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	<title>China Tells</title>
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	<link>http://blog.chinatells.com</link>
	<description>Investor&#039;s Portal to China</description>
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		<item>
		<title>Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 07:04:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Power Generation in China still grows at a staggering pace. Note that it took UK 150 years to reach 85 Gigawatt per year. 英国用了150年才达到每年发电85兆瓦，中国现在每年都超过80兆瓦。 Related Posts:China Wind Power good potential to grow (风力发电大有潜力)CNNC gets nod for Tianwan phase III (核工程)Forbes: Chinese Power Companies report Growth (能源公司大跃进)China&#8217;s stimulus package powers Cummins (刺激计划的受惠者)China Power Consumption up [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5288/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues (基建继续)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:56:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5285</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s heavy investment in infrastructures, such as Highway, Railway, and Metro (Urban Public Transit) continues. 中国的基础设施建设方兴未艾，继续高速发展. Related Posts:China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel (钢筋水泥撑起GDP)China&#8217;s Industrial Production and FAI continues healthy growth (工业产值和固定投资继续大幅增长)泡沫破灭2012 (Bubble to Burst in 2012)Power Generation in China (电力供应高速增长)China continues to top FDI recipients league table (招商引资方兴未艾)Powered by Contextual Related Posts]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5285/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What China means for World Shipping (海运还要看中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5282#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:53:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China is now way ahead in terms of world&#8217;s shipping volume. In 2010, among the world&#8217;s largest 10 container ports, 6 are out of China. Shanghai now is the World&#8217;s biggest container port, handling more containers per year than Singapore or Hong Kong. Another fact worth noting is that 9 out of world&#8217;s 10 busiest [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China&#8217;s Housing Price still too High (房价还是太高)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5279</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5279#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:43:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5279</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently the housing price in China seemed to have calmed down. However, it is probably still too high considering the price of the house to the income level of the local residents. It is estimated that Dalian and Hangzhou have the highest (housing) price to income ratio in China. Internationally the price to income ratio [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5279/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China&#8217;s Growth Heavily Dependent on Steel (钢筋水泥撑起GDP)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5276#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:37:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5276</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s GDP growth is heavily dependent on the use of Steel, which has been growing steadily in the past 20 years. Such a fact showed how reliant China&#8217;s growth is on infrastructure building and property development in the past two decades. 中国经济在过去二十年的增速和基础设施以及房地产的开发是分不开的。根据一些研究机构的报告显示，每年中国GDP增长需要依靠越来越多的钢材，显示出中国经济增长的真正来源。 