read the rest of this entry »
China’s equity market has been a laggard for at least the past 3 years. For example, between 2011 and 2012, China H returned -8% for the investors, while S&P returned +16% for the same period. In 2013 at the time of writing (May 14), China H returned -2% while S&P returned another +16.5%. No wonder a lot of money managers, especially from the West, dislike China.
The common arguments to suggest a bearish view on China include the following:
1. China invested too much and consumed too little. Evidence includes the empty city (ie, Ordos) and shopping malls built in the country, and a massive property bubble (ie, 1000 times Dubai to quote Jim Chanos, one of a vocal China bears).
2. The shadow banking system in China, which is off the balance sheet of the banks. No one knows exactly the scale of the shadow banks but it feels big, especially given that Chinese authorities (ie, the central bank) continue to deny the potential bad loan from this sector (it kind of becomes a custom that the more Chinese authority denies something, the more credible it becomes). Read the rest of this entry »
此文原载于联合早报。
2012年可能注定会成为与众不同的一年。从玛雅神话的预言说起，可能很多人还都在惴惴不安地等待12月12日那一刻的到来。在这一年，世界上几个最有影响力的国家，比如美国、中国、俄罗斯等都完成了最高领导层的交替（或选举）。同时在这一年，世界主要发达国家的金融市场，比如美国和欧洲等，也似乎基本没有太平过，接连不断地被诸如欧债危机和财政悬崖之类的担忧引发震荡。在这个热闹的一年接近尾声的时候，我们还有可能经历更多的金融冲击么？在笔者看来，这个小概率事件很可能来自于日本。
笔者在数月前发表的一篇《联合早报》的文章中就指出过，日本目前的财务状况就像是一个定时炸弹，即使没有近忧，也肯定有远虑。造成这几个远虑的主要因素大致概括起来就是：一、人口老龄化，人口增长率已经过了峰值，甚至目前全国的死亡率还高于婴儿出生率；二、多年累积的财政赤字，造成政府不得不高筑债台以弥补亏缺；三、越来越多的政府债务造成恶性循环，财政收入中用于支付利息的部分越来越高；四、经济常年处于零或者负增长，导致政府收入不增反降。
以上一些问题日本常年有之，但似乎也未发生危机。其实这就是笔者之前提到的“定时炸弹”比喻的缘由，即“不是不爆，时候未到”。但是最近发生的几件事情，似乎加速了这个炸弹被引爆的风险。 Read the rest of this entry »
Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on Macro Economy and Equity Market.
伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表对宏观经济的看法。
Wu Zhijian was being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on European debt crisis, Oil price and Equity Market.
伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表他对欧债危机和石油价格的看法。
日本债务倒计时 (Countdown on Japanese’s Debt Time bomb)
此文原载联合早报
在金融世界，有许多书面道理无法解释的奇特现象，日本的政府债券即为一例。日本是全世界负债最高的政府之一，其公共债务高达国民生产总值的200%左右（美国中央情报局在2011年的估计），和津巴布韦相当（230%），高于深陷债务危机的欧洲诸国如希腊（165%）、爱尔兰（108%）和意大利（120%）。
然而，日本政府却比这些欧洲政府幸运得多，可以用极低的利率（10年期债券殖利率目前低于1%），从金融市场上借债以弥补其财政赤字（相比较而言，希腊的10年期债券殖利率高达27%），同时日元还被视作避险资产，屡屡在金融市场动荡不安的时候，成为众多投资者青睐的货币（如2008年的金融危机）。
对于日本政府在如此高负债的情况下，仍能享受极低利率这个令人费解的现象，有过许多解释。比如有些经济学家认为，这主要是日本政府的债务多为本国人购买（超过90%），同时日本是贸易顺差国，其外汇储备仅次于中国，并且在过去几十年积累了大量的海外净资产。由于其高额的政府债务都是以日元计，因此只要日本央行肯发行足够的日元，就不存在赖账的风险。再加上日本已经多年处于通货紧缩的状态，即使债券只给出1%的利息，在物价下降的环境下，持有债券还是可以保住购买力，对投资者来说比较划算。
上述这些解释应该说都有一定的道理，可能也部分解释了为什么过去几十年，日本债券价格持续坚挺的原因。但是其中有一些因素在最近也开始发生变化，从而提高了日债价格逆转的可能性。
这个变化主要要从日本去年的地震海啸说起。由于地震引发海啸，并且导致福岛核电站的核泄漏，日本政府决定关闭全国所有的核电站。这样一来，全国的能源供应只能依靠传统的煤和天然气发电。日本由于自身自然资源的匮乏，只能依靠进口来获得这些能源原料。从核电站关闭的决定实施以来，日本每个月的天然气、煤和石油进口连续上升，导致原本的贸易顺差转变为当前的贸易逆差。对于以出口为导向的日本经济来说，这不啻为一个巨大的逆反。 Read the rest of this entry »
This article was originally published on Business Times
There seems little doubt that China is entering a period of slower growth. From the top line level, the headline GDP growth rate in Q1 has been reported to decrease to a new lower level of 8.1%, which is unseen since 2008. China’s premier Wen Jiabao also lowered the government’s economic growth target to 7.5% back in March, the first time in the last 8 years.
