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	<title>China Tells</title>
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	<link>http://blog.chinatells.com</link>
	<description>Investor&#039;s Portal to China</description>
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		<item>
		<title>We are living in an Asian century (亚洲崛起的世纪)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5384</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5384#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 21 May 2013 06:39:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5384</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to a research report released by Citibank, the biggest change to take place in the first half of 21st century is the rise of Asia (ex Japan) and the fall of US and Europe in terms of GDP composition. According to the estimate done by Citibank&#8217;s economists, the weight of Emerging Asia countries&#8217;s GDP [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376"     class="crp_title">Is China&#8217;s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5236"     class="crp_title">A guess on China&#8217;s foreign reserve currency&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/01/4931"     class="crp_title">China continues to top FDI recipients league table&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5373"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s soft landing process (成功软着陆)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks (投行家也没有余粮)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 08:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Equity China (股市风云)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5381</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Investment bankers used to be the focal point of jealousy in China, probably same as in any other part of the world. Starting from 2012, however, the wind seems to have changed course. As illustrated from the above table, China (A Share market)&#8217;s IPO volume peaked in 2010, when the stock exchange floated companies worth more than [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376"     class="crp_title">Is China&#8217;s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5373"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s soft landing process (成功软着陆)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364"     class="crp_title">Don&#8217;t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/12/4808"     class="crp_title">24 hours of Shanghai Stock Market (股市全球转)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282"     class="crp_title">What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is China&#8217;s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 08:39:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Equity China (股市风云)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5376</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; Is China&#8217;s equity cheap? A lot of people tend to ask this question. Of course this is not that an easy question to answer, as &#8220;cheap&#8221; is a highly relative and subjective concept, and has so many different interpretations from various perspectives. Here I compare some of the commonly used valuation (12 months forward [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364"     class="crp_title">Don&#8217;t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4583"     class="crp_title">A decade of Emerging Markets (新兴市场十年辉煌)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/05/4370"     class="crp_title">China Equity has more downside to go&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/12/4889"     class="crp_title">Which stock market performs worst in 2010: China&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China&#8217;s soft landing process (成功软着陆)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5373</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5373#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 May 2013 07:40:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5373</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It seems that China is in the process of engineering a soft landing scenario successfully. The Industrial production in April 2013 posted a reasonable growth of 9.3%, while the fixed asset investment again was above 20% year on year. China has been relying heavily on the fixed asset investment for its growth profile and is [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376"     class="crp_title">Is China&#8217;s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364"     