China Tells

China is a big country with a lot of mysteries and wonders. It is no exception in the reading of car sales data. China has surpassed USA to be world’s biggest new car sales market in 2009 (See Graph from Chinatells). However, at the same time the sale of petrol products has not increased accordingly (See Article from Economist). There are a lot of potential explanations to such discrepancy: 1) the data is not accurate; 2) Chinese are buying more fuel efficient cars and driving less (advised by Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Bank); 3) Conspiracy theory that Chinese government is buying the cars and store them in the car park (advised by Gordon Chang).

The 3rd explanation seems a bit wild and crazy. It is also contrary to the common sense that if local governments do buy cars, there is no reason for them not to use them. There are some merits in the first explanation, as data accuracy from China is always in question, but with an improving trend. The second explanation seems to make a lot of sense, as the fuel price in China has increased by 20% since two years ago. It reminds me of a dilemma to own a car in a city: the minute the owner starts to sit in the driving seat, clock of costs starts to tick: depreciation, gas, parking, congestion charge, roat tax, insurance and maintanence. Probably it is not worth it to own such an expense account with no upside in its principal value.

中国地大物博，因此免不了有许多事情不易从表面解释。比如汽车销售数量就是一个例子。根据统计局的数据，汽车销售每月增长，并且超越美国成为新车第一大市场，但是同时油品的消费量却并没有相应增长。对于这样的反差不同人有不同解读。有人说可能统计数据有误，也有人说是因为中国人集中购买低油耗的小车，甚至有人提出政府买车囤积的大胆猜想。目前看来消费者买了车不开可能是主要原因之一。