Related Posts:China&#8217;s Steel Demand counts on Infrastructure and Property (钢铁行业全靠铁公鸡)China&#8217;s Infrastructure Building Continues [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China is The Engine of World Commodity Demand (商品全靠中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Mar 2012 06:31:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[During the last 10 years, China has become the de facto engine for world commodity demands. As of 2010, China accounted for 61.5% of world&#8217;s Iron Ore demand and 58.5% of World&#8217;s soybean demand. China is also one of the largest importer of other products such as coal and oil. It would be scary to [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5273/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China and India: Democracy or Economic Development First? (民主和经济)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5271</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5271#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Mar 2012 03:05:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Video China (镜下百态)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A very good video clip from Business Insider to talk about the difference between China and India. Democracy and Economic development, which comes first? It seems that the China way is winning the argument for the moment. 中印之间的对比其中最大的分别就在于民主和经济发展，哪个先搞?这两个地球上人口最多的大国采取的是两种截然不同的方式，因此产生了截然不同的结果。目前看来，似乎中国的方式更加有效。 Related Posts:As the Elephant meets the Dragon (中印比较漫谈)China Bears enjoying the ride (中国市场不给力)Decoupled from Asia? (亚洲脱钩在此一举)NYT: Secret [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/03/5271/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Wu Zhijian: China never stops surprising me (今日中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/02/5263</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/02/5263#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2012 05:56:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5263</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China never stops surprising me. One of the key reasons for such confusion, I guess, is the pace of change that has taken place in the past twenty years. When I was growing up in shanghai, I was told that china was lead by a ruling party called the communists, who claimed themselves to represent [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/02/5263/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>3</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>伍治坚:欧债危机新篇章 (A New Era of Euro Debt Crisis)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2012 08:15:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5255</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[如果要用一个词语简单的概括2011年的全球金融市场，那么“欧债危机”可能具有相当的代表性。在过去的一年中，不管是股票、债券还是外汇投资者，似乎都要看欧洲的脸色行事。如果欧洲债务危机得到一定程度的缓解，各类风险资产便有很大的机会得到升值，反之亦然。 进入2012年，旷日持久的欧债危机是否会发生一些新的变化呢？在笔者看来，这个问题的答案既为是，亦为否。 先来看“是”的部分。欧债危机的新旧阶段的分水岭，当划分在2011年11月1日，即欧洲央行新任总裁德拉吉（Mario Draghi）的上任时间。俗话说新官上任三把火，德拉吉上任以来还不到三个月，但却已经实施了一些大刀阔斧式、前任行长特里谢（Jean-Claude Trichet）没有施行的新政策，总结下来有以下几条。 首先德拉吉在他上任后的第一次和第二次央行会议上，分两次将欧元基准利率从 1.5%下调到目前的1%，间接否认了前任行长特里谢在2011年上半年升息的政策。要知道欧洲央行一向以对待通胀威胁的严谨态度著称，即使在2008年 金融危机的时候，其基准利率也没有低过1%。这也是为什么特里谢在2011年上半年全球经济似乎还没有明显企稳，但似乎又有通胀隐忧的情况下，先于其他央 行急急升息的重要原因之一。但是德拉吉上任伊始就毫不犹豫将前任偏紧的货币政策逆转，可见其应对危机的决心。 德拉吉上任后的第二项重大 政策，是给欧洲所有的商业银行没有限量的长达三年之久的基于基准利率（1%）贷款，即所谓的长期再融资贷款（Long Term Refinancing Operation）。公平地讲，欧洲央行对欧元区猪猡诸国的困境并非视而不见。但由于央行宪章对其职责的限制，欧洲央行并不能像其他央行那样，给予那些 债台高筑的政府直接的金融援助，也不能在一级市场上购买这些政府所发行的债券。所以在迄今为止的所谓援助措施中，欧洲央行一直是遮遮掩掩，无法出台一些明 确的、足以平息市场担忧的彻底性政策，即使在购买猪猡诸国政府债券的时候也是偷偷摸摸，声称仅限于购买二级市场上的债券，并且在一定时日之后会重新卖出 （Sterilization）。 从央行政策的限制性角度来理解长期再融资贷款，此举可以说是欧洲央行在特殊情况下想出的一招权宜之 计。央行的如意算盘是，既然不能直接援助那些赤字政府，那就在宪章规定的权限之内，大规模援助欧元区的商业银行，然后通过商业银行之手给予身处债务困境的 政府一些援助（比如购买他们的政府债券），达到援助这些政府的最终目的。 但是从另外一个角度看事情的另一面，欧元区的领导人（特别是德 法领导人）仍旧希望给那些赤字政府足够的压力，继续推动其内部的财政改革和削减开支，因此又反对给予这些政府过多的金融援助，弱化其改革的压力，因此最后 敲定贷款期限长达三年，可以解燃眉之急，但将长期的根本性问题留给各国政府通过财政手段自行解决。 从市场反应来看，欧元区银行一共申请 了总额接近5000亿欧元的长期再融资贷款，大大超出市场预期。虽然此举对解决欧债危机的效果有待观察，但是德拉吉不同于前任的应对危机的处理方法可见一 斑。事实上，欧元对美元的汇率从德拉吉上任以来，从1.41左右一路下滑到1.27，在不到三个月的时间内贬值了10%强，可见市场已经开始认识到，新的 欧洲央行在应对危机时，完全不同于前任的政策以及影响。 说完了“是”，再简单说说“否”。在笔者看来，虽然德拉吉的一些大刀阔斧的政策，将自己同前任的政策分开，但是欧元区陷入债务困境的政府的根本问题，即过 高债务，过强币值和增长乏力等问题，无法在短期内得到解决。央行短期的货币政策不是万灵药，对解决以上长期的基本面问题作用有限。而要解决这些问题，根本 还是需要这些陷入困境的政府，进行更大规模的改革，以提高生产力和刺激增长，否则再过一年，我们可能还是会看到这些政府在债务的泥潭中步履蹒跚，越陷越 深。 此文原载联合早报. Related Posts:What&#8217;s the link between Greek Crisis and RMB (希腊债务危机和人民币)泡沫破灭2012 (Bubble to Burst in 2012)Wu Zhijian: Why Germany should not, and would not [...]]