Archive for category Equity China (股市风云)

Difficult time for China’s Investment Banks (投行家也没有余粮)

May 17

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角) | No Comments

Investment bankers used to be the focal point of jealousy in China, probably same as in any other part of the world. Starting from 2012, however, the wind seems to have changed course. As illustrated from the above table, China (A Share market)’s IPO volume peaked in 2010, when the stock exchange floated companies worth more than 450 billion yuan. Since then, however, the regulator has tightened the tap and it was getting more and more difficult to get floated in the domestic A share market Read the rest of this entry »

Is China’s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?

May 17

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角) | No Comments

Is China’s equity cheap? A lot of people tend to ask this question. Of course this is not that an easy question to answer, as “cheap” is a highly relative and subjective concept, and has so many different interpretations from various perspectives. Here I compare some of the commonly used valuation (12 months forward PE, trailing PB and return on equity) across different regions (as of May 2013). Read the rest of this entry »

Don’t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)

May 14

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角) | No Comments

China’s equity market has been a laggard for at least the past 3 years. For example, between 2011 and 2012, China H returned -8% for the investors, while S&P returned +16% for the same period. In 2013 at the time of writing (May 14), China H returned -2% while S&P returned another +16.5%. No wonder a lot of money managers, especially from the West, dislike China.

The common arguments to suggest a bearish view on China include the following:

1. China invested too much and consumed too little. Evidence includes the empty city (ie, Ordos) and shopping malls built in the country, and a massive property bubble (ie, 1000 times Dubai to quote Jim Chanos, one of a vocal China bears).

2. The shadow banking system in China, which is off the balance sheet of the banks. No one knows exactly the scale of the shadow banks but it feels big, especially given that Chinese authorities (ie, the central bank) continue to deny the potential bad loan from this sector (it kind of becomes a custom that the more Chinese authority denies something, the more credible it becomes). Read the rest of this entry »

China’s Electric Car Incentive (电动汽车前景诱人)

Dec 27

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China is one of the countries that offer the greatest incentives to electric cars in the world (Click HERE for a related Story). Based on the latest data, China offers an incentive of about 8800 US Dollar for every unit of electric cars, only second to Denmark who offers almost 20,000 USD for every unit of green car. Read the rest of this entry »

China’s Bank Loan likely to breach quota in 2010 (贷款洪潮)

Dec 23

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

It looks likely that China’s bank loan this year will exceed the quota again. For 2010 China banks have a loan quota of 7.5 trillion RMB for the whole year. By the end of Oct, a total loan of 6.8 trillion has already been made. For 2 months to go before the year end, it would be very difficult for the country’s banks to keep the loan within the quota (Click HERE for an Article on this subject). Read the rest of this entry »

China’s PE: All About IPO (要圈钱，去股市)

Dec 21

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), PE China (私募风投), Stats China (统计图表) | 1 Comment

How does China’s PE get out of their investment? The answer is simple: IPO. In 2010 up till November, 86.1% of the nation’s PE exit their investment through IPO. There are also other types of exits such as M&A, Ownership transfer and Buy Back. Read the rest of this entry »

Internet the big winner of China VC Investment (互联网的第二次革命)

Dec 21

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Internet becomes the sexy baby of China’s VC investment again, at least in 2010. Up till November, VC funds have invested a total of more than 500 million USD in China’s Internet sector. Such an investment mania is not that surprising following the success of Youku, Tudou and Alibaba. The next to follow is Clean Tech (more than 450 million) Read the rest of this entry »

A mania of VC in China (风险投资盛宴中华)

Dec 21

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), PE China (私募风投), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

VC funds have had a great year in China in 2010. Every time I talk to some friends in PE or VC industry in China, I get the feeling that there are so many liquidity in the country chasing projects. For example, a website designing cartoons without any unique edge can easily be chased after by several RMB or USD funds with millions of cheque in hand. Read the rest of this entry »

2010 IPO is all about Banks (炒股先炒银行股)

Dec 17

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

Now that it is almost at the end of the year, probably it is a good idea to do a summary of IPO market in Hongkong. According to the stats that we collect, in 2010 HK stock market has raised a total of about 410 Billion HKD. About 60% of the fund raised are in financial sector (mainly big banks from China), followed by Material and Consumer Discretionary. Read the rest of this entry »

IPO is all about China (要上市来中国)

Dec 13

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

IT is all about China when the market comes to IPO. You might not believe it or don’t like it. However, the fact is, if you look at the top ten IPOs in the past 10 years, it is all about China (almost):

The World’s Largest IPO since 2000
Company	IPO Date	Fund Raised (USD Bn)	Domicile
ABC	Dec-08	$19,222	China
ICBC	Feb-06	$19,112	China
AIA	May-10	$17,729	HK
VISA	Nov-07	$17,052	USA
GM	Aug-10	$15,774	USA
CCB	Aug-07	$15,681	China
SMIC	Feb-04	$14,012	HK
BOC	Aug-05	$12,195	China
Shenhua Energy	Sep-07	$11,798	China
Dai-ichi	Feb-10	$10,912	Japan

Source: Bloomberg

过去10年如果讲上市，就不得不提中国。上表提供了过去10年在全球上市的最大的10家公司，其中7家来自中国。

24 hours of Shanghai Stock Market (股市全球转)

