China Tells

China’s Industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment continues healthy growth in Sept 09. The industrial production increased 12.9% y-o-y in September, which is the highest in the last 12 months. It seems the stimilus program is having a very positive impact on manufactuers and the production is not affected hugely despite a slow down in export. The Fixed Asset investment, in the meanwhile, grew 35% y-o-y. China has always relied heavily on Fixed Asset investment instead of consumption for its GDP growth. Most of such Fixed Asset Investment comes from Government investments in heavy industries such as railway and power grid.

中国的工业产值和固定资产投资在9月份继续快速增长。这和中央宽松的财政和货币政策密不可分。在一般情况下，如果出口经济受打击，工厂存货增加，制造商理应减少生产并且优先清理存货。但是中央的刺激政策给了制造商一根生命线，以至于在欧美日等外部需求不振的情况下工厂还能继续开工。这样做的好处是保住了就业，但是潜在的威胁是这么多过剩产能总有一天不能被疲弱的需求消化。目前看来最大的希望还是欧美复苏，这样中国巨大的产能才有可能被外部需求吸收。