China and India are the two most populous countries in the world.Both countries have very long and proud histories and culture traditions, and both countries went through less glorious moments in the latest 200 years compared to 1000 years ago. In the last 20 years, however, both countries show impressive and eye-catching development. Therefore it would be quite interesting to put the two together for a comparison study. Read the rest of this entry »
Archive for May, 2011
According to the latest figure from IEA, Saudi Arabia is the biggest supplier of crude oil to China, accounting for about 19% of China’s total oil import. The following suppliers are Angola (13%), Iran (10%) and Oman (7%). Iraq and Russia are also strategically important suppliers.
一个有趣的问题是，为什么中国能够如此长期的保持这般高的投资率？毕竟，按照经济学教科书上的原理，随着投资量增加，投资的边际回报慢慢递减，而投资成本（利率）会慢慢增加，这样逐渐达到一个均衡的状态。 Read the rest of this entry »
A lot has been discussed about the internationalization process of Renminbi. Such a need seems to be intensified recently as more problems are seen to emerge from the current major currencies in the world. The purchasing power of USD is in big worry as FED continues to show dovishness towards her monetary policy. The second dominant currency, Euro, is in no better shape as the debt problems in the peripherals continues to jeopardize the survival of the common currency. Since China now plays an arguably more important role in international trading, a natural solution to the above weakness in USD and EUR is for RMB to be more used as an international currency. Recently, Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said that China will continue to move ahead in promoting the use of the yuan (RMB) as an international currency.
IT will be grossly over optimistic, however, to think that RMB is anywhere near to replace USD or Euro in the near future. The main reason is that it is probably not in the best interest of Chinese government to promote the internationalization of RMB despite their message in public. To understand this dynamic, one needs to start from the growth pattern of China’s economy.
For the past 20 years or so, China has achieved one of the fastest growth in terms of economic development in the world, with a heavy dependence on investment. During this period, investment has been the top contributor to China’s GDP growth, accounting for more than 40% of GDP growth on average. Both the extent and the length of such investment lead growth are unprecedented in post war history. Read the rest of this entry »
股市在这时候发出的信息不容忽略。就最近几个月看来，不管是北非革命，或是葡萄牙寻求欧盟经济援助，或是日本大海啸，似乎都只能对股市产生微弱的短暂影响。在经过一两个星期的调整以后，市场就头也不回继续冲向更高的位置。 Read the rest of this entry »
对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺一不可。大规模的本币贬值让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Read the rest of this entry »
China has gone through a period of rapidly gap widening between rich and poor. What is the reason behind that? Are we likely to see that trend to continue in the future? What it means for a Mr Joe on the street? Wu Zhijian offers his view in a recent article from Lianhe Zaobao (in Mandarin).
根据最新出炉的胡润财富报告，2011年中国大陆有96万个资产在1000万人民币以上的富豪，其中有6万人的个人资产超过了1亿元。看到这些新闻， 很多人可能会感到这不是什么好消息。毕竟中国的人均国民生产总值还不到1万美元，和如此多的亿万富豪形成鲜明对比的，是广大靠工资收入养家糊口的平民百 姓。同时国际舆论界也不时有人指出，中国的贫富差距已经超过了国际警戒线，随时都有引发社会动荡的可能。 Read the rest of this entry »
In my view, however, it is unlikely that Greece will default, not because they don’t want to default, but because they won’t be allowed to. There are a few reasons for me to establish the case.
To start with, the main problem of Greece is not a lack of liquidity (the problem won’t be solved if Greece defaults on her 2012 and 2013 debt, for example), but a lack of their competitiveness (which is more fundamental and chronical). Due to the lack of competitiveness, Greece continues to generate a trade deficit and due to bad planning, the government continues to run a budget deficit. Therefore to address the problem from a root level, Greece need to improve its competitiveness, not some problem that can be fixed through debt forgiveness. Read the rest of this entry »
A most common misunderstanding about China is that it is perceived as a pure capitalistic economy. In today’s China, there are more animal spirits felt around than anywhere else in the world. Every year, there are increasing numbers of new millionnares being made out of China to join the world’s top 1% rich and sweep up the luxury goods in Hongkong, Paris and London. The top and almost only purpose of an enterprise to exist there is profit maximization, and as a by product consequence, relationships among people have started to shift towards a more monetary and exchange based system. Read the rest of this entry »