IS China’s housing price expensive? Depends. Expensive is always a relative concept. This chart compares the housing price in a lot of Chinese cities to that of the United States, and it seems that the housing prices in two countries are quite similar.
中国房价贵么？要看你怎么看了。贵和便宜一直是一个相对概念。这张图表对比了中国和美国十几个大城市的平均房价。看起来似乎中美两国的房价差不多。
How important is China’s property sector to her GDP? What is the contribution of China’s real estate to the country’s economy? A lot of people would say very important. But this graph shows a better picture by quantifying the importance: Continue (继续)
Does China have a property bubble? If so what stage is the bubble at? Will the bubble burst? These are questions that have been debated repeatedly among scholars and market observers, yet with strong divided opinions. One of the reasons for the divided views is that it seems quite difficult to agree on the facts to start with. Take the construction pace, for example. Continue (继续)
It’s been 2 years since the empty city of Ordos has been reported. So what the city looks like after 2 years? This video takes you there.
2年前，内蒙鬼城鄂尔多斯被媒体曝光。2年后的今天，这个城市有什么变化呢？
Recently there is a lot of worry about the outlook of Chinese banks as concerns of property bubble burst continue to grow. If one looks at the exposure of banks to property sector, however, it seems that Chinese property developers and house buyers are not that leveraged compared to Australia and Singapore. The exposure of bank loans to property sector is relatively measured in China.
近来关于中国房地产泡沫破裂的言论尘嚣甚上，也有人因此担心中国银行的安全。但是看一下中国银行贷款对房地产界的贷款率便知，其实中国的房地产开发商和购房者并没有很高的杠杆率，其贷款比和澳大利亚以及新加坡相比要低很多，因此这方面的担心可能是多余的.
Is there a bubble in China’s construction sector? Is the property price over stretched in China? The answer seems to be certain. A lot of people view China’s property sector as a time bomb that will explode sooner or later (Click here for an interview with Jim Chanos, who is very bearish on China). However, the bears have been repeatedly wrong in the past few years. Continue (继续)
China went through a property boom in 2009/10. Yet the concerns on the property bubble are only growing stronger. Above is a video of an empty mall in Southern China.
鄂尔多斯有个空城，东莞有个空楼。这座所谓中国最大的购物大厦至今仍是空空如也，没有什么顾客光顾。
China’s government has launched a few measures to cool down the domestic property mania. One of the measures is to build more social housing (Click HERE for a Reuters Story). The social housing is built to be rented to the low income families who are unable to afford to buy their own home. Accoridng to the release from NDRC, in 2010 the government will increase the building of social housing to about 5 million units, Continue (继续)
Is China’s housing market in a bubble? Will China’s real estate price go up or down? What are the factors behind to support an ever increasing housing price in China? These are all big tough questions. Recently a graph from Credit Suiss caught Chinatells’ attention. Continue (继续)
China’s production of houses has been increasing at least as rapid as the economic growth in the past decade. However, the proportion of economic housing space, which is supposed to be supplied to those who are unable to afford to a house, has continued to decrease on a proportional basis. According to the data from CEIC, the total floor space constructed has increased from around 100 million Continue (继续)
Recently a graph from JP Morgan has caught the attention of Chinatells. According to the stats compiled by JPM, China’s residential land price change (YoY) has always lagged that of GDP, until end of 2009/beginning of 2010. Since then, the land price increase has surpassed that of GDP increase. Continue (继续)
It seems that the pace of Chinese property companies’ acquisition of land has been slowing down since Jan. According to a latest research from Centaline, the land acquisition for the 10 biggest property companies has shrunk from more than 2 million Continue (继续)
The housing price in Shanghai is increasingly unaffordable according to a latest study. The Shanghai housing price affordability index has continued to go up since 2008, reaching almost the high in 2004. An increase in such an index shows Continue (继续)
China Property companies’ share valuation is at the lower end compared to historical records. Since 2003, China’s property stocks have been trading at a multiple between 9X and 60X. The multiple collapsed in end 2008/early 2009 to touch a low in the last 10 years, Continue (继续)
China’s housing price might have more potential to go down rather than go up. A review of the relationship between the price of China’s national property price and Chinese real estate companies listed on A share shows such a trend. Continue (继续)
The recent tightening measure from the central government in the property sector has brought some hope for those who are still short of a flat. Continue (继续)
A cross nation comparison shows that China’s households are not leveraged at all in terms of house mortgage. In the last ten years, Continue (继续)
Andy Mantel is the Managing Director of Pacific Sun Investment Management Ltd. During an interview with Bloomberg, Andy reckons that there are still downside potential for China’s property and Banking sector. Continue (继续)
China’s Housing Price is the highest in the world based on housing price/income ratio and far leads the second runners. According to a latest study, Continue (继续)
China’s Property Sector of the stock market has been hit hard during Q1 of 2010. In 2009, MSCI property sector gained about 85%. During Q1 2010, Continue (继续)
China’s Property price has caused attention from the central government, and the state council has released a series of policies to curb the speculation in property market. Continue (继续)
Two cities in Hainan Province of China lead the property boom in 2009 across the nation. The housing price in Haikou and Sanya went up around 60% y-o-y in 2009, Continue (继续)
According to a recent study, the Rental Yield of properties in Shanghai and Beijing leads that of Asian peers such as Tokyo, Hongkong and Singapore. Continue (继续)
Edward Chancellor is the author of “Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation” (1999), chosen as a New York Times “Notable Book of the Year,” and ranked as one of six indispensable investment classics by Money magazine. He is also editor of “Capital Account: A Money Manager’s Reports on a Turbulent Decade” (2004), a first-hand account of the speculative mania of the late 1990s and its aftermath.
Edward Chancellor has expressed cautious views on China repeatedly in the last five years. The most recent one is a report that Chancellor wrote for GMO White Paper, called ‘China’s Red Flags’ (Read Report from Scribd). In this excellent report, Chancellor highlighted ten aspects of a typical financial bubble. After comparing the current China to these features, Chancellor concluded that China is showing a sign of bubble in most of the aspects that are representative of a bubble, and as a law of nature, bubbles tend to burst sooner or later. Continue (继续)
Andy Xie is an independent economist based in Shanghai, and the former Morgan Stanley star chief Asia-Pacific economist. Andy Xie is famous in the investment circle for his contrarian and provocative views. Xie has a strong view that China is in the process of creating one of the biggest bubbles in history, especially in real estate market. According to Xie, the housing price in China has gone too far away from its intrinsic value way beyond the affordability of Average Joe on the street. To make matters worse, Xie doesn’t see central government’s recent effort to curb housing price effective at all. On the contrary, Xie sees the local government ready to unleash another fresh round of property inflation (Read Article from Caixin) in the near future. By the law of economy, bubble is set to burst, by when the economy will be hit hard and people will suffer.
Despite Xie’s seemingly exaggerating view, I sideline with him that the property bubble in China seems in the formation without a single doubt. The question is when the D day would come, or maybe it will never come as the bubble could be ‘grown’ away given the super bullish outlook of China’s growth prospect. In fact, the China ‘growth’ story is the most frequent, and probably the only robust reason that China Bulls cite when they talk about asset prices in China, be it equity or property. After all, China has delivered a phenomenal story in the past thirty years, which is unthinkable in the box of conventional economic theories. Continue (继续)
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Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
WCM
Chinatells (主页)