Hong Kong is China’s top non-financial FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) Origin. According to the stats from China’s Bureau of Statistics, Hong Kong invested about 41 Billion USD into mainland China in 2008, a 48% increase from that of last year. Continue (继续)
China suapassed Japan to become the top holder of US Treasury Securities. According to the latest data from US Treasury, as of June 2009, China holds more than 800 Billion USD in US Treasury, which is about 25% of total US Treasury Security. China’s total foeign reserve is about 2 Trillion (See Graph HERE). Continue (继续)
China’s Industrial production and Fixed Asset Investment continues healthy growth in Sept 09. The industrial production increased 12.9% y-o-y in September, which is the highest in the last 12 months. It seems the stimilus program is having a very positive impact on manufactuers and the production is not affected hugely despite a slow down in export. Continue (继续)
China government and central bank continues with the loose monetary policy in Sept 09. According to data from People’s Bank of China, China’s M2 grew 29.3% y-o-y in Sept, and China’s RMB Loan grew 34.2% y-o-y. China’s money supply has been growing at more than 15% since Q4 2008. Continue (继续)
China’s healthcare expenditure is quite low compared to most advanced economies in terms of expenditure per capita or the portion in GDP. On a per capita basis, China spends about $94 in health care, compared to $6719 in USA. Continue (继续)
If Every Chinese buys a car, GM, Ford and Chrysler would not have gone bankrupt, at least not so soon. According to data released by China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (See Article from Bloomberg), China’s total vehicle sales amounted to a whopping 1.33 Million units in Sept 2009, including 1.015 million units of Passenger Cars. Continue (继续)
China Investment Corp continues its agressive paces in the hunting for commodity (particularly energy and mining) related companies. In the last two weeks CIC completed two seperate deals with Mongolia mining companies for coals (See Article from WSJ). Continue (继续)
China has been long critisized as the biggest CO2 emission producer, particularly by OECD countries lead by USA. It is backed by the statistics that China’s CO2 emission is now world’s No.1 in total (See graph). According to vaious sources, China’s CO2 emission is either above or below that of USA’s. Continue (继续)
China’s Gini Coefficient equals that of USA’s in 2008.Gini Coefficient is a measure of the gap between Rich and Poor developed by an Italian Statitician. The higher the Gini Coefficient, the wider the gap is between the Rich and the poor, or the higher concentration that wealth is held by the top richest people. Thanks to the fast economic development, a goup of Chinese people benefits from the open policy first and becomes the top richest in the country. Continue (继续)
Japan is China’s top import supplier, with a volume of about 151 Billion USD in 2008, according to the data released by China’s bureau of Statistics. There are five suppliers in Asia Pacific in the top ten list to supply to China. Continue (继续)
USA is China’s top export destination in 2008, with a year-on-year increase of about 8.4% from 2007, according to China’s Bureau of Statistics. The total volume of export from China to USA amounts to $252.3 Billion, followed by Hong Kong and Japan. Continue (继续)
China’s base interest rate was lowered in December 2008 from 5.58% to 5.31% and has been kept at this level till today. The agressive pace of rate cutting from People’s Bank of China (China’s central bank) is slightly ahead of that of ECB and FED. Continue (继续)
China’s Iron Ore import and production sees a robust recovery in Sept 2009. The domestic production increased by 67% y-o-y and reached 65 million tons, while the imports increased by 29% y-o-y and reached almost 84 million tons. Continue (继续)
The Hign Net Worth Individual (HNWI) is defined as someone who has at least USD 1 million investable capital to play with in addition to his/her necessities, such as housing, car, living expense, etc. Due to the global financial crisis in 2007, a lot of HNWI in the west (eg., USA, Japan, etc) has incurred huge loss and therefore dropped out of the category of HNWI. On the other hand, China’s HNWI keeps increasing in the downturn. As of 2008, China has about 364,000 HNWI nation wide, making China the fourth biggest country with most HNWIs (after USA, Japan and Germany). Considering China’s huge population base, however, the percentage of HNWI is a mere 0.03%, which falls far behind the other wealthy nations. The country with the highest percentage of HNWI is Switzerland, with over 2% of its population worth more than USD 1 million for investable capitals.
