According to a research report released by Citibank, the biggest change to take place in the first half of 21st century is the rise of Asia (ex Japan) and the fall of US and Europe in terms of GDP composition. According to the estimate done by Citibank’s economists, the weight of Emerging Asia countries’s GDP (added together) Read the rest of this entry »
It seems that China is in the process of engineering a soft landing scenario successfully. The Industrial production in April 2013 posted a reasonable growth of 9.3%, while the fixed asset investment again was above 20% year on year. China has been relying heavily on the fixed asset investment for its growth profile and is likely to continue to depend heavily on this formula to generate further growth. Read the rest of this entry »
此文原载于联合早报。
2012年可能注定会成为与众不同的一年。从玛雅神话的预言说起，可能很多人还都在惴惴不安地等待12月12日那一刻的到来。在这一年，世界上几个最有影响力的国家，比如美国、中国、俄罗斯等都完成了最高领导层的交替（或选举）。同时在这一年，世界主要发达国家的金融市场，比如美国和欧洲等，也似乎基本没有太平过，接连不断地被诸如欧债危机和财政悬崖之类的担忧引发震荡。在这个热闹的一年接近尾声的时候，我们还有可能经历更多的金融冲击么？在笔者看来，这个小概率事件很可能来自于日本。
笔者在数月前发表的一篇《联合早报》的文章中就指出过，日本目前的财务状况就像是一个定时炸弹，即使没有近忧，也肯定有远虑。造成这几个远虑的主要因素大致概括起来就是：一、人口老龄化，人口增长率已经过了峰值，甚至目前全国的死亡率还高于婴儿出生率；二、多年累积的财政赤字，造成政府不得不高筑债台以弥补亏缺；三、越来越多的政府债务造成恶性循环，财政收入中用于支付利息的部分越来越高；四、经济常年处于零或者负增长，导致政府收入不增反降。
以上一些问题日本常年有之，但似乎也未发生危机。其实这就是笔者之前提到的“定时炸弹”比喻的缘由，即“不是不爆，时候未到”。但是最近发生的几件事情，似乎加速了这个炸弹被引爆的风险。 Read the rest of this entry »
Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on Macro Economy and Equity Market.
伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表对宏观经济的看法。
Wu Zhijian was being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on European debt crisis, Oil price and Equity Market.
伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表他对欧债危机和石油价格的看法。
日本债务倒计时 (Countdown on Japanese’s Debt Time bomb)
此文原载联合早报
在金融世界，有许多书面道理无法解释的奇特现象，日本的政府债券即为一例。日本是全世界负债最高的政府之一，其公共债务高达国民生产总值的200%左右（美国中央情报局在2011年的估计），和津巴布韦相当（230%），高于深陷债务危机的欧洲诸国如希腊（165%）、爱尔兰（108%）和意大利（120%）。
然而，日本政府却比这些欧洲政府幸运得多，可以用极低的利率（10年期债券殖利率目前低于1%），从金融市场上借债以弥补其财政赤字（相比较而言，希腊的10年期债券殖利率高达27%），同时日元还被视作避险资产，屡屡在金融市场动荡不安的时候，成为众多投资者青睐的货币（如2008年的金融危机）。
对于日本政府在如此高负债的情况下，仍能享受极低利率这个令人费解的现象，有过许多解释。比如有些经济学家认为，这主要是日本政府的债务多为本国人购买（超过90%），同时日本是贸易顺差国，其外汇储备仅次于中国，并且在过去几十年积累了大量的海外净资产。由于其高额的政府债务都是以日元计，因此只要日本央行肯发行足够的日元，就不存在赖账的风险。再加上日本已经多年处于通货紧缩的状态，即使债券只给出1%的利息，在物价下降的环境下，持有债券还是可以保住购买力，对投资者来说比较划算。
上述这些解释应该说都有一定的道理，可能也部分解释了为什么过去几十年，日本债券价格持续坚挺的原因。但是其中有一些因素在最近也开始发生变化，从而提高了日债价格逆转的可能性。
这个变化主要要从日本去年的地震海啸说起。由于地震引发海啸，并且导致福岛核电站的核泄漏，日本政府决定关闭全国所有的核电站。这样一来，全国的能源供应只能依靠传统的煤和天然气发电。日本由于自身自然资源的匮乏，只能依靠进口来获得这些能源原料。从核电站关闭的决定实施以来，日本每个月的天然气、煤和石油进口连续上升，导致原本的贸易顺差转变为当前的贸易逆差。对于以出口为导向的日本经济来说，这不啻为一个巨大的逆反。 Read the rest of this entry »
This article was originally published on Business Times
There seems little doubt that China is entering a period of slower growth. From the top line level, the headline GDP growth rate in Q1 has been reported to decrease to a new lower level of 8.1%, which is unseen since 2008. China’s premier Wen Jiabao also lowered the government’s economic growth target to 7.5% back in March, the first time in the last 8 years.
