China Tells

Stephen Roach (MS) and Jim Chanos (Kynikos) discussed their opposing views on the outlook of China’s economy. Stephen Roach is a CHINA BULL in the sense that he thinks there is a lot more in the ammunition arsenal that the government can do to stimulate the domestic economy by boosting the consumer demands. Jim Chanos, on the other hand, is a CHINA BEAR believing that the over investment has resulted in a huge asset bubble that is about to burst any time. Chanos has an interesting calculation: according to the China government’s official statistics, about 50% of the population has registered as city residents. Among the other half (650 million people), about 200 – 300 million are migrant workers who stay in the cities anyway. Therefore the only additional demand to buy more properties are the left over 300 million who are still living in the suburbs, whose purchasing power is in large question. Stephen does not buy such argument in believing that a 2008 like correction (GDP growth dropped to 6.1%) is going to invite more government stimulus package which will hold the economy firm for the next few years.

史提夫罗琦和吉姆查诺斯就中国经济前景展开公开讨论。罗琦对中国的经济前景表示乐观，坚信政府还有很多手段可以施展来刺激国内经济，并将经济增长模式从出口和投资导向转向消费导向。查诺斯是有名的娼衰派，他觉得中国的资产泡沫已经吹得很大，并且随时有破灭的可能性。