一般国际上对高收入人群的定义是在满足基本生活需求之外，还有至少100万美元用来投资或者投机。这样的人显然是不多的。2008年，在中国满足这个条件的人大约有36万4千人，占总人口比例的0.03%。中国是世界上高收入人群居住的第四大国家，排在美国，日本和德国之后。但是由于人口基数大，因此从百分比来说还是很低的。
China’s CPI in Sept 2009 fell 0.8% compared to Sept 2008. The PPI continues the more agressive downtrend by falling 7% year-on-year. The fall of both indicators implies that China is still experiencing excessive production capacity and deflation. A potential worry, however, is that the fall of CPI seems to slow down and shows sign of recovery. Even though it is still negative on a y-o-y basis, it did improve compared to Aug 09, when the CPI fell 1.2% y-o-y. Such a recovery makes fear of inflation back to the market again, and also curbed any further increase in the share price of China’s stock market. A Related report can be found HERE.
中国9月份消费者物价指数同比下跌0.8%，同时中国9月份生产者物价指数同比下跌7%。两个指数虽然都还在下跌，但是下跌幅度都有所减缓。8月份的消费者物价指数下跌了1.2%。这让市场重新开始对于中国何时进入通胀周期进行广泛猜测，股市好像也受次影响微幅下跌。
China’s GDP in Q3 of 2009 grew a staggering 8.9%, according the data released by Bureau of Statistics. China’s GDP growth peaked at 13% in Q1 2007, and fell below 10% since Q3 2008. In Q1 09, China’s GDP growth fell to a recent trough of 6.1%, which is the lowest in the last decade. China’s government sets the target to grow GDP by 8% for 2009. So far the average growth of the first three quarters reached 7.6%. The Q4 growth need to go over 9% to meet the yearly target of 8%.
中国09年第三季度国民生产总值增长8.9%。该增长速度在全球独一无二，首屈一指。中国经济增长在08年下半年和09年上半年受到重创，一度跌到季度仅增长6%左右。但是政府及时出手采取了多项果断措施，第三季度增长果然得到应验。中国政府对本国全年经济的增长目标设为8%。
China’s PPI shows a reduction of 7.9% in August of 2009 compared to that of 2008, implying that there is a higher risk of deflation in China now rather than inflation. China’s PPI has been negative for about 9 months since Dec 2008. It seems that the negative PPI is one of the reasons to prompt the government to go ahead with the bold stimulus program in Q1 of 2009. However there is a concern that the PPI will recover soon if the current quantitative ease is not controlled with more flood of liquidity into the cash market
中国生产者物价指数持续第九个月同比下降，在09年八月显示下降7.9%。该结果显示目前尚无通货膨胀之虞。生产者物价指数一般和消费者物价指数的增减成同方向发展。2009年前者的下降幅度要显著大于后者。其中大宗商品价格下降和出口下降是主要原因之一。
China’s Electricity Consumption has increased by 9.81% year on year in September 2009, amounting to 322.4 Billion KWH nation wide. China’s Electricity consumption has suffered almost 8 months of negative growth since October 2008, coinciding with the slow down in PMI and industrial output. Since June 2009, however, the electricity consumption resumes the positive growth and implies a robust economy. Electricity consumption is a good indirect indicator of economic health.
中国电力需求在九月份创下强劲增长，比上年9月上升了9.8%。从6月份开始中国电力需求每个月都创下正增长，显示经济发展的需求比较稳定。一般情况下，经济如果衰退，那么电力需求也会相应下降。
China’s Gold Reserve increased in 2008 from the previous level of 600 tons to the current level of 1054 tons. In recent years China government has been trying hard to diversify the foreign reserve from USD to other assets. Gold is one of the important assets to diversify into. However, given the size of China’s foreign reserve, any agressive move in the world gold market would cause huge movement in the price. The main reason is that other main holders of gold (eg., ECB, USA, etc) are hoarding the gold reserve and have no intention to sell. China is now world’s 8th biggest organization to hold the gold, and about 10% of the world’s largest holder of gold ECB. However, with China’s mere holding of 1054 tons, it already accounts for 70% of the open interest in Comex Gold Future. One can imagine how small portion of the world’s gold reserve has been traded on open market.