On more micro levels, different data series seem to confirm such a trend as well. For example, the HSBC China PMI has been indicating a slowdown in the manufacturing activity for at least the past six months. The national power consumption growth and the railway freight growth, both the closely watched indicators which arguably give a better gauge of Chinese economy’s real picture, also have been declining since the beginning of the year.
In addition, the pain is also felt on the local level. During a trip of mine to China last week, for example, I was told by a regional manager of an Internationally renowned luxury automobile company that they are seeing the sales of this year to plummet dramatically compared to last year and he was even instructed by his superior to lower their cost either via reducing their wage bills (for at least 20%) or cutting their overheads. Another law firm partner concurred by indicating that their advisory and consulting business to multinational companies in Shanghai and Beijing saw a drop of revenue for at least 30% this year compared to last year. Read the rest of this entry »
China used to be the most powerful country in the world, long time ago. The world dominance of China started to shrink in 1900s and the middle kingdom continued to weaken throughout the 20th century. However, it seems that the powerhouse is starting to fight back.
我朝在1000年前屹立于世界之巅，但从1900年开始我朝愈发微弱。但从80年改革开放以来，我朝又开始威武了。
此文原载联合早报 (This article was originally published on Lianhe Zaobao)
从2009年年末希腊债券殖利率开始上升算起，欧债危机已经陆陆续续上演了接近三年。在这三年中，全球各大经济及其资本市场，均在不同程度上受到危机的影响。尽管上周末希腊举行的大选，让倾向于用改革换援助的新民主党以微弱多数上台，暂时保住了希腊不在短时间内离开欧元区，但我们似乎还是看不到解决这场旷日持久的金融危机的希望。
广大金融投资者最为关心的问题之一，可能是这场危机的根源到底在哪里。毕竟只有找对了问题的根源，才可能提出有效的解决办法。当然这个问题也不是那么简单就可以回答，坐在不同的位置上，自然会给出不同的答案。比较常见的解释，多集中在欧元区核心国（即德法两国）和欧元区边缘国（即所谓的猪猡国家）之间的矛盾冲突，即核心国财务健康经济实力雄厚，边缘国举债过多增长乏力；核心国迫于国内压力，无法对边缘国进行不求回报的大幅救助，而边缘国唯一的选择，只能是缩衣节食减少债务。
这样的分析看似有理，但却不一定完整。在笔者看来，这次欧债危机的最深层原因，可能不在于核心和边缘国的矛盾，而还在于其核心国，即德法两国之间的分歧。此话还要从历史上的德法关系说起。 Read the rest of this entry »
The Power Generation in China still grows at a staggering pace. Note that it took UK 150 years to reach 85 Gigawatt per year.
英国用了150年才达到每年发电85兆瓦，中国现在每年都超过80兆瓦。
China’s heavy investment in infrastructures, such as Highway, Railway, and Metro (Urban Public Transit) continues.
中国的基础设施建设方兴未艾，继续高速发展.
China is now way ahead in terms of world’s shipping volume. In 2010, among the world’s largest 10 container ports, 6 are out of China. Shanghai now is the World’s biggest container port, handling more containers per year than Singapore or Hong Kong. Another fact worth noting is that 9 out of world’s 10 busiest container ports are all in Asia – tells something about where the future is?
在2010年世界十大集装箱港口排名中，中国有6个港口入围。如果算上其他亚洲港口，世界上最忙的10个港口有9个在亚洲。看来金融危机对欧美经济的打击确实不小。
Recently the housing price in China seemed to have calmed down. However, it is probably still too high considering the price of the house to the income level of the local residents. It is estimated that Dalian and Hangzhou have the highest (housing) price to income ratio in China. Internationally the price to income ratio need to come down to below 8 for houses to become affordable – in China only Changsha and Dongguan seem to be affordable under this criteria.
中国的房价是否还太高？上面这幅图可以给我们一些解答。根据国际水平，房价和收入比低于8才能满足大部分人的购房需求。在中国，大部分城市的房价收入比仍旧远高于8，因此最近房价的下跌似乎没有起到让老百姓买得起房的作用。
During the last 10 years, China has become the de facto engine for world commodity demands. As of 2010, China accounted for 61.5% of world’s Iron Ore demand and 58.5% of World’s soybean demand. China is also one of the largest importer of other products such as coal and oil. It would be scary to imagine the impact on world commodity price if China slows down.
在过去十年中，中国成为了世界上的商品大王。在一些大宗商品中，比如铁矿石和大豆，中国的需求超过了世界总需求的一半还多。还有其他商品也都是中国需求占引领地位。如果中国增速慢下来，很难想象大宗商品的价格会受到怎样的冲击。
China is the second biggest creditor of US, just after Federal Reserve.