class="crp_title">Don&#8217;t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5307"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian on Business Times: What a China Slowdown Means to</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Walking by the Thames (泰晤士镇见闻)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5368</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5368#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 15 May 2013 02:00:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5368</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Think you are in a quiet corner of London? Not at all. This is &#8220;Thames Town&#8221; in Song Jiang District of Shanghai. Last month I had an opportunity to visit the town with my cousins. My first impression was that the town was really big. I did not count the number of houses there but [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364"     class="crp_title">Don&#8217;t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/05/5031"     class="crp_title">As the Elephant meets the Dragon (中印比较漫谈)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/03/4957"     class="crp_title">Is China being Emptied? (再谈空城计)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4607"     class="crp_title">Economic Housing Space being squeezed out&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/03/4945"     class="crp_title">Return to China (回家看看)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Don&#8217;t underestimate China (切莫忽略中国股市)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5364#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 May 2013 13:40:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Equity China (股市风云)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5364</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s equity market has been a laggard for at least the past 3 years. For example, between 2011 and 2012, China H returned -8% for the investors, while S&#38;P returned +16% for the same period. In 2013 at the time of writing (May 14), China H returned -2% while S&#38;P returned another +16.5%. No wonder [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5376"     class="crp_title">Is China&#8217;s Equity Cheap? (中国股市便宜么)?</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/10/4664"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s New Five Year Plan (新时代新五年)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5307"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian on Business Times: What a China Slowdown Means to</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/02/5263"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian: China never stops surprising me (今日中国)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/03/4945"     class="crp_title">Return to China (回家看看)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		</item>
		<item>
		<title>2012年的最后一场金融危机 (The last financial crisis in 2012)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/12/5357</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/12/5357#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Dec 2012 12:02:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5357</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[此文原载于联合早报。 2012年可能注定会成为与众不同的一年。从玛雅神话的预言说起，可能很多人还都在惴惴不安地等待12月12日那一刻的到来。在这一年，世界上几个最有影响力的国家，比如美国、中国、俄罗斯等都完成了最高领导层的交替（或选举）。同时在这一年，世界主要发达国家的金融市场，比如美国和欧洲等，也似乎基本没有太平过，接连不断地被诸如欧债危机和财政悬崖之类的担忧引发震荡。在这个热闹的一年接近尾声的时候，我们还有可能经历更多的金融冲击么？在笔者看来，这个小概率事件很可能来自于日本。  笔者在数月前发表的一篇《联合早报》的文章中就指出过，日本目前的财务状况就像是一个定时炸弹，即使没有近忧，也肯定有远虑。造成这几个远虑的主要因素大致概括起来就是：一、人口老龄化，人口增长率已经过了峰值，甚至目前全国的死亡率还高于婴儿出生率；二、多年累积的财政赤字，造成政府不得不高筑债台以弥补亏缺；三、越来越多的政府债务造成恶性循环，财政收入中用于支付利息的部分越来越高；四、经济常年处于零或者负增长，导致政府收入不增反降。  以上一些问题日本常年有之，但似乎也未发生危机。其实这就是笔者之前提到的“定时炸弹”比喻的缘由，即“不是不爆，时候未到”。但是最近发生的几件事情，似乎加速了这个炸弹被引爆的风险。  首先是日本的贸易赤字。日本在二战后一跃成为世界第二大经济体，跻身发达国家俱乐部，依靠的法宝之一便是国家出口导向策略。因此在过去的几十年，日本每年都会积累贸易顺差。但是自从福岛海啸大地震引发的核危机，导致日本决定将国内所有的核发电站关闭开始，其能源进口就自然大幅增长，从而极大地缩减了其贸易顺差额。最近由于中日之间就钓鱼岛的纠纷，引发中国民众抵制日货的情绪升级，导致很多日本企业对中国的出口额大幅削减。几大汽车制造商，如丰田、本田、日产、三菱等，在九月份的对中国出口额都大幅下降30%至60%强。事实上在过去几年中，中国早已超过美国和欧洲，成为日本的第一大贸易伙伴，占到日本总出口额的10%以上。可想而知，这次钓鱼岛事件引发的影响，无疑在日本原本就比较脆弱的贸易平衡上雪上加霜，终于导致日本在最近连续几个月都发生贸易逆差。 　 这一连串的贸易逆差，可谓在日本近40年的历史上前所未有。照目前这个态势发展，日本很有可能在明年（2013年）发生经常账户赤字，也是40年来头一遭。可想而知，失去了经常账户盈余（current account surplus）这个镇山之宝，市场早晚都会质疑日本政府是否有能力偿还高达国内生产总值（GDP）两倍的巨额债务，而在这个紧要关头，政治上的变化又使这个问题更加复杂。  根据最新的民调，目前由安倍晋三领导的自由民主党（反对党），很可能会在12月份的选举中胜出。当然日本的政党交替原本就是旋转大门，你方唱罢我登场，本来似乎也不值得大惊小怪。但这次的不同之处可能就在于，安倍的施政纲领大不同于前者。比如安倍提出，日本央行应当设定2%或者3%的通胀目标，政府应该设定3%的GDP增长目标，以及日本央行应该购买更多的政府债券甚至是外国债券等。  这之中的每一个目标看似漫不经心，但实际都蕴藏着巨大的经济风险，因此不出意外地遭到了日本央行行长白川方明的公开反对。