The Presentation can be downloaded from HERE.
演讲稿原文可从此处下载。
Archive for November, 2011
China is the second biggest creditor of US, just after Federal Reserve.
中国是继美联储之后美国的第二大债主
The actual currency composition of China’s foreign reserve is a state secret. However, we can get an educated guess on the components based on different sources of information.
中国外汇储备的外币构成没有人知道，但是可以管中窥豹，略知一二。
Up till June 2011, China has invested directly in all the major continents, with a fairly even spread among all of them.
截至2011年6月，中国对海外的直接投资分布五大洲，在每个主要国家都有踪迹。
According to Heritage Foundation, China’s outward direct investments are spread into sectors of energy, metal, power, transportation and other sectors. Data up to June 2011.
截至2011年6月，中国海外直接投资覆盖各个行业，最大的有能源，金属，运输，金融等行业。
This Article was originally published on Business Times.
A lot has been said about the potential rescue from China to the current European debt mess. For example, Mr Yu Yongding, a former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, wrote in Financial Times (Oct 31, 2011) that “Beijing will not ride to eurozeone’s rescue”.
I would argue the opposite in this article. To understand this issue more deeply, one need to start with a few numbers.
As of Oct 2011, China held a total foreign reserve worth of about 3.2 Trillion US Dollars, with a wide margin ahead of other governments with large foreign reserves such as Japan (less than 1.5 Trillion USD) and Russia (about 500 Billion USD). During January 2011 to September 2011, China has accumulated 354 Billion USD worth of foreign reserve, which was equivalent to about 1.3 Billion USD per day and almost 1 million USD per minute. Read the rest of this entry »
Which countries will be hit hard if China lands hard? According to Maplecroft, There are a list of countries at the extreme risk if China lands improperly, including Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea and Australia.
中国硬着陆影响的不光是中国自己，还有周边一些其他国家。其中有一些国家和中国的相关性极高，因此受影响的可能性最大。这些国家包括新加坡，澳大利亚，韩国和蒙古。
此文原载联合早报
10月31日，希腊总理帕潘德里欧提议举行公投，由希腊全体人民决定是否接受欧洲议会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）给予希腊的债务援助。 在此之前，欧洲债务危机断断续续已经持续了接近两年。希腊总理在这时候抛出这一令人大跌眼镜的怪招，为这场危机的解决又增加了许多不确定因素。
一个重要的问题是，为什么希腊总理要在这时候宣布举行公投？公投在希腊国内有民意支持么？回答这个问题，要从如何治愈希腊债务问题的源头说起。
从历史经验来看，一个国家要摆脱债务危机，似乎有两种方法：速效的和缓慢的。这有点像西医和中医，西医讲求用强效的大剂量，对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效，而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。
绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法，因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦，但是耗时短见效快，咬牙坚持忍一忍，危机可能就过去了。 对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺 一不可。大规模的本币贬值，让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被 过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 Read the rest of this entry »
China is one of the world’s biggest consumers and importers of Soybean. In this sector, there are quite a few large players in the crushing of imported beans. The biggest of all is Wilmar, which controls about 17% market share of China’s soybean crushing, followed by China Agri (12%), Chinatex (9%), Cargill (9%) and Jiusan (6%). Most of the imported beans are GMO.
中国是全球最大的大豆进口国之一。中国的进口大豆压榨主要控制在一些巨型粮商手中。其中最大的是益海粮油(Wilmar)，占到17%左右的市场份额。其他比较大的商家有中国农业，嘉吉，九三，莱宝等。
China’s commodity appetite supports the global commodity market. For some of the items, China’s consumption solely determines their price. For example, China consumes more than half of world’s pork, more than 40% of world’s copper, and more than 1/3 of world’s cotton. If China slows down, the demands for all these commodities will slow down.
中国对全球大宗商品的需求是支撑这些商品价格的重要因素。举个例子来说，中国消费了全世界一半以上的猪肉，约40%的铜，以及超过1/3的棉花。如果中国经济受影响，那么这些大宗商品的价格可能都会有明显回落。
During the ten years between 2000 and 2010, the GDP per capita of China has increased dramatically at an annual pace of almost 40% per year. The only big country that has grown faster than China in terms of GDP per capita is Russia. Japan is a major country that has grown the most slowly, with an annual growth rate of slightly above 1% per year.
在2000至2010的10年中，中国的人均GDP从不到1000美元增长到超过4000美元，每年平均增长接近40%。其他发达国家的增速要慢很多。日本最慢，每年差不多1%多一点。
Are you a China Bull? (您对中国有信心么)
Is there a bubble in China property (中国房产有泡沫么)
Secret for China's Growth (中国经济增长原因探讨)
1421: the year China discovered the World
China's Environmental Crisis (中国的环境威胁)
China's Unfinished Revolution (未完成的革命)
Mr China – A memoir (中国先生)
The Chinese Century (中国世纪)
The State of China Atlas (中华新地图)
To live (活着)
Who will Feed China: Wake Up Call for a Small Planet (谁来养活中国)
Asia Hotel
WCM
Chinatells (主页)