Archive for June, 2009

WSJ:China’s Banks Are Warned About Loans (华尔街日报关于中国信贷风险的报道)

SHANGHAI — The People’s Daily newspaper warned China’s banks about risks of loans they are pouring into state infrastructure projects, questioning the safety of billions of dollars of debt backed by local governments country-wide.

//该文章在WSJ的主页上需要付费阅读。。。

于是小编搜了一下WSJ China的主页,找到该文的出处:《人民日报》提醒中国银行业注意爆炸式放贷》

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China’s Xinhua to Launch English TV news (中国新华社开播英语新闻)

英国金融时报报道,中国新华社最近将开播英语类新闻节目并面向全球直播。此举令全球华人欢呼雀跃,大鼓人心。但是西媒并没有对新华社的举动给与任何正面评价。从金融时报心情复杂的描述中,可以看出西媒对于中国力量的担心,恐惧和嫉妒。毕竟,一个是现行世界上的主流媒体,一个是新加入的后来者,各种不同的意见价值观不免产生冲突碰撞。中西文化在世界文苑的交融冲突实乃本世纪最值得期待的历史事件。

Confucius in the new Century?
Confucius in the new Century?

Xinhua, China’s official news agency, will launch an English-language tele­vision news programme this week on screens in supermarkets and outside Chinese embassies in Europe, in a cautious first step towards spreading Beijing’s view of the world to western audiences.

The move, planned for Wednesday, comes six months after the Chinese government launched a plan to improve its global image through English-language television news channels to be built by trusted state-owned media.

“Our goal is to get China’s voice and perspective of things out there and to offer a different choice to a news audience all over the world,” said a department head at Xinhua with detailed knowledge of the TV preparations. “We have been hiring aggressively and building our TV capabilities for months. But still, it will take a long time until we can actually challenge CNN or BBC.”

Xinhua this month started offering Chinese-language TV news on Kaixin001, a social networking site. But editorial staff at the agency said broadcasting overseas would require a lot more preparation.

“We decided to test viewers’ reactions first by putting up some screens at Chinese embassies in Europe so people can watch it while they wait for their visas,” said one person. “Also, we will have Xinhua English-language TV in supermarkets in Brussels and other cities.” Academics with an advisory role in the plan have said the government would hand out Rmb30bn-Rmb45bn ($4.4bn-$6.6bn, €3.1bn-€4.7bn, £2.7bn-£4bn) to media groups.

The government has de nied the numbers and re fused to comment further, but many state media have focused on the project for months. China Daily, the country’s first nationwide English-language news paper, started overseas circulation this year. In April, Global Times, an affiliate of People’s Daily, the Communist party’s mouthpiece, launched an English-language edition.

Senior Xinhua journalists, advertising industry sources and media executives said the agency had been picked as the main media organisation for the TV portion of the propaganda push, and state funds for the project had started pouring in.

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中国电信欲引进黑莓 (China Telecom to introduce BlackBerry)

Chinese telecom operator China Telecom is reportedly talking with the Canada-based Research In Motion to introduce the latest BlackBerry handsets into the Chinese market.

12-9-08-rogers-curve-8900According to news in Chinese media, handsets are said to be undergoing tests and the schedule for the launch of those mobile phones in China has yet to be decided. According to an unnamed insider, RIM aims to bring its BlackBerry handsets and services to Chinese customers in government departments and corporations. China Telecom has advantages in the government and corporate markets, which is suitable for BlackBerry’s promotion. In addition, BlackBerry adopts the CDMA technology in its North America base camp and China Telecom operates the CDMA network in China, which is the basis of the two parties’ cooperation.

美国总统奥巴马最爱的黑莓手机,不久之后有望成为中国“潮人”的手上新宠。中国电信内部人士向CBN记者透露,目前正与黑莓手机生产商RIM公司接触,希望将黑莓手机引入中国市场。RIM公司则拒绝对此置评。研究公司Wedge MKI的分析报告显示,中国电信和RIM有望于今年第四季度开始在中国市场销售黑莓手机……

2009年6月28日消息,启动3G服务后,中国电信一直致力于引入更多手机机型,扩大用户群。中国电信集团总经理王晓初近日表示,该公司计划6至8月期间推出30款3G手机,供应商包括摩托罗拉和诺基亚等。