其中最主要的反对理由是，日本政府债台高筑，能够不破产完全依靠目前日本国债的低利率。如果政府过度追求通胀和经济增长目标，势必将推高日本国债的利率，到时候日本政府所要负担的利息支出将成倍增加，甚至有可能发生像目前希腊等国发生的国债危机，这个潘多拉的盒子一旦打开，局面将一发不可收拾，后果不堪设想。但问题是白川的任期到明年4月份就到期了，届时如果安倍在台上执政，基本上白川续任就不太可能，而安倍支持的新行长很可能会在银行政策上，推出一些更符合以上主张的措施。  综上所述，2013年注定将不会是平静的一年。日本国债市场一旦发生笔者在上文中描述的类似情况，将对全球经济和金融体系带来海啸般的冲击。当然现在断言危机的来临未免有夸大之嫌，因为毕竟还有很多不确定因素，而政府和决策者也还有时间来想办法应付以上可能出现的情况。但对于这个小概率的“肥尾事件”（Fat tail），投资者切不可掉以轻心。 作者：伍治坚 (Wu Zhijian)<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255"     class="crp_title">伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288"     class="crp_title">Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301"     class="crp_title">China is fighting back (我朝威武)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/china-88"     class="crp_title">China 88</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>Wu Zhijian commenting on Macro Economy and Equity Price</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/09/5347</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/09/5347#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Sep 2012 06:11:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video China (镜下百态)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5347</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on Macro Economy and Equity Market. 伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表对宏观经济的看法。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/08/5317"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian Being Interviewed by Reuters Economic Times</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5292"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4580"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian, CEO of Woodsford Capital Management being&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/09/5118"     class="crp_title">Back to Ordos in 2 Years (再探鬼城)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/10/5189"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Wu Zhijian Being Interviewed by Reuters Economic Times</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/08/5317</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/08/5317#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Aug 2012 03:20:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Video China (镜下百态)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5317</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wu Zhijian was being interviewed by Reuters Economic Times to discuss his views on European debt crisis, Oil price and Equity Market. 伍治坚接受路透经济时代采访发表他对欧债危机和石油价格的看法。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/09/5347"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian commenting on Macro Economy and Equity Price</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5292"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4580"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian, CEO of Woodsford Capital Management being&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/09/5118"     class="crp_title">Back to Ordos in 2 Years (再探鬼城)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/10/5189"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>日本债务倒计时 (Countdown on Japanese&#8217;s Debt Time bomb)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5311</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5311#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 25 Jul 2012 03:51:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5311</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[此文原载联合早报 在金融世界，有许多书面道理无法解释的奇特现象，日本的政府债券即为一例。日本是全世界负债最高的政府之一，其公共债务高达国民生产总值的200%左右（美国中央情报局在2011年的估计），和津巴布韦相当（230%），高于深陷债务危机的欧洲诸国如希腊（165%）、爱尔兰（108%）和意大利（120%）。 然而，日本政府却比这些欧洲政府幸运得多，可以用极低的利率（10年期债券殖利率目前低于1%），从金融市场上借债以弥补其财政赤字（相比较而言，希腊的10年期债券殖利率高达27%），同时日元还被视作避险资产，屡屡在金融市场动荡不安的时候，成为众多投资者青睐的货币（如2008年的金融危机）。 对于日本政府在如此高负债的情况下，仍能享受极低利率这个令人费解的现象，有过许多解释。比如有些经济学家认为，这主要是日本政府的债务多为本国人购买（超过90%），同时日本是贸易顺差国，其外汇储备仅次于中国，并且在过去几十年积累了大量的海外净资产。由于其高额的政府债务都是以日元计，因此只要日本央行肯发行足够的日元，就不存在赖账的风险。再加上日本已经多年处于通货紧缩的状态，即使债券只给出1%的利息，在物价下降的环境下，持有债券还是可以保住购买力，对投资者来说比较划算。 上述这些解释应该说都有一定的道理，可能也部分解释了为什么过去几十年，日本债券价格持续坚挺的原因。但是其中有一些因素在最近也开始发生变化，从而提高了日债价格逆转的可能性。 这个变化主要要从日本去年的地震海啸说起。由于地震引发海啸，并且导致福岛核电站的核泄漏，日本政府决定关闭全国所有的核电站。这样一来，全国的能源供应只能依靠传统的煤和天然气发电。日本由于自身自然资源的匮乏，只能依靠进口来获得这些能源原料。从核电站关闭的决定实施以来，日本每个月的天然气、煤和石油进口连续上升，导致原本的贸易顺差转变为当前的贸易逆差。对于以出口为导向的日本经济来说，这不啻为一个巨大的逆反。 在可预见的将来，日本应该会继续依靠能源进口来满足其国内的能源需求，日本的贸易逆差因而不太可能在短时间内发生变化。在这种情况下，日本的财政状况以及政府债券的安全性就值得担心了。 首先是日本的老龄化问题。自从20世纪80年代以来，日本人口增长率逐年下降。到了2004年后，其人口增长率更是跌入0以下，也就是说日本的总人口从那时候开始不增反降。在短时间内，日本的生育率不太可能有大幅度的增长，而日本对外来移民一向不太欢迎，因此总人口下降的趋势应该还会继续，这就意味着日本人口的平均年龄将会逐年递增。一般来说随着人口的老化，对政府医疗保健的依赖会增加，消费倾向则会减少。