There are some concerns about the inflation threat in China. The CPI and PPI have been watched closely but not shown any sign of inflation yet (See Graph from Chinatells). However, few people would have forseen that the best performing asset in China of 2009 is Garlic (See ARticle from Economist). Apparently the price of Garlic in JinXiang, which is the main Garlic growing and exporting area of China, has increased by 40 times since March. In addition, the wholesale garlic price in big cities has increased by ten times. No other asset class is even remotely comparable to the price gain in Garlic (See ARticle from the Australian). There are different explanations on the volatility of Chinese garlic’s price. Some refer to the monetary liquidity in China, others point out that it is due to the under invesment in garlic industry in the previous years.
如果要问09年买啥最赚钱,可能很少人会想到是大蒜。确实,大蒜的涨价风潮出乎所有人的预料:从三月份开始,金乡大蒜的出产价整整上升了40倍!同时在批发和零售市场,大蒜的价格也水涨船高。大蒜价格如此巨大的波动性引来各种猜测,如温州炒房团的介入以及中间商的恶意囤货等等,同时也引发一些学者对于通胀的担忧。
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
WCM
#1 by chinese-garlic on April 24, 2010 - 9:06 AM
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2010年大蒜价格会更疯狂!
#2 by Wushu on April 24, 2010 - 2:43 PM
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何以见得?其他农产品的价格似乎都降了不少,看不出大蒜有何与众不同的地方。
#3 by Chinese Garlic on June 13, 2010 - 9:28 AM
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回二楼的,今年大蒜从蒜农手里的收购价已经到7元/千克了,也就意味着出库价在10元/千克才有正常利润。
下面是四个理由,引自:http://www.hcgarlic.com/chinese-garlic-costs-more-than-pork.html
1.Lasting cold weather which lowered vegetable production;
2.Rising cost of labor and materials relating to agriculture;
3.Growing fuel prices that brought up transportation cost;
4. Hot money that possibly flew into the circulation of garlic business.