China and India are the two most populous countries in the world.Both countries have very long and proud histories and culture traditions, and both countries went through less glorious moments in the latest 200 years compared to 1000 years ago. In the last 20 years, however, both countries show impressive and eye-catching development. Therefore it would be quite interesting to put the two together for a comparison study. Read the rest of this entry »
As the global leading manufacturing base, China imports more than 85% of the global Iron Ore supply, and 55% of global soybean supply. Also China is a major importer of Cotton, Copper and Oil.
中国是全球最大的生产基地之一，因此也是各大大宗商品的主要进口国。比如中国进口全球铁矿的85%以上，全球大豆的55%以上，以及全球原铜的20%以上。因此中国经济放缓的话，大宗商品的价格会受较大影响。
According to the latest figure from IEA, Saudi Arabia is the biggest supplier of crude oil to China, accounting for about 19% of China’s total oil import. The following suppliers are Angola (13%), Iran (10%) and Oman (7%). Iraq and Russia are also strategically important suppliers.
根据国际能源署的最新资料，沙特是中国最大的原油供应国，占到中国原油总进口的19%强。除此之外的重要出口国有安哥拉，伊朗，阿曼，伊拉克和俄罗斯。
人民币的国际化是时下一个时髦的议题。比如最近就有多家媒体报道新加坡可能成为香港之后的第二大人民币离岸中心。事实上中国政府在几年前就已经提出人民币国际化的设想，而最近国际金融局势的变化似乎更加强了人民币国际化的动力。比如世界最重要的储备货币美元，由于美联储坚持不懈地主导其宽松的货币政策，让很多人开始担心美元在将来的购买力。而第二大储备货币欧元也好不到哪里去，其币值经常由于其成员国的债务危机而大幅度波动。由于中国现在在国际贸易中起着越来越重要的不可替代的作用，国际化的人民币成为弥补以上两大货币不足的自然选择。最近央行行长周小川也表示，中国将继续推动人民币的国际化。
可是如果读者这样就认为人民币取代美元或者欧元指日可待的话，那可能就太过天真乐观了。笔者的观点是人民币国际化可能雷声大雨点小，其进程可能要比大多数人想像的慢。主要原因在于人民币的国际化会和政府对经济的调控目标发生矛盾。 要理解这其中的缘由，就要从中国经济的基本面说起。
在过去的二十多年中，中国经济增长取得了令人瞩目的成绩，一跃成为全球第二大经济体。如果仔细分析中国经济增长的成分，便可以发现其经济增长模式主要依靠对投资的依赖。比如在这二十年间，投资对中国GDP增长的贡献超过40％以上，远高于消费和出口。和战后其他经济体发展轨迹对比研究可以发现，像中国这样的投资拉动型增长，无论是程度或者是时间跨度在战后历史上都是前所未有的。
一个有趣的问题是，为什么中国能够如此长期的保持这般高的投资率？毕竟，按照经济学教科书上的原理，随着投资量增加，投资的边际回报慢慢递减，而投资成本（利率）会慢慢增加，这样逐渐达到一个均衡的状态。 Read the rest of this entry »
A lot has been discussed about the internationalization process of Renminbi. Such a need seems to be intensified recently as more problems are seen to emerge from the current major currencies in the world. The purchasing power of USD is in big worry as FED continues to show dovishness towards her monetary policy. The second dominant currency, Euro, is in no better shape as the debt problems in the peripherals continues to jeopardize the survival of the common currency. Since China now plays an arguably more important role in international trading, a natural solution to the above weakness in USD and EUR is for RMB to be more used as an international currency. Recently, Central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan said that China will continue to move ahead in promoting the use of the yuan (RMB) as an international currency.
IT will be grossly over optimistic, however, to think that RMB is anywhere near to replace USD or Euro in the near future. The main reason is that it is probably not in the best interest of Chinese government to promote the internationalization of RMB despite their message in public. To understand this dynamic, one needs to start from the growth pattern of China’s economy.