“黑莓”诱惑

黑莓和iPhone是目前国际市场上最为畅销的两大智能手机,且采取与运营商捆绑的模式。

其实,中国移动已在中国提供黑莓手机服务三年之久,但并未引进黑莓手机。对此,大和证券公司分析师Marvin Lo认为,黑莓手机具有快速移动连接电子邮件的功能,但该机型并不太受中国用户欢迎。实际上中国人喜欢短信交流,而不是邮件。如果中国电信给予高端黑莓手机大量补贴,可能会损伤该公司的短期盈利性。

在Lo看来,黑莓手机最可能服务的是在华跨国公司的小范围人群。

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Who to Blame for Chinalco’s failure in stoping Rio Tinto from merging with BHP (中铝收购力拓告吹原因探究)

The failuer of ChinaLco to acquire Rio Tinto has aroused in depth discussion on the internet of China. The Chinese official press (Xinhua.net) accuses Rio Tinto of being ‘unethical’ and ‘untrustworthy’. Other people, however, have diffirent opinions. One of the views as per below is that the failure of such M&A has its root in the structure of Chinalco – its state ownership.

What is the reason behind the failure of the transaction?

What is the reason behind the failure of the transaction?

(来源:中华网络)中铝收购力拓告吹,这场中国企业史上最大额度和最激动人心的海外并购案由此划上句号。至此,三大国际矿业巨头的铁三角关系不但没有被拆散,反而愈加紧密。失望和愤懑的情绪开始弥漫,为什么中铝会失掉这次千载难逢的好机会,为什么对力拓出尔反尔,为什么澳洲的政客们将这场商业交易蒙上政治色彩。

6月9日,中国的新华社罕见的发表了一篇措辞严厉的评论,批评力拓这样的做法是“背信弃义”和“过河拆桥”。

其实,中国企业到海外收购矿业资产的历史由来已久。上世纪90年代,首钢率先走出国门收购了秘鲁铁矿,但直至今日还经营管理不善,一直陷入当地劳资纠纷的泥潭;2005年,中海油试图收购美国的尤尼科石油公司,最终功败垂成;现在,中铝在力拓竞购案上先胜后败,铩羽而归。

为什么中国企业,尤其是国有企业在海外并购的道路上磨难重重,现在,除了指责对方以外,似乎更应该反思的是中国国企的制度根源问题。

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Is World Ready for China (中国在大宗商品市场各路出击)

在全球最大美元外汇储备的支撑下,中国政府各路出击,在多种大宗商品市场掀起阵阵波澜,令外媒困惑,不安,同时存有期望和理想。

BEIJING (Reuters) – For China, the trade dispute raised this week with the West may in retrospect seem minor compared to the ructions that await Beijing as its state firms start to punch their weight on global commodity markets.

Is World Ready for China?
Is World Ready for China?

The U.S. and EU complaint to the World Trade Organization accuses China of unfairly restricting exports of several metals such as zinc, steelmaking ingredient coke and bauxite, the raw material for aluminum; at the same time India and Australia complained about Chinese firms dumping cheap aluminum goods.

Both are the result of China using tried and tested tax or tariff policies to ensure resource supplies and protect domestic industry. But as its domestic demand begins to outstrip its own resource base, those policies will become less effective.

For commodity markets, the concern is that Beijing could utilize its growing trade network and strategic stockpiles as its next best lever to protect its economy.

“I think the lesson learned over the last two years was that China was very much the price taker, in the sense it was more supply sensitive rather than price sensitive. Hence you have this massive commodity boom,” said Mark Pervan of ANZ Bank.

“I suspect it will be a different in the next 10 years with China much more heavily involved in the global market.”

“China is effectively the new boy in town, a very big boy, and realizing it can throw its weight around. But it needs a major education process and a better regulatory environment to avoid creating massive volatility.”

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China Demand: Is It Real (中国需求引起关于投机的猜测)

A War between the old and new?

A War between the old and new?