Dec 13

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

It is widely reported that Shanghai’s stock exchange aims to increase the trading hours to 24 hours by 2020 (click here for the story). Whether such a goal is realistic is a topic for another day. However a fact worth noting is the growing market impact of China’s stock market in the past decade. In fact, in the past 7 years, Read the rest of this entry »

On the road to the biggest car nation (朋友你买车了么)

Dec 12

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China is under the way towards an unprecedented big nation of cars. In 2010 China surpassed USA to become world’s biggest country of car sales annually. This trend is poised to continue. According to JP Morgan China will likely have about 140 million cars on the road by 2015. Read the rest of this entry »

Which sector performs well in Inflation (通胀买啥股)

Nov 25

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s latest inflation number (4.4% in Oct Y-o-Y) has caught attention and concern of a lot of people (Click HERE for a story from FT). PBOC has reacted by raising the RRR and interest rate in a seemingly agressive fashion. Which sector is most resillient to inflation becomes the natural question for stock investors. Read the rest of this entry »

Investment Mania back to Stock Market (股市又热)

Nov 3

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

It seems that the investment enthusiasm is back to the stock market. According to the stats from CEIC, the Shanghai stock exchange turn over has continued to climb higher and now is at the historical high. This is particularly relevant in the environment that the government Read the rest of this entry »

PBOC’s rate increase is asymmetrical (看似对称的不对称加息)

Oct 22

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | 2 Comments

On Oct 20, 2010, PBOC announced to increase the interest rate on both deposit and lending sides. Overall it looks like a symetrical increase, as on average both deposit and lending rates have been increased by 25 basis points. However, if one looks into the detail, in fact the rate increase is asymmetrical. For example, Read the rest of this entry »

Chanos: I have never been to China but We are still Short China (查诺斯继续看空中国)

Sep 23

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Macro China (国际视点), Video China (镜下百态) | 1 Comment

Jim Chanos is still bearish on China and still short property stocks and commodity stocks related to China. Obviously Chanos has been hurt recently. However, he still holds his view firm and thinks that China’s building boom will not end up well. Chanos will also show up in the coming movie: Wall Street 2 – Money never sleeps. Interestingly Chanos has never been to China.

查诺斯曾经说过中国房地产泡沫是1000个迪拜。最近他在接受CNBC访问时表示他们继续看空中国。他感觉中国的投资拉动型经济增长会有恶劣的后果。同时他表示自己从来没去过中国，但是显然他做过很多关于中国的细致的研究。

A decade of Emerging Markets (新兴市场十年辉煌)

Aug 23

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

The past ten years can be labeled as the decade of the emerging markets. Based on MSCI World Equity Index, the stock market in emerging markets including China has outperformed that of USA and Japan by far. The best performer is Russian equity market, Read the rest of this entry »

CMB the Biggest Winner on Stock Market (招行股市呼风唤雨)

Jul 18

Posted by Wushu in Corp China (公司动态), Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China Merchant Bank is the best performer in terms of absolute return and relative return to benchmark in the last 12 months, according to a latest study. The share price (H) of CMB has increased about 25% in the last 12 months, and up more than 10% Read the rest of this entry »

Chinese Real Estate Shares valuation at low end (地产股估值处于低价位)

Jul 18

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China Property companies’ share valuation is at the lower end compared to historical records. Since 2003, China’s property stocks have been trading at a multiple between 9X and 60X. The multiple collapsed in end 2008/early 2009 to touch a low in the last 10 years, Read the rest of this entry »

Does it Matter? (投资无差异)

Jun 5

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | 3 Comments

A look back of the stock market in the last 2 years shows that if one invests some money in the US stock market, he would have got exactly the same return as if he had invested in the China’s stock market (Hang Seng Index). The chart shows that the two stock Read the rest of this entry »

Mantel: More downside on China’s Property and Banking sector (房地产和银行股还有下跌空间)

May 29

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表), Video China (镜下百态) | No Comments

Andy Mantel is the Managing Director of Pacific Sun Investment Management Ltd. During an interview with Bloomberg, Andy reckons that there are still downside potential for China’s property and Banking sector. Read the rest of this entry »

China Equity has more downside to go (股市还有下跌空间)

May 28

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

A comparison between China’s equity market and that of Saudi Arab’s shows more potential downside of China’s equity market. Saudi Arab’s equity market started to climb up around 2000 and continues to the top in 2008. During 2008 Saudi’s property bubble burst badly, Read the rest of this entry »

China’s Secret of Growth (增长秘籍)

May 25

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Macro China (国际视点), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

What’s the secret of China’s economic growth in the last two decades? Such is a question that has bothered numerous economists. One of the answers seems to lie in the increase in productivity. Read the rest of this entry »

China’s Property Sector most hit in Q1 (房产股第一季度受重创)

May 22

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Property China (房产透视), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

China’s Property Sector of the stock market has been hit hard during Q1 of 2010. In 2009, MSCI property sector gained about 85%. During Q1 2010, Read the rest of this entry »

Financial Sector is cheap (金融行业股票低估)

May 22

Posted by Wushu in Equity China (股市风云), Investing China (投资视角), Stats China (统计图表) | No Comments

A cross section analysis of China’s stock market shows that the Financial sector now is showing the lowest PE compared to the rest. Read the rest of this entry »