这两个因素加在一起，则可能导致日本未来几年的经济不足以由消费拉动，政府收入很可能会下降，支出却增加，因此财政缺口日益扩大。为了弥补这个财政缺口，政府将不得不举借更多的债务，导致债上加债。 由于日本政府目前已经背负了高额债务，其利息费用本身就是对政府一项极大的负担。以目前1%的殖利率来算，日本政府每年的利息支出，占了政府预算的25%左右。也就是说，日本债券的利率每上升1%，政府预算中就要有四分之一用于支付债务利息。无怪乎有经济学家提出警告，日本的政府债务随时都有雪崩的可能。 从当前情况来看，金融市场对日本政府的偿债能力还是比较有信心的。但是上文提到的核能危机引发的贸易逆转，很可能会成为压垮日本政府高额债务的最后一根稻草，引发日元和债券双贬值，到时候日债的长期利率如果开始上涨，就可能引发一系列的连锁反应，导致灾难性的后果。虽然这个过程何时发生还难以预测，但是广大金融投资者应该做好应对这一事件发生的可能性的准备。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/01/4921"     class="crp_title">Tick Tick of China&#8217;s Time Bomb (子弹在飞？)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255"     class="crp_title">伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/07/4477"     class="crp_title">The strong balance sheet of China government&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/10/4697"     class="crp_title">China has sold all the Japanese Bonds (日本被耍了么)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5297"     class="crp_title">伍治坚：欧债危机的深层次原因 (The deep root of</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>Wu Zhijian on Business Times: What a China Slowdown Means to the World (中国经济减速意味着什么)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5307</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/07/5307#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jul 2012 02:57:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5307</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This article was originally published on Business Times There seems little doubt that China is entering a period of slower growth. From the top line level, the headline GDP growth rate in Q1 has been reported to decrease to a new lower level of 8.1%, which is unseen since 2008. China&#8217;s premier Wen Jiabao also [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/10/4664"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s New Five Year Plan (新时代新五年)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/06/4409"     class="crp_title">Why China’s GDP Growth shall slow down&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4587"     class="crp_title">RMB likely to move (人民币汇率要动)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4522"     class="crp_title">China Wants to Slow Down (宁愿慢下来)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4611"     class="crp_title">Decouple Deja Vu (脱钩再现)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>China is fighting back (我朝威武)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jun 2012 07:19:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5301</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China used to be the most powerful country in the world, long time ago. The world dominance of China started to shrink in 1900s and the middle kingdom continued to weaken throughout the 20th century. However, it seems that the powerhouse is starting to fight back. 我朝在1000年前屹立于世界之巅，但从1900年开始我朝愈发微弱。但从80年改革开放以来，我朝又开始威武了。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282"     class="crp_title">What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273"     class="crp_title">China is The Engine of World Commodity Demand&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288"     class="crp_title">Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>伍治坚：欧债危机的深层次原因 (The deep root of European Debt Crisis)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5297</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5297#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Jun 2012 03:59:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[此文原载联合早报 (This article was originally published on Lianhe Zaobao) 从2009年年末希腊债券殖利率开始上升算起，欧债危机已经陆陆续续上演了接近三年。在这三年中，全球各大经济及其资本市场，均在不同程度上受到危机的影响。尽管上周末希腊举行的大选，让倾向于用改革换援助的新民主党以微弱多数上台，暂时保住了希腊不在短时间内离开欧元区，但我们似乎还是看不到解决这场旷日持久的金融危机的希望。 广大金融投资者最为关心的问题之一，可能是这场危机的根源到底在哪里。毕竟只有找对了问题的根源，才可能提出有效的解决办法。当然这个问题也不是那么简单就可以回答，坐在不同的位置上，自然会给出不同的答案。比较常见的解释，多集中在欧元区核心国（即德法两国）和欧元区边缘国（即所谓的猪猡国家）之间的矛盾冲突，即核心国财务健康经济实力雄厚，边缘国举债过多增长乏力；核心国迫于国内压力，无法对边缘国进行不求回报的大幅救助，而边缘国唯一的选择，只能是缩衣节食减少债务。 这样的分析看似有理，但却不一定完整。在笔者看来，这次欧债危机的最深层原因，可能不在于核心和边缘国的矛盾，而还在于其核心国，即德法两国之间的分歧。此话还要从历史上的德法关系说起。 在欧洲过去几百年的历史中，基本是分多合少，大部分时间要么分裂要么战乱，很少有一个主要的大国，可以完成大一统的伟业而全权管理整块大陆。在最近的两百年中，法国和德国作为欧洲大陆最大的两个强国，都似乎有机会通过强权完成这一历史伟业（法国的拿破仑和德国的俾斯麦以及希特勒），但最后却都是昙花一现功亏一篑。但也正是由于这一段不平常的历史，造成了德法两国在对欧洲的主导权问题上，基本上互不相让，有你无我。 因为目前的欧洲领导人仍然对二战带来的创伤记忆犹深，如何保证一个和平的欧洲，并且避免德法两个最强的国家再起任何冲突，便是放在领导人议程上的最重要目标之一。保证实现这一目标的重要手段之一，便是德法两国共同担当起欧元区核心国的重任，即所谓的德法联合治欧。 法国难接受德国主导欧洲 应该说，欧元区的政治进程，在大部分时间都是遵循着这一德法联合治欧的指导思想前进的。但这一默契在最近的欧债危机中受到了挑战。具体来说，德国的经济实力，在欧元区统一货币以后取得了长足进步，其竞争力和其他诸国的差距进一步拉大，同时由于统一货币带来的好处，德国对于其他欧元区诸国积累了巨额顺差，其他诸国也借德国的东风，享受了低息借款的甜头。 