在目前全球经济低迷而中国经济一枝独秀的大背景下,中国对各种原材料持续不断的进口需求引起外媒多种猜测。一方面他们为中国持续不断的需求所震惊折服羡慕嫉妒,另一方面也深深不可理解为何中国需求还是如此强劲,特别是其出口占GDP总量的30%强。由于对中国需求的大量不理解,外媒便产生各种猜测,如北京对地方上的投机购买控制不力,中国需求随时可能在一夜之间消失由此引发全球市场动荡,等等。细读其文,可以深深感到外媒对中国这个全球贸易市场上的新玩家所持有的敬畏,不解和妒忌的矛盾心情。

As Grant’s Interest Rate Observer has been known to say, “We wrote it. Did you read it?” My slim hope is that the Chinese really and truly know what they are doing, because, in fueling investor optimism with such flair, they are playing a high stakes game. My worry is that they drop the ball, somehow, and the result shows up as a violent wake-up call for “high beta” assets…emerging market equities, energy, commodities and the like.

What happens next is far from clear. The huge [commodity] stockpiles could continue to grow at a breathtaking pace – after all, Beijing has plenty of greenbacks to work through – and the dragon’s data points could continue to impress, or at least not frighten.

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第五种货币 (A Fifth Currency in IMF?)

IMF A think tank from Chinese government claims that Chinese Yuan (RMB) shall be included into the SDR (Special drawing rights) of IMF. For the moment SDR is composed of USD, Euro, JPY and GBP. The Chinese think tank says that it is time to consider expanding the basket to include CNY and give it a weight of 20% 

一个政府智囊周四称,中国的人民币应当成为国际货币基金组织和其成员国使用的特别提款权的第五种组成货币,并占20%的权重。中共中央政策研究室经济局局长李连仲称,此举将成为建立一种新型国际储备货币的一个步骤。
这为人们提供了少有的机会看到一家具有影响力的中国政策智囊机构对人民币在国际金融体系潜在地位的看法。在今年年初二十国集团(G20)伦敦峰会讨论全球金融危机国际对策之前,中国央行行长周小川发表了一篇文章,呼吁将特别提款权发展成为一种替代性的储备货币。目前特别提款权由四种篮子货币构成:美元、欧元、日圆和英镑。最近一次篮子货币评估是在2005年11月,下一次5年期评估将在2010年末举行。李连仲的讲话可能暗示中国希望在2010年改组该货币篮子,可能会将人民币作为第五种组成货币。
此外,中共中央政策研究室经济局局长李连仲说,美元贬值是必定无疑的,利用中国1.95万亿美元的外汇储备投资黄金和地产是更好的选择。中国应收购低价能源、资源。

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欧美加紧争夺中国稀缺资源 (EU/US taps on China’s natural resource)

Less Coal Export from now on?

Less Coal Export from now on?

It is reported in China that EU and US’s complaint on China’s export policy of some mining commodity is unfair and malicious. China feels that the real purpose of EU/US’s complaint to WTO is to continue to get cheap supply of Chinese made commodity such as coal and zinc. Recently China government has posed an export tax on such commodities, which arouses strong reaction from EU and US. From China’s point of view, the purpose of the export tax is to curb the domestic mining activity which is hazardous and causes a lot of pollution. Based on such purpose, the export tax is perfectly within the line of WTO regulations.

欧盟近日与美国联手,以诉诸世界贸易组织争端解决机制相逼,要求中国解除对多种稀缺原材料的出口限制。而欧盟拿中国原材料出口说事绝非无的放矢,这不仅是为了保护自身企业利益,另一方面也是其加强海外资源争夺战略的具体体现。
环保丢到一边

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中国财富分布有集中化趋势 (China’s Wealth Distribution more concentrated in upper tier)

Too much Money Floating Around?

Too much Money Floating Around?


It is reported in China that the wealth distribution in China is concentrating on the top tier. According to BCG’s Wealth Report Annual 2006, 70% of China’s wealth is controlled in 0.4% of the family, which is relatively high compared to other country including USA.

中国在社会财富增长加速的同时,出现了财富向少数人手中集中的倾向。在日前召开的政协十一届常委会上,中国财富的“集中度”正在受到政协常委和委员的热切关注。蔡继明委员说:“中国权威部门的一份报告显示,0.4%的人掌握了70%的财富,财富集中度高于美国。”

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China Iron Ore Negotiation Dilemma (中国面临铁矿石谈判死胡同?)

