China Tells

最近有部美国大片叫2012,说的是根据有关预测地球到2012年行将毁灭.根据谢国忠最新的论调,他预测2012年也是中国房地产的转折年(点击此处阅读谢国忠博客). 因为目前中国的资产受到追捧,大家又有人民币升值的预期,因此国际资本,特别是受惠于美国低利率的游资,将中国视为投资’低洼’,这些热钱促成了国内资产泡沫的形成.同时谢国忠认为人民币汇率升值不能解决全球经济不平衡的问题,在当前的汇率下,很多出口商已经考虑搬家,如果人民币再升值,那中国出口行业将受到重创.

According to Andy Xie, China’s property and equity bubble is likely to burst by 2012. Due to the low interest policy in the States and expectation on RMb’s appreciation, hot money sees China an attractive destination for speculation. Such an expectation pushes up the bubble of asset price in China. But it shall burst sooner or later, in most cases with tears.