For the past 20 years or so, China has achieved one of the fastest growth in terms of economic development in the world, with a heavy dependence on investment. During this period, investment has been the top contributor to China’s GDP growth, accounting for more than 40% of GDP growth on average. Both the extent and the length of such investment lead growth are unprecedented in post war history. Read the rest of this entry »
金融市场似乎永远都不会让人感到厌倦，因为这个世界从来都不平静。从欧元区的债务危机，到中东地区的茉莉花革命，再到最近的日本核危机，投资者似乎总有一些问题要操心。3月11日日本发生的大地震给全球金融市场带来了大幅波动，比如标准普尔500指数在一个星期内跌了5%左右。但是在接下来的一个月中，除了日本国内股市以外，其他各国股市均恢复了年初开始的涨势，有些甚至已经超过了地震前的价位。
股市在这时候发出的信息不容忽略。就最近几个月看来，不管是北非革命，或是葡萄牙寻求欧盟经济援助，或是日本大海啸，似乎都只能对股市产生微弱的短暂影响。在经过一两个星期的调整以后，市场就头也不回继续冲向更高的位置。 Read the rest of this entry »
从历史经验来看，一个国家要摆脱债务危机，似乎有两种方法：快的和慢的。这有点像西医和中医，西医讲求用强效的大剂量对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效，而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法，因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦，但是耗时短见效快，咬牙坚持忍一忍，危机可能就过去了。
对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺一不可。大规模的本币贬值让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Read the rest of this entry »
China has gone through a period of rapidly gap widening between rich and poor. What is the reason behind that? Are we likely to see that trend to continue in the future? What it means for a Mr Joe on the street? Wu Zhijian offers his view in a recent article from Lianhe Zaobao (in Mandarin).
中国近几年贫富差距不断扩大。那么到底是什么原因造成这样的状况呢？这样的情况是否还会持续？对于普通投资者来说，他们应该注意些什么？伍治坚在联合早报上发表了自己的意见。
近几年来中国好消息连连，比如经济增长率即使在经济危机期间也没有受到太大影响，跟西方发达国家相比更是一枝独秀，经济总量已经超过日本成为全球第二大经济体。但在好消息的另一面，似乎也总能看到一些令人担心的消息，比如持续拉大的贫富差距。
根据最新出炉的胡润财富报告，2011年中国大陆有96万个资产在1000万人民币以上的富豪，其中有6万人的个人资产超过了1亿元。看到这些新闻， 很多人可能会感到这不是什么好消息。毕竟中国的人均国民生产总值还不到1万美元，和如此多的亿万富豪形成鲜明对比的，是广大靠工资收入养家糊口的平民百 姓。同时国际舆论界也不时有人指出，中国的贫富差距已经超过了国际警戒线，随时都有引发社会动荡的可能。 Read the rest of this entry »
A lot has been discussed on the possibility of Greece to default on their debt, and financial markets have expressed the fear on the CDS and government bond yield of Greece.
In my view, however, it is unlikely that Greece will default, not because they don’t want to default, but because they won’t be allowed to. There are a few reasons for me to establish the case.
To start with, the main problem of Greece is not a lack of liquidity (the problem won’t be solved if Greece defaults on her 2012 and 2013 debt, for example), but a lack of their competitiveness (which is more fundamental and chronical). Due to the lack of competitiveness, Greece continues to generate a trade deficit and due to bad planning, the government continues to run a budget deficit. Therefore to address the problem from a root level, Greece need to improve its competitiveness, not some problem that can be fixed through debt forgiveness. Read the rest of this entry »
A most common misunderstanding about China is that it is perceived as a pure capitalistic economy. In today’s China, there are more animal spirits felt around than anywhere else in the world. Every year, there are increasing numbers of new millionnares being made out of China to join the world’s top 1% rich and sweep up the luxury goods in Hongkong, Paris and London. The top and almost only purpose of an enterprise to exist there is profit maximization, and as a by product consequence, relationships among people have started to shift towards a more monetary and exchange based system. Read the rest of this entry »
You are currently browsing the archives for May, 2011
Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
WCM
Chinatells (主页)