China Tells

On every market there are two sides: Buyer and Seller, Bulls and Bears, and that’s where the liquidity is coming from. It is no different in China’s property market. While there are bulls being optimistic about China’s property market, there are big bears with extremely pessimistic views (See Article from Forbes). Victor Shih, a China expert at Northwestern University, even claims that ‘China housing bubble is a ponzi scheme’. According to the bears, there are three signs of a collapsing bubble for China’s housing sector: 1) Developers highly leveraged and highly dependent on easy credit; 2) Government funding via debt and land sales to state owned enterprise; 3) Total outstanding debt ratio too high compared to GDP.

中国房产就是一个迷雾，每个人在其中扮演的角色不同，因此发出的声音也各有千秋。比如最近就有很多唱衰房市的声音，以海外学者为主。主要原因包括目前房地产发展商高度借贷，过度依靠银行低利率贷款，总债务水平很高，以及价格上升过快等等。孰是孰非估计只有靠时间才能检验。