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再过不到一个星期便是中国钢铁协会和三大矿业巨头谈判的最后时刻。目前看来形势不容乐观。三大巨头已经同日韩铁矿石进口商谈好价格,并且从中国目前铁矿石进口的趋势来看有增无减。外媒分析员纷纷猜测中国钢铁协会别无选择只能认宰。由此显现出崛起大国对资源需求和定价权的无奈。

SHANGHAI/SEOUL, June 24 (Reuters) – With less than a week before the deadline to agree on a price for annual iron ore contracts, it is increasingly clear that China faces two unpalatable choices — buying all its ore on the spot market, or swallowing the same deal agreed by rivals.

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中石化2008年炼油板块巨亏1144亿 (Sinopec Refining loss in 2008 Amounting to 114 Billion RMB)

It is reported in Shanghai Security Newspaper that Sinopec, as the biggest oil refinery in China, has taken huge social responsibility in 2008 when they did not increase the gasoline price during the oil price spike.

oil_price_hike

During the first three quarters in 2008, oil price touched the high of $147, therefore the cracking margin for Sinopec is under huge pressure. However Sinopec runs her capacity to 87% and secure the stable supply of gasoline market within the country. As a result their refining division suffered from a loss of 114 Billion RMB, which is roughly equal to 16 Billion USD.

(来源:上海证券报) 在去年国际油价持续“高烧”的背景下,作为中国最大炼油企业的中石化集团承担了巨大的社会责任。该集团昨天在官方网站公布的《2008年企业社会责任报告》(下称《责任报告》)透露,中石化集团去年炼油板块的实际亏损高达1144亿元。

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Sinopec & Addax Deal boost market confidence (中石化收购阿达克斯)

Sinopec

Sinopec

中石化发力,这是继中铝购并力拓失败以后中国公司在其他战场上的胜利。在全球经济低迷,大宗商品价格受挫,美元乏力,以及中国经济一支独秀的大背景下,中石化的海外购并具有战略意义。管中窥豹,从中也可以略微解毒中央政府应对过多美元外汇储备的策略。

(Source: WSJ) China again sought to satisfy its hunger for natural resources, as state-owned Sinopec Group agreed to acquire oil-exploration company Addax Petroleum Corp. for 8.27 billion Canadian dollars (US$7.19 billion), in what would mark the largest overseas takeover by a Chinese company.

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谷歌涉黄-点击率惹的货?(Google linked to Porn sites ads due to Profit Pressure?)

Search Engine

Search Engine

It is reported in China that a potential cause for Google to be linked to excessive porn cites is google’s profit seeking model. To sustain its growth and strengthen its edge against main competitions in China google has no choice but to seek high income streams including porn site ads.

日前,互联网违法和不良信息举报中心调查发现谷歌中国网站存在大量传播淫秽色情和低俗信息而遭遇强烈的谴责!国家相关部门宣布对“谷歌中国”网站进行相关处罚。实际上,谷歌因存在黄色信息而被通报批评并不是首次,在今年1月和4月,它曾被互联网违法和不良信息举报中心两次曝光,要求整改。事隔两天,猫扑网和天极网因整改后仍然存在淫秽不良信息被再度曝光。追问疑问

  为什么互联网上淫秽色情和低俗信息会屡禁不止?就连作为全球最大的搜索引擎也一再涉黄,在中国市场给自家“倒米”。正如一知情人士透露,这都是点击率“惹的祸”。事实上,互联网传播淫秽和不良信息不单是出现在我国,这是全球性的问题,美国、英国等互联网高度发达的国家和地区,它们又是如何进行监管?有专家指出,要净化互联网,既需要政府部门对网站进行有力的监管外,也需要网站自律和部分网民洁身自爱。
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Google Nannying Arouses Worry (西媒对谷歌在中国的遭遇发表不满)

Google

显然西媒对谷歌在中国的遭遇极度不满,将其上纲上线到保护主义高度。凭什么政府老盯着谷歌,而其竞争对手百度却安然无恙?老外也许忽略了一点,在中国混,对国情还是要有相当研究的,这一套不见得读了哈佛的MBA就能搞得明白。

Beijing’s latest move to tighten its grip on the Internet came last week, when the government told Google to block non-Chinese Web sites from its Chinese search portal and alter some features on its search site. This is isn’t just net nannying; it’s protectionism by another name.