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2012/01/5255/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A Comparison between China and US housing Price (中美房价对比)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/12/5250</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/12/5250#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Dec 2011 05:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5250</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[IS China&#8217;s housing price expensive? Depends. Expensive is always a relative concept. This chart compares the housing price in a lot of Chinese cities to that of the United States, and it seems that the housing prices in two countries are quite similar. 中国房价贵么？要看你怎么看了。贵和便宜一直是一个相对概念。这张图表对比了中国和美国十几个大城市的平均房价。看起来似乎中美两国的房价差不多。 Related Posts:China National Housing Price on Fire (房价节节攀升)China&#8217;s Housing Price Tops [...]]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011 &#8211; China&#8217;s Reaction to European Debt Crisis</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5244</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5244#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Nov 2011 04:31:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5244</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Presentation can be downloaded from HERE. 演讲稿原文可从此处下载。 Related Posts:Wu Zhijian Lecturing in NUS (国立大学讲座)Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek (伍治坚接受HedgeWeek采访)Katsenelson: The mother of All Black Swans (中国在撒谎？)Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚：唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)China&#8217;s Dilemma (两难的选择)Powered by Contextual Related Posts]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>China is the second biggest creditor of US (美国第二大债主)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5240</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5240#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Nov 2011 05:41:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5240</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China is the second biggest creditor of US, just after Federal Reserve. 中国是继美联储之后美国的第二大债主 Related Posts:Saudi Arabia is the biggest supplier of Oil to China (要原油去沙特)Big Soybean Players in China (群雄逐豆)World Foreign Reserve Rank (世界外汇储备一览)China&#8217;s Dollar Debacle: Deja Vu again? (历史重现)A guess on China&#8217;s foreign reserve currency composition (外汇储备货币构成)Powered by Contextual Related Posts]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>A guess on China&#8217;s foreign reserve currency composition (外汇储备货币构成)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5236</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5236#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Nov 2011 05:37:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency China (汇率解析)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5236</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The actual currency composition of China&#8217;s foreign reserve is a state secret. However, we can get an educated guess on the components based on different sources of information. 中国外汇储备的外币构成没有人知道，但是可以管中窥豹，略知一二。 Related Posts:World Foreign Reserve Rank (世界外汇储备一览)Stats China: China&#8217;s Foreign Reserve amounts to 2273 Billion (外汇储备突破2.2万亿)China&#8217;s Foreign Reserve World No.1 (中国外汇储备世界第一)Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The geographic spread of China&#8217;s outward direct investment (对外投资地理分布)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5232</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5232#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Nov 2011 05:31:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5232</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Up till June 2011, China has invested directly in all the major continents, with a fairly even spread among all of them. 截至2011年6月，中国对海外的直接投资分布五大洲，在每个主要国家都有踪迹。 Related Posts:The sector spread of China&#8217;s outward direct investment (对外投资行业分布)China&#8217;s Global Reach (全球投资潮)Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚：唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)Presentation at Hedge Fund Conference November 2011 &#8211; China&#8217;s Reaction to European [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The sector spread of China&#8217;s outward direct investment (对外投资行业分布)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5226</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5226#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Nov 2011 05:27:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5226</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to Heritage Foundation, China&#8217;s outward direct investments are spread into sectors of energy, metal, power, transportation and other sectors. Data up to June 2011. 