According to the vice governor of People’s Bank of China, Mr. Yi Gang, the return on Gold in the last 30 years is not that great and China will be cautious to increase the holding of Gold (See Article from WSJ). There are large speculations that China is considering reducing the investment in US treasury and convert part of it to Gold. Given the limited amount of tradable gold on the market, however, any significant move from China on back of its record Foreign Reserve will result in a surge of Gold price almost for certain. For the moment China holds about 1054 metric tons of gold, which represents about 1.6% of China’s total Reserve (See Graph from Chinatells).

近年来市场经常猜测中国政府会主动增持黄金，用来替代逐渐减少的美国国债。跟美元或者国债相比，黄金的生产不是美国政府能够随便控制的，因此其价值应该更趋稳定。但是增持黄金也有不少实际的难处。比如世界上的大部分黄金主要由美国政府，国际货币基金组织和一些欧洲国家银行持有，只要他们不卖，市场上可以买到的黄金数量就很有限。因此任何想增持黄金的举动，都可能造成黄金价值大幅波动。同时黄金没有利息，因此在没有通胀或者通缩的预期之下，其保值功能经常不及其他投资工具。

  • Share/Bookmark