Since the 2006 launch of its Chinese-hosted search site, Google has been in pitched battle with Baidu, a domestic competitor that has 74% market share in domestic Web searches, according to Shanghai-based consulting firm iResearch. Google’s market share is around 20%. The U.S. company’s key competitive advantage rests in non-Chinese-language search results, an advantage that would be wiped out if it fully complies with the government’s demand.
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中国对于外界指责予以反击 (China’s Reaction to Others’ Critism on ‘Buy China’)

madeInChina针对外媒的尖锐批评,中国WTO研究会常务理事何伟文对《环球时报》记者表示,这个所谓的“买国货”条款事实上并非对外国货的限制和歧视,恰恰相反,在中国遭受非国民待遇的正是中国货。

《环球时报》记者从相关消息人士了解到,国家发改委、工信部等9部委早在5月26日联合发布有关通知,对工程建设招投标监管工作进行统一部署。 通知表示,目前在我国装备制造业招标采购活动当中,通过在招标文件当中设置歧视性的条件,限制国产设备使用的做法比较突出,在一些领域还相当严重。而且这 种国货歧视现象不是近期才有,多年以来一直存在。因此,有必要对政府采购等行为进行规范,鼓励采购国货。

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China: Healthier People, Healthier Economy (中国最新的医疗改革计划)

Once upon a time, when China was unambiguously a communist country, its healthcare system was a success. In the three decades following the establishment of the People’s Republic in 1949, the average lifespan nearly doubled and infant mortality went down five-fold. Good healthcare provisions no doubt played a major part.

Then came the market reforms of the early-1980s and the system fell apart. Provision of healthcare fell behind the need to boost GDP and eventually the central government withdrew funding, putting more pressure on local governments.

“When the system turned to a market-orientated approach, the cities on the east coast which received the most foreign direct investment were in the best position to invest that money into healthcare, while the inland provinces were not able to keep up,” said Robert Pollard, director of market research firm, Synovate Healthcare, in Beijing.

Patients were forced to pay ever-greater out-of-pocket expenses for their care. The situation nowadays is that the ill often have to foot big bills that can drive them into poverty or avoiding treatment altogether, while the healthy try to keep large chunks of their income in the bank just in case the worst does happen. This is why the government guidelines for medical reform, released last month, are so important. The plan is to upgrade the healthcare system by 2020 into something that provides affordable and effective medical treatment to both rural and urban citizens. It will affect everything from hospitals and clinics, and healthcare financing, to the drug delivery system.

“What we’re seeing with the new plan is a move back to a more socialist approach to medicine by providing for the majority,” said Pollard.

If successful, the sick will not be the only beneficiaries: the economy as a whole could undergo a fundamental change, and several business sectors—drug companies, medical equipment manufacturers and insurance companies—will all be affected.

Medical reform has been a long time coming, with plenty of stops and starts over the past decade. What makes things different this time is that the government has already announced how much it is going to spend on the initial phase, namely Rmb850 billion ($125 billion) during the next three years.

A poor system

The main problem that needs to be addressed is the inefficient manner in which healthcare is delivered. Local clinics lack credibility for even common illnesses, so even if someone has a cold they will often not seek primary care, but rather go straight to a hospital. Therefore a subset of hospitals is caring for the full spectrum of illnesses, from the mildest of ailments to the most serious conditions.

“It’s the academic hospitals with the good reputations that people go to,” said Jon Zifferblatt, managing director of General Biologic, a Shanghai-based healthcare consultancy and information provider. “They open their doors in the morning and people flood in. It’s a bit like going to see a doctor in a train station.” And for many rural citizens, going to a hospital might not be an option since it could be too far away or too expensive.

One way to tackle this inefficient aspect of the system is to reduce the level of dependence on the top-level hospitals. To do this there are plans to build or upgrade 8,700 hospitals—3,700 in urban areas and 5,000 in rural areas—and 11,000 community clinics by 2011. These new facilities will be scattered across the country and building them could provide temporary work opportunities to migrant workers who have returned home after losing their jobs in the big cities.

Off the back of the new hospitals and clinics, sales of medical equipment are expected to increase. Each clinic has a list of devices that it must stock, which will turn out to be a shopping list for many new or underequipped centres. The focus will be to buy domestically-produced equipment, thereby helping out several US-listed Chinese companies. Two such companies that are considered well placed to take advantage are Mindray Medical International and China Medical Technologies.

But the success of these new clinics will depend on more than just how well-equipped they are. The difficult part is to make sure that the clinics are staffed by qualified doctors, thereby restoring trust in the system. The government has to find ways to incentivise good doctors to work in what could sometimes be remote locations.

