China Tells

Is China’s Property sector having a serious bubble after increasing 30% of price in 2009? The answer seems very obvious. In fact some observers already voiced concerns on China’s property sector, particularly as Jim Chanos and Andy Xie (See Article from Forbes). However, when there is a bear, there will be a bull. Notably Real Estate investment powerhouse Cohen & Steels (Click here for an Interview with Luke Sullivan, the senior president of C&S), and two research analysts from Credit Suiss (See Article from Forbes) voiced a super bullish call for China’s property sector and its equities. In the Credit Suiss report, the analysts opinioned that ‘Chinese real estate is the most undervalued among China, India, Singapore and Hong Kong’. I don’t know how they come to their conclusions (given the fact that they have spent years learning Finance and Accounting in College and probably took a big pain to get CFA), however it just seems so counter-intuitive to me and I don’t even bother to read more. The bottomline, however, is that I still have to impressed by the courage of the analysts from CS – after all, to make a bull call on any asset that has risen 30% in the past 12 months need balls, big balls.

中国房地产是否存在泡沫引来很多人士评头论足。房产泡沫论的阵营里有几个全球知名的经济学家和基金经理，而唱高房产的阵营也不乏支持者。一个有趣的现象是，这次的牛熊之争观点分歧相当明显，简直黑白不两立，让人感觉要看清一件事情的真相还真不是那么容易。