China never stops surprising me.

One of the key reasons for such confusion, I guess, is the pace of change that has taken place in the past twenty years. When I was growing up in shanghai, I was told that china was lead by a ruling party called the communists, who claimed themselves to represent the best interests of the working class, and who defined china as a socialist country. Yet after 1989, china opened up at an increasing pace and in many aspects showed more capitalistic color than any European country. Naturally the question is raised: so what is china really?

Maybe this is too big a question for me, and probably there is never a correct answer. But I find it helpful to try the following definition: china is at an infant stage of a capitalist society. The animal spirit has been unleashed, and the rule of fittest to survive has been widely accepted. Today’s china arguably resembles the period of industrial revolution of the great Britain: productivity is being largely improved accompanied by urbanization, while the benefit of growth is extremely unevenly distributed among the winners and the losers. Also due to the extremely fast pace of change, the development and implementation of social rules is too slow to catch up with the change.
Read the rest of this entry »

如果要用一个词语简单的概括2011年的全球金融市场，那么“欧债危机”可能具有相当的代表性。在过去的一年中，不管是股票、债券还是外汇投资者，似乎都要看欧洲的脸色行事。如果欧洲债务危机得到一定程度的缓解，各类风险资产便有很大的机会得到升值，反之亦然。

进入2012年，旷日持久的欧债危机是否会发生一些新的变化呢？在笔者看来，这个问题的答案既为是，亦为否。

先来看“是”的部分。欧债危机的新旧阶段的分水岭，当划分在2011年11月1日，即欧洲央行新任总裁德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的上任时间。俗话说新官上任三把火，德拉吉上任以来还不到三个月，但却已经实施了一些大刀阔斧式、前任行长特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）没有施行的新政策，总结下来有以下几条。

首先德拉吉在他上任后的第一次和第二次央行会议上，分两次将欧元基准利率从 1.5%下调到目前的1%，间接否认了前任行长特里谢在2011年上半年升息的政策。要知道欧洲央行一向以对待通胀威胁的严谨态度著称，即使在2008年 金融危机的时候，其基准利率也没有低过1%。这也是为什么特里谢在2011年上半年全球经济似乎还没有明显企稳，但似乎又有通胀隐忧的情况下，先于其他央 行急急升息的重要原因之一。但是德拉吉上任伊始就毫不犹豫将前任偏紧的货币政策逆转，可见其应对危机的决心。 Read the rest of this entry »

金融市场似乎永远都不会让人感到厌倦，因为这个世界从来都不平静。从欧元区的债务危机，到中东地区的茉莉花革命，再到最近的日本核危机，投资者似乎总有一些问题要操心。3月11日日本发生的大地震给全球金融市场带来了大幅波动，比如标准普尔500指数在一个星期内跌了5%左右。但是在接下来的一个月中，除了日本国内股市以外，其他各国股市均恢复了年初开始的涨势，有些甚至已经超过了地震前的价位。

股市在这时候发出的信息不容忽略。就最近几个月看来，不管是北非革命，或是葡萄牙寻求欧盟经济援助，或是日本大海啸，似乎都只能对股市产生微弱的短暂影响。在经过一两个星期的调整以后，市场就头也不回继续冲向更高的位置。 Read the rest of this entry »

从历史经验来看，一个国家要摆脱债务危机，似乎有两种方法：快的和慢的。这有点像西医和中医，西医讲求用强效的大剂量对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效，而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法，因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦，但是耗时短见效快，咬牙坚持忍一忍，危机可能就过去了。

对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺一不可。大规模的本币贬值让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Read the rest of this entry »

China has been a successful prototype of managed capitalism in the past 20 years. The government tightly controls the interest rate, FX rate and cross-boarder capital movements so that they navigated the vessel through challenging times such as Asian Financial Crisis in 98 and Great Financial Crisis in 08. However, questions have been repeatedly raised as to the sustainability of such method. The CEO of Woodsford Capital Management, Wu Zhijian expressed his own opinion on Lianhe Zaobao.

中国的经济增长成就在过去的20年中令全世界瞩目。有政府主导的管理型资本主义也成为学术界研究的热门话题 – 即管理型资本主义是否已经战胜自由型资本主义。政府在过去对利率，汇率和跨境资本流动上的管制成功的带领中国经济安然度过各种金融危机。但是这种模式的可持续性不断受到学术界和企业界的怀疑。伍治坚在联合早报上发表了自己的观点。 Read the rest of this entry »

Every time I return to China, there are some interesting and new findings, even though this is where I originally grew up. This time I have spent about a week in Shanghai, with the following points worth reporting:

To start with, I think the so called worry about a jasmine-like revolution to take place in China is grossly misjudged. Yes there are complaints about the current government regarding corruption, unfair or low efficiency. But these are exactly like all the complaints in every country towards their government. In my view there are two key fundamental differences between today’s China and Libya or Egypt:

Firstly, the unemployment rate is low in China. In fact, for sectors such as manufacturing, there is a shortage of labor in most coastal provinces in China. The government has successfully maintained a fast growing economy that requires the employment of large amounts of labor (ie., through construction works). As a result of being employed, people’s income increases (though at different rates). Today most people’s complaints focus on the income gap rather than on poverty. For those who haven’t got rich as quickly as those lucky or resourceful, at least their own wealth has increased rapidly as well compared to 10 years ago – it is just that the growth has not been as fast as those who have done well.

Another misconception is that in fact, China, overall, has an open attitude toward the world rather than a closed one as if often imagined. The Western media has spent a lot of time talking about site blockage of facebook and youtube in China or google’s exit from China. To a certain extent it does reflect the Chinese government’s desire to enforce control on information flow. On the other hand, however, China’s government is also very keen to push internationalization and English education in the country. For example, when I was waiting to draw some cash in a bank, they call the ticket numbers in both English and Chinese. Read the rest of this entry »

As the chairman of the central bank of the world’s most powerful nation, Ben Bernanke has a good reason to be the focus of all. During these two years, however, Bernanke seems to be battling with a huge gamble: a gamble that he has put in all the stake, especially his faith and reputation, and the potential consequence that will likely change the lives of millions of people. Wu Zhijian comments on such a gamble that Bernanke is taking in Lianhe Zaobao.

作为美联储的主席，伯南克的一举一动都处于世界的关注之中。有时候伯南克发表的一小段言论都足以在金融市场搅起各种波澜。那么处在这个旋涡中心的伯南克是否真的如市场传言那样可以随心所欲为所欲为呢？伯南克在最近2年陆续推出的一系列极富争议的政策对他本人来说意味着什么呢？伍治坚在联合早报上的署名文章对此作出了评论。 Read the rest of this entry »