The other main problem with the healthcare delivery system is that it is not always working in the interest of patients. Government funding for hospitals has gradually diminished, while at the same time the state imposes price control on many services. The result is that hospitals often over-prescribe drugs, or sell expensive patented drugs with a high mark-up. The hospital benefits financially from this because not only do they prescribe the drugs, they dispense them too. Hospitals in China make around 60% of their revenues from prescribing drugs, compared to the 10% to 20% that is typical in Western countries. In the draft guidelines, released last year, there were plans to separate the prescribing and dispensing of drugs. But in the final document these were only introduced as a pilot plan, suggesting that the government has decided not to tackle the hospital inefficiencies head on, but indirectly through improvements in the financing of treatment.

Efficiency through insurance

While around one-third of the announced money has been allocated towards infrastructure and the Ministry of Health, two-thirds is going towards social security funds. More money for social security funds means both that more people will be covered by the state medical insurance and that reimbursements and subsidies given for healthcare will increase.

“The question is who should have the power to control the healthcare system? Naturally, [the social security funds] do not have the incentive to maximise hospitals’ profits,” says Jinsong Du, healthcare analyst at Credit Suisse. Du says the financing reform will bring improvements in three stages. First, higher levels of insurance coverage and reimbursements will increase the demand for healthcare services—and to meet the demand the government will be provoked to spend more on medical infrastructure.

In the medium term, the large buying power of the funds will mean that they will be able to impose greater levels of efficiency on the hospitals. A fund will only pay for drugs that it believes are necessary, which should therefore reduce the problem of over-prescription. Instead of treating pre-existing conditions with medicine, preventative medicine could become more attractive, which will benefit vaccine and diagnostic makers.

Finally, over the long term the general population will become more aware of the benefits of insurance and differing levels of healthcare services, which will in turn educate them about the benefits of private medical insurance. Once used to the idea of being insured, individuals will be more likely to take out private insurance, that will in turn help the nascent private healthcare sector, which, as of 2007, only accounted for 3% of the hospital market.

“If the majority of the country is served by a sufficient public system,” said Zifferblatt, “the private for-profit sector might find itself in a better space to grow.” If insurance catches on, the ramifications on the Chinese economy could be huge. At the moment, the country’s high savings rate is the government’s biggest obstacle to stimulating consumption—a kind of self-imposed taxation to protect against unemployment and poor health. But if the population starts paying small, but regular insurance premiums rather than keeping large chunks in the bank, China could eventually evolve into more of a consumer society.

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Buy China Arouses Reaction (购买中国引起强烈反应)

Beijing is playing with fire by issuing a `Buy China’ edict for its stimulus package.
 
As the world’s top exporter with a $400bn current account suplus and an economy that lives off the America and European market, it will pay the highest price if it triggers a global retreat into protectionist blocs.
 
The Chinese elite no doubt feel provoked by what they call the “poison” of the US `Buy American’ clause, but the Obama White House managed to tone down the worst excesses of Capitol Hill and in any case the Chinese version is more restrictive.
 
 China needs to loosen grip on economy to sustain growth, experts argueIt bans the purchase of foreign equipment for investment projects unless a special exemption is obtained. The measures apply to European goods, even though EU states have not imposed any such “Buy Europe” clause of their own. EU producers of wind turbines have already been excluded from a $5bn wind project, whether or not they have factories in China.
 
Beijing risks making the same catastrophic error as the US Congress when it passed the US Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in 1930. America was then the rising surplus power, like China today. It was the chief beneficiary of an open global system.
 
By imposing tariffs, Washington triggered massive retaliation. While nobody escaped the Great Depression that ensued, the effects were unequal. The US suffered a far steeper decline in output than the rest of the world. Britain muddled through relatively well in a trade bloc behind Imperial Preference.
 
China’s action is extremely disturbing. It confirms what we have long feared, that the Chinese government is sufficiently worried about rising unemployment to adopt suicidal measures. Nor does this episode instill confidence in the `China recovery story’.
 
While exports fell 26pc in April, imports were down by almost as much. There is no real rebalancing under way from external to internal demand. China is still running a massive surplus. It is flooding the world with excess goods, and exporting deflation. This is untenable. At some point, the West will react.

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