Given China’s current situation, its gold reserve is still small, and the weight of gold reserve in its total reserve is ignorable as well (less than 1%). Compared to other countries, it is obvious that the traditional industrialized countries (USA, Germany, France, etc) hold most of their reserve in gold. The only advanced economy that does not hold gold in significant volume as its reserve is Japan. Japan is a loyal friend and believer in USD and holds most of its reserve in USD.
中国2008年底黄金储备量达到1054吨。虽然比上一年度有显著增加，但是跟国际同行相比还是小巫见大巫。中国目前黄金储备占世界第8，储备量是世界第一的欧洲央行所持有的黄金的10%。同时中国黄金储备在所有储备中不到1%，因此还有很大空间增长黄金的储备。
China’s CPI dropped 1.2% in August 2009. It is estimated that the CPI of Sept is unlikely to be positive. However, it shall increase relatively compared to August. China’s inflation has been negative since February 2009, mainly due to the contraction in export demand and therefore the slow down for companies to procure. In addition, the correction of world commodity price (eg., oil and metals) also contributed to the reduction in inflation rate. However, a lot of economists are worrying that the super loose quantity ease might invite inflation back again sooner than expected.
中国消费物价指数在八月份下降了1.2%，估计该指数在9月份也不太会返回正值。出口行业需求的下降是该指数下降的重要原因之一，同时国际商品价格的下降也推波助澜。目前看来，在年底之前很难看到消费物价指数重返正值，说明目前最大的挑战不是通胀，而仍然是通缩。
China’s PMI in Sept 2009 reaches 54.3, according to China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing. The PMI is a commonly followed indicator to evaluate the economy. China’s PMI plunged during second half 2008 following the financial crisis started from US. Thanks to the domestic stimulus program, however, the PMI recovered fast from the bottom in Nov ’08. Starting from March, PMI has continually been above 50, which is a minimum for a healthy economy to be sustainable.
中国采购经理人指数9月份达到54.3。自从08年11月采购经理人指数达到谷底之后，该指数持续回升。从09年3月开始经理人指数持续保持在50以上，显示国内经济发展态势良好。
foreign-reserve
China’s Foreign Reserve in Sept 2009 has increased by about 63 billion USD from August and reached 2273 Billion USD. Due to the strong recovery in China’s export, particularly in low cost goods and low value chain, Made in China continues to dominate world export market. China’s foreign reserve has surpassed 1 Trillion USD in Jan 2007 and 2 Trillion USD in April 2009. The Chinese government has expressed concerns on the ‘safety’ of the reserve (believed to be 90% in USD) for several times since the financial crisis unfolded in 2008. China’s foreign reserve is now world’s no.1.
中国外汇储备9月份又增加630亿美元，达到2.2万亿。最近几年中国外汇储备连年增加，目前中国的外汇储备居世界第一，超过日本和德国。温家宝总理多次在公开场合表示对外汇储备能否保值的担心。中国的外汇储备主要来自出口盈余。
china export-growth
Sept is the third consecutive month that China’s monthly export growth exceeds that of last year. In sept 2009 China’s export grew a 116% compared to sept 2008, following a healthy growth in July and August. China’s export has benefitted from the low labor cost in the country, focus on the low value chain and an arguable undervalued RMB. Despite the three months of positive growth, China government sticks to the view that the current recovery is still very fragile and there is a risk for fall again when the stimulus program is not followed up with further excitement. Therefore it is unlikly that RMB will be revalued any time soon.
中国9月出口额相对于08年9月增加了116%,是今年连续第三个月连续正增长.这对于在全球经济萧条中挣扎的中国经济无疑是一大好消息.但是估计政府仍持谨慎态度,因此在近期调整人民币汇率的可能性微乎其微.
China’s Trade Surplus continues to grow despite both China and US governments’ effort to ‘rebalance’ the world economy. China’s world record trade surplus has been critisized as one of culprits for the current financial crisis. Both China and US government agree that one of the keys to reverse the current recession is for China to consume more, save less, export less and for US to consume less and save more. However, it seems that such a rebalance has not taken place on any significant scale yet.
中国贸易顺差持续增长.2009年截至9月,贸易顺差达到1350亿美元.以此速度增长的话,全年顺差可能达到1800亿美元.虽然要比07和08年少许多,但是还会达到06年的高水平.中美双方高层近来几次谈话显示两国政府有共同的愿望来改变中国顺差美国逆差的世界贸易格局.
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Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
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