但是德国和欧元其他诸国的顺逆反差不可能长时间持续，在边缘区诸国不再可能以低息，从金融市场上拆借到他们所需要的资金时，欧元区第一强国德国对他们的支持，便如同救命稻草，不可或缺了。德国倒也没有落井下石，见死不救，但是从德国国内的利益出发，德国总理默克尔反复强调，不能无节制地救助边缘小国，而要他们根据德国的要求进行经济改革。 同时，默克尔也公开反对用大锅饭的机制（比如设立欧元债券或者建立银行联盟）来解决边缘效果的燃眉之急，其潜台词就是：要我出钱救助你们可以，但是既然我出了钱，就应该由我说了算，照我们德国的规矩办事。这就是默克尔提出的所谓先谈政治，后谈财政（political union first before fiscal union）。 明眼人都看得出来，这一招最大的目标其实不是希腊，也不是意西等国，而是法国。如笔者在上文中指出，由于几百年来的历史沉淀，要法国人接受一个德国主导的欧洲是相当困难的。换句话说，即使德法两国都有欧洲梦，他们可能都把自己放在了这个梦的中心，自说自话做起了这个欧洲梦的主角，而从未接受对方脑中的那个欧洲梦。这也就是为什么法国总统奥朗德，在最近提出的先救银行再谈政治的根本原因（Banking union first before political union）。 在笔者看来，在上面这个问题上，德法两国的分歧才是这次欧债危机的致命伤，也是其旷日持久，得不到解决的根本原因。如果说核心国和边缘诸国的分歧，还可能通过一些政治手段得到解决，核心国（德法）之间的分歧则是根本性的，并且对于欧元货币区的生存与否的打击也是致命性的。从目前的情况来看，德法两国的领导人还在这个根本问题上互相角力，即法国认为德国应先掏口袋救欧元区银行的燃眉之急，而德国则坚持如果没有政治上更大的话语权，其他问题免谈。从历史上来看，可能目前的情况也是难得一遇的、让德国通过和平方式在欧洲取得主导地位的天赐良机，这也就解释了为什么默克尔反对奥兰德提议的态度如此坚决的原因。 因此，要解决目前愈演愈烈的欧债危机，当务之急是德法两国需要取得互相谅解，消除分歧，然后携手提出一些务实的解决办法；否则世界其他经济可能继续会为这场危机所累，而金融市场也可能会遭遇更多的动荡。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255"     class="crp_title">伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/05/4983"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian: Why Germany should not, and would not allow&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5244"     class="crp_title">Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011 &#8211;&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5218"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who?&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/12/5357"     class="crp_title">2012年的最后一场金融危机 (The last financial&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>Wu Zhijian being interviewed by Reuters (伍治坚对经济的看法)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5292</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5292#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 20 Jun 2012 12:13:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Video China (镜下百态)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5292</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The CEO of Woodsford Capital Management and the managing editor of www.chinatells.com, Mr Wu Zhijian gave his view about European debt crisis and American economy on Reuters ET. (Starting at around 5&#8242; minutes) 伍治坚对欧洲和美国经济发表看法。(5分钟左右开始)<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/08/5317"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian Being Interviewed by Reuters Economic Times</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4580"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian, CEO of Woodsford Capital Management being&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/09/5347"     class="crp_title">Wu Zhijian commenting on Macro Economy and Equity Price</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/09/5118"     class="crp_title">Back to Ordos in 2 Years (再探鬼城)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5244"     class="crp_title">Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011 &#8211;&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 07:04:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Power Generation in China still grows at a staggering pace. Note that it took UK 150 years to reach 85 Gigawatt per year. 英国用了150年才达到每年发电85兆瓦，中国现在每年都超过80兆瓦。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301"     class="crp_title">China is fighting back (我朝威武)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273"     class="crp_title">China is The Engine of World Commodity Demand&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282"     class="crp_title">What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues (基建继续)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:56:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s heavy investment in infrastructures, such as Highway, Railway, and Metro (Urban Public Transit) continues. 中国的基础设施建设方兴未艾，继续高速发展.<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288"     class="crp_title">Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/01/4931"     class="crp_title">China continues to top FDI recipients league table&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301"     class="crp_title">China is fighting back (我朝威武)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:53:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China is now way ahead in terms of world&#8217;s shipping volume. In 2010, among the world&#8217;s largest 10 container ports, 6 are out of China. Shanghai now is the World&#8217;s biggest container port, handling more containers per year than Singapore or Hong Kong. Another fact worth noting is that 9 out of