China Tells

I have pointed out in a previous post that it is a mind blower to trade RMB on the NDF market. If you think that RMB is a free lunch on the table for investors to bet on the seemingly one way direction, well the market likes you as a guest. During the past week RMB surprised most trades by coming off from its recent high and returned most gains that she has gained in the past month. So where is the complaint and pressure from US congressmen? And where is the IMF or World Bank report claiming a 30% RMB undervaluation? Nowadays almost any renowned economist will tell you that RMB is undervalued and it is to China’s benefit to let RMB appreciate. The benefits could go on a long list such as increased purchasing power of Chinese consumers, global rebalancing between trading partners, less reliance on export oriented growth and political pressure from Obama. However, to express a view and to profit from it is totally two different things. The recent move of RMB has taught an important lesson that: opinion is free, but to make a correct investment decision is totally a different ball game.

人民币对美元的币值一直以来被视作世上少有的无悬念事件，早晚要升值，不是快升就是慢升。因此人民币远期市场上的交易大多以看多为主，只是看多的程度有所不同。最近一个星期人民币币值不声不响来了个闷跌，把前一个月的升值全都跌回去了。我在此前一篇文章中已经解释过赌人民币升值不如去赌马，可能中奖的概率还高点。其中有许多原因。对于围观的观众来说，人民币升值从外围来看热热闹闹，但是真的想要从中获利那就纯粹是另外一门学问了。