On more micro levels, different data series seem to confirm such a trend as well. For example, the HSBC China PMI has been indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing activity for at least the past six months. The national power consumption growth and the railway freight growth, both the closely watched indicators which arguably give a better gauge of Chinese economy’s real picture, also have been declining since the beginning of the year.
In addition, the pain is also felt on the local level. During a trip of mine to China last week, for example, I was told by a regional manager of an Internationally renowned luxury automobile company that they are seeing the sales of this year to plummet dramatically compared to last year and he was even instructed by his superior to lower their cost either via reducing their wage bills (for at least 20%) or cutting their overheads. Another law firm partner concurred by indicating that their advisory and consulting business to multinational companies in Shanghai and Beijing saw a drop of revenue for at least 30% this year compared to last year. Read the rest of this entry »
China used to be the most powerful country in the world, long time ago. The world dominance of China started to shrink in 1900s and the middle kingdom continued to weaken throughout the 20th century. However, it seems that the powerhouse is starting to fight back.
我朝在1000年前屹立于世界之巅，但从1900年开始我朝愈发微弱。但从80年改革开放以来，我朝又开始威武了。
此文原载联合早报 (This article was originally published on Lianhe Zaobao)
从2009年年末希腊债券殖利率开始上升算起，欧债危机已经陆陆续续上演了接近三年。在这三年中，全球各大经济及其资本市场，均在不同程度上受到危机的影响。尽管上周末希腊举行的大选，让倾向于用改革换援助的新民主党以微弱多数上台，暂时保住了希腊不在短时间内离开欧元区，但我们似乎还是看不到解决这场旷日持久的金融危机的希望。
广大金融投资者最为关心的问题之一，可能是这场危机的根源到底在哪里。毕竟只有找对了问题的根源，才可能提出有效的解决办法。当然这个问题也不是那么简单就可以回答，坐在不同的位置上，自然会给出不同的答案。比较常见的解释，多集中在欧元区核心国（即德法两国）和欧元区边缘国（即所谓的猪猡国家）之间的矛盾冲突，即核心国财务健康经济实力雄厚，边缘国举债过多增长乏力；核心国迫于国内压力，无法对边缘国进行不求回报的大幅救助，而边缘国唯一的选择，只能是缩衣节食减少债务。
这样的分析看似有理，但却不一定完整。在笔者看来，这次欧债危机的最深层原因，可能不在于核心和边缘国的矛盾，而还在于其核心国，即德法两国之间的分歧。此话还要从历史上的德法关系说起。 Read the rest of this entry »
The CEO of Woodsford Capital Management and the managing editor of www.chinatells.com, Mr Wu Zhijian gave his view about European debt crisis and American economy on Reuters ET. (Starting at around 5′ minutes)
伍治坚对欧洲和美国经济发表看法。(5分钟左右开始)
The Power Generation in China still grows at a staggering pace. Note that it took UK 150 years to reach 85 Gigawatt per year.
英国用了150年才达到每年发电85兆瓦，中国现在每年都超过80兆瓦。
China’s heavy investment in infrastructures, such as Highway, Railway, and Metro (Urban Public Transit) continues.
中国的基础设施建设方兴未艾，继续高速发展.
China is now way ahead in terms of world’s shipping volume. In 2010, among the world’s largest 10 container ports, 6 are out of China. Shanghai now is the World’s biggest container port, handling more containers per year than Singapore or Hong Kong. Another fact worth noting is that 9 out of world’s 10 busiest container ports are all in Asia – tells something about where the future is?
在2010年世界十大集装箱港口排名中，中国有6个港口入围。如果算上其他亚洲港口，世界上最忙的10个港口有9个在亚洲。看来金融危机对欧美经济的打击确实不小。
Recently the housing price in China seemed to have calmed down. However, it is probably still too high considering the price of the house to the income level of the local residents. It is estimated that Dalian and Hangzhou have the highest (housing) price to income ratio in China. Internationally the price to income ratio need to come down to below 8 for houses to become affordable – in China only Changsha and Dongguan seem to be affordable under this criteria.