中国是继美联储之后美国的第二大债主
Up till June 2011, China has invested directly in all the major continents, with a fairly even spread among all of them.
截至2011年6月，中国对海外的直接投资分布五大洲，在每个主要国家都有踪迹。
According to Heritage Foundation, China’s outward direct investments are spread into sectors of energy, metal, power, transportation and other sectors. Data up to June 2011.
截至2011年6月，中国海外直接投资覆盖各个行业，最大的有能源，金属，运输，金融等行业。
This Article was originally published on Business Times.
A lot has been said about the potential rescue from China to the current European debt mess. For example, Mr Yu Yongding, a former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, wrote in Financial Times (Oct 31, 2011) that “Beijing will not ride to eurozeone’s rescue”.
I would argue the opposite in this article. To understand this issue more deeply, one need to start with a few numbers.
As of Oct 2011, China held a total foreign reserve worth of about 3.2 Trillion US Dollars, with a wide margin ahead of other governments with large foreign reserves such as Japan (less than 1.5 Trillion USD) and Russia (about 500 Billion USD). During January 2011 to September 2011, China has accumulated 354 Billion USD worth of foreign reserve, which was equivalent to about 1.3 Billion USD per day and almost 1 million USD per minute. Read the rest of this entry »
Which countries will be hit hard if China lands hard? According to Maplecroft, There are a list of countries at the extreme risk if China lands improperly, including Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea and Australia.
中国硬着陆影响的不光是中国自己，还有周边一些其他国家。其中有一些国家和中国的相关性极高，因此受影响的可能性最大。这些国家包括新加坡，澳大利亚，韩国和蒙古。
此文原载联合早报
10月31日，希腊总理帕潘德里欧提议举行公投，由希腊全体人民决定是否接受欧洲议会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）给予希腊的债务援助。 在此之前，欧洲债务危机断断续续已经持续了接近两年。希腊总理在这时候抛出这一令人大跌眼镜的怪招，为这场危机的解决又增加了许多不确定因素。
一个重要的问题是，为什么希腊总理要在这时候宣布举行公投？公投在希腊国内有民意支持么？回答这个问题，要从如何治愈希腊债务问题的源头说起。
从历史经验来看，一个国家要摆脱债务危机，似乎有两种方法：速效的和缓慢的。这有点像西医和中医，西医讲求用强效的大剂量，对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效，而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。
绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法，因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦，但是耗时短见效快，咬牙坚持忍一忍，危机可能就过去了。 对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺 一不可。大规模的本币贬值，让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被 过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Read the rest of this entry »
China’s commodity appetite supports the global commodity market. For some of the items, China’s consumption solely determines their price. For example, China consumes more than half of world’s pork, more than 40% of world’s copper, and more than 1/3 of world’s cotton. If China slows down, the demands for all these commodities will slow down.
中国对全球大宗商品的需求是支撑这些商品价格的重要因素。举个例子来说，中国消费了全世界一半以上的猪肉，约40%的铜，以及超过1/3的棉花。如果中国经济受影响，那么这些大宗商品的价格可能都会有明显回落。
During the ten years between 2000 and 2010, the GDP per capita of China has increased dramatically at an annual pace of almost 40% per year. The only big country that has grown faster than China in terms of GDP per capita is Russia. Japan is a major country that has grown the most slowly, with an annual growth rate of slightly above 1% per year.
在2000至2010的10年中，中国的人均GDP从不到1000美元增长到超过4000美元，每年平均增长接近40%。其他发达国家的增速要慢很多。日本最慢，每年差不多1%多一点。
The CEO of Woodsford Capital Management Pte Ltd, Wu Zhijian, has been interviewed by Hedge Week to discuss the regulatory environment in Singapore for Hedge Funds.
伍治坚接受Hedge Week专访并发表对新加坡基金法规环境的看法。
The Interview can be downloaded from HERE.
China’s addiction to GDP growth can be traced back to 1992, more than a decade after the first stirrings of a market economy were launched with the establishment of the special economic zones. The student protests and subsequent clampdown in Tiananmen Square in Beijing in 1989 led many in China’s leadership to question the idea of opening up to the outside world. They worried that the introduction of capitalist-style reforms would inevitably weaken the political structure and so the atmosphere was tight and cautious as China entered the 1990s.
Now technically retired from his role in the leadership, Deng took it upon himself to revitalize the reforms he had first put in motion. On a tour of Shanghai, Shenzhen and other cities that had already seen some of the benefits he foresaw for the country from the reform program, Deng told audiences that for China, “growth is the first principle.” He reassured Communist Party members that the leadership would support local efforts to open up the economy and encouraged everyone to continue with the reforms he had started. The official media gave blanket coverage to the tour and speeches, ensuring that Deng’s words would be taken as party doctrine. Read the rest of this entry »
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Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
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