world&#8217;s 10 busiest [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273"     class="crp_title">China is The Engine of World Commodity Demand&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5381"     class="crp_title">Difficult time for China&#8217;s Investment Banks&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/china-88"     class="crp_title">China 88</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301"     class="crp_title">China is fighting back (我朝威武)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/12/4808"     class="crp_title">24 hours of Shanghai Stock Market (股市全球转)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>China&#8217;s Housing Price still too High (房价还是太高)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5279</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5279#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:43:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5279</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently the housing price in China seemed to have calmed down. However, it is probably still too high considering the price of the house to the income level of the local residents. It is estimated that Dalian and Hangzhou have the highest (housing) price to income ratio in China. Internationally the price to income ratio [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/05/4357"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Housing Price Tops the World&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/12/5250"     class="crp_title">A Comparison between China and US housing Price&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4556"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Land Price increases faster than GDP&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/07/4474"     class="crp_title">More downside for China housing price&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/07/4489"     class="crp_title">Shanghai House increasingly unaffordable (上海人真苦)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel (钢筋水泥撑起GDP)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:37:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s GDP growth is heavily dependent on the use of Steel, which has been growing steadily in the past 20 years. Such a fact showed how reliant China&#8217;s growth is on infrastructure building and property development in the past two decades. 中国经济在过去二十年的增速和基础设施以及房地产的开发是分不开的。根据一些研究机构的报告显示，每年中国GDP增长需要依靠越来越多的钢材，显示出中国经济增长的真正来源。<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2013/05/5373"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s soft landing process (成功软着陆)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/01/4918"     class="crp_title">China Steel and Aluminum Price on the rise (钢铝价同升)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/10/4681"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Massive investment in Human Capital&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4627"     class="crp_title">Will China repeat the route of Japan/Korea?&hellip;</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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		<title>China is The Engine of World Commodity Demand (商品全靠中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:31:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[During the last 10 years, China has become the de facto engine for world commodity demands. As of 2010, China accounted for 61.5% of world&#8217;s Iron Ore demand and 58.5% of World&#8217;s soybean demand. China is also one of the largest importer of other products such as coal and oil. It would be scary to [...]<div class="crp_related"><h3>Related Posts:</h3><ul><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5198"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Global Commodity Appetite&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/05/5027"     class="crp_title">China&#8217;s Global Commodity Appetite (世界加工厂)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4596"     class="crp_title">China Housing Critical to World Metal Demand&hellip;</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282"     class="crp_title">What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</a></li><li><a href="http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/06/5301"     class="crp_title">China is fighting back (我朝威武)</a></li><li>Powered by <a href="http://ajaydsouza.com/wordpress/plugins/contextual-related-posts/" rel="nofollow">Contextual Related Posts</a></li></ul></div>]]></description>
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