中国的房价是否还太高？上面这幅图可以给我们一些解答。根据国际水平，房价和收入比低于8才能满足大部分人的购房需求。在中国，大部分城市的房价收入比仍旧远高于8，因此最近房价的下跌似乎没有起到让老百姓买得起房的作用。
China’s GDP growth is heavily dependent on the use of Steel, which has been growing steadily in the past 20 years. Such a fact showed how reliant China’s growth is on infrastructure building and property development in the past two decades.
中国经济在过去二十年的增速和基础设施以及房地产的开发是分不开的。根据一些研究机构的报告显示，每年中国GDP增长需要依靠越来越多的钢材，显示出中国经济增长的真正来源。
During the last 10 years, China has become the de facto engine for world commodity demands. As of 2010, China accounted for 61.5% of world’s Iron Ore demand and 58.5% of World’s soybean demand. China is also one of the largest importer of other products such as coal and oil. It would be scary to imagine the impact on world commodity price if China slows down.
在过去十年中，中国成为了世界上的商品大王。在一些大宗商品中，比如铁矿石和大豆，中国的需求超过了世界总需求的一半还多。还有其他商品也都是中国需求占引领地位。如果中国增速慢下来，很难想象大宗商品的价格会受到怎样的冲击。
A very good video clip from Business Insider to talk about the difference between China and India. Democracy and Economic development, which comes first? It seems that the China way is winning the argument for the moment.
中印之间的对比其中最大的分别就在于民主和经济发展，哪个先搞?这两个地球上人口最多的大国采取的是两种截然不同的方式，因此产生了截然不同的结果。目前看来，似乎中国的方式更加有效。
China never stops surprising me.
One of the key reasons for such confusion, I guess, is the pace of change that has taken place in the past twenty years. When I was growing up in shanghai, I was told that china was lead by a ruling party called the communists, who claimed themselves to represent the best interests of the working class, and who defined china as a socialist country. Yet after 1989, china opened up at an increasing pace and in many aspects showed more capitalistic color than any European country. Naturally the question is raised: so what is china really?
Maybe this is too big a question for me, and probably there is never a correct answer. But I find it helpful to try the following definition: china is at an infant stage of a capitalist society. The animal spirit has been unleashed, and the rule of fittest to survive has been widely accepted. Today’s china arguably resembles the period of industrial revolution of the great Britain: productivity is being largely improved accompanied by urbanization, while the benefit of growth is extremely unevenly distributed among the winners and the losers. Also due to the extremely fast pace of change, the development and implementation of social rules is too slow to catch up with the change.
Read the rest of this entry »
如果要用一个词语简单的概括2011年的全球金融市场，那么“欧债危机”可能具有相当的代表性。在过去的一年中，不管是股票、债券还是外汇投资者，似乎都要看欧洲的脸色行事。如果欧洲债务危机得到一定程度的缓解，各类风险资产便有很大的机会得到升值，反之亦然。
进入2012年，旷日持久的欧债危机是否会发生一些新的变化呢？在笔者看来，这个问题的答案既为是，亦为否。
先来看“是”的部分。欧债危机的新旧阶段的分水岭，当划分在2011年11月1日，即欧洲央行新任总裁德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的上任时间。俗话说新官上任三把火，德拉吉上任以来还不到三个月，但却已经实施了一些大刀阔斧式、前任行长特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）没有施行的新政策，总结下来有以下几条。
首先德拉吉在他上任后的第一次和第二次央行会议上，分两次将欧元基准利率从 1.5%下调到目前的1%，间接否认了前任行长特里谢在2011年上半年升息的政策。要知道欧洲央行一向以对待通胀威胁的严谨态度著称，即使在2008年 金融危机的时候，其基准利率也没有低过1%。这也是为什么特里谢在2011年上半年全球经济似乎还没有明显企稳，但似乎又有通胀隐忧的情况下，先于其他央 行急急升息的重要原因之一。但是德拉吉上任伊始就毫不犹豫将前任偏紧的货币政策逆转，可见其应对危机的决心。 Read the rest of this entry »
IS China’s housing price expensive? Depends. Expensive is always a relative concept. This chart compares the housing price in a lot of Chinese cities to that of the United States, and it seems that the housing prices in two countries are quite similar.
中国房价贵么？要看你怎么看了。贵和便宜一直是一个相对概念。这张图表对比了中国和美国十几个大城市的平均房价。看起来似乎中美两国的房价差不多。
Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
WCM
Chinatells (主页)