截至2011年6月，中国海外直接投资覆盖各个行业，最大的有能源，金属，运输，金融等行业。 &#160; Related Posts:The geographic spread of China&#8217;s outward direct investment (对外投资地理分布)China&#8217;s Global Reach (全球投资潮)China&#8217;s GDP heavily relies on property (GDP靠房产)Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚：唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)Big Soybean [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Wu Zhijian: China and Euro, Who Rescues Who? (伍治坚：唇亡齿寒的中欧关系)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5218</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5218#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2011 07:25:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5218</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This Article was originally published on Business Times. A lot has been said about the potential rescue from China to the current European debt mess. For example, Mr Yu Yongding, a former member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, wrote in Financial Times (Oct 31, 2011) that “Beijing will not ride to eurozeone’s rescue”. [...]]]></description>
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		<title>What if China Hard Lands (硬着陆风险)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5213</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5213#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Nov 2011 03:51:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5213</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Which countries will be hit hard if China lands hard? According to Maplecroft, There are a list of countries at the extreme risk if China lands improperly, including Mongolia, Singapore, South Korea and Australia. 中国硬着陆影响的不光是中国自己，还有周边一些其他国家。其中有一些国家和中国的相关性极高，因此受影响的可能性最大。这些国家包括新加坡，澳大利亚，韩国和蒙古。 &#160; Related Posts:Japan is China&#8217;s Top Import Supplier (日本是中国最大进口原产地)Wenzhou Lending Rate rockets through the roof (温州私贷利率飞涨)China&#8217;s Global Reach (全球投资潮)China&#8217;s Urbanization [...]]]></description>
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		<title>伍治坚：希腊离退出欧元区一步之遥 (Wu Zhijian: One Step Closer to Exit)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5205</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5205#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 04 Nov 2011 02:21:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[From China (内部思潮)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5205</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[此文原载联合早报 10月31日，希腊总理帕潘德里欧提议举行公投，由希腊全体人民决定是否接受欧洲议会、欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织（IMF）给予希腊的债务援助。 在此之前，欧洲债务危机断断续续已经持续了接近两年。希腊总理在这时候抛出这一令人大跌眼镜的怪招，为这场危机的解决又增加了许多不确定因素。 一个重要的问题是，为什么希腊总理要在这时候宣布举行公投？公投在希腊国内有民意支持么？回答这个问题，要从如何治愈希腊债务问题的源头说起。 从历史经验来看，一个国家要摆脱债务危机，似乎有两种方法：速效的和缓慢的。这有点像西医和中医，西医讲求用强效的大剂量，对患病区域集中用药以求快速见效，而中医讲求慢条斯理循序渐进。 绝大部分经历过债务危机的国家都会选择西医疗法，因为这种方法虽然在短时间内要经历很大的痛苦，但是耗时短见效快，咬牙坚持忍一忍，危机可能就过去了。 对这些国家渡过债务危机的历史进行的研究发现，基本上他们扭转局势都需要两个必要条件：第一就是快速和大规模的本币贬值，第二就是债务重组。这两个条件缺 一不可。大规模的本币贬值，让债务国的国际竞争力在短时间内成倍上升，为以后经济恢复元气夯下基础；债务重组让债务国的还债压力得到暂时的缓解，不至于被 过多的债务压得喘不过气来。 这次广受关注的希腊债务危机，有两个不同于以往的特点：首先是希腊的债务大部分是本币（即欧元）；其次是希 腊没有自主调控币值的能力（受欧洲央行控制）。因此只要希腊继续留在欧元区，她就没可能通过传统的西医方法（即快速的本币贬值加债务重组）来解决其债务问 题，留给希腊的选择只剩下第二条，即笔者上面所提到的中医法。 选择了中医法，其本质就是选择了在本币不贬值的前提下，来提高国家的竞争 力和偿债能力，从经济学角度上来讲，无非就是要削减成本，降低不必要的支出，提高生产效率。因此希腊政府出台了一系列改革方案，比如削减公务员工资，延长 退休年龄，减少或者取消各种名目的政府支出等等。但由于这是一个循序渐进的疗法，因此不得不进行长期治疗，在短时间内也可能看不到什么立竿见影的效果。 正是因为中医法需要长时间的痛苦，让希腊政府似乎看不到解决问题的曙光。没有人喜欢自己的退休金和工资被削减，因此希腊国内不停地出现工会罢工。希腊的 工人上街游行，反对政府通过的削减赤字的决定。这也让希腊政府陷入两难的困境：不削减赤字就拿不到欧洲央行和国际货币基金组织的救援贷款，但过度削减的话 国内人民又吃不消。这就是这次希腊总理宣布举行公投的历史背景。 根据历史经验，唯一可以让希腊快速解决其债务危机的方法，就是退出欧元 区，并通过上文提到的西医疗法快速改革。但是这样做可能在短时间内造成社会混乱甚至动荡，并且希腊也会受到很大的国际压力和谴责，也不太可能继续获得国际 援助。在这样的情况下，帕潘德里欧破罐子破摔，决定通过公投来赌一次。如果公投的结果为否定，即希腊人民反对接受援助条款，那么欧洲其他国家的领导人就要 面对希腊违约，甚至是退出欧元区的可能性。到时候摆在他们面前的选择，就变成了要么同希腊妥协（即降低援助条约的要求，或者更大幅度的减免债务），要么继 续强硬到不惜让希腊退出欧元区。 以笔者之见，欧洲领导人妥协的可能性不大。主要原因是欧元区以德法为首的领导人，不太可能开一个先例让 希腊得到特赦（这个先例一开，后面就会有意大利、西班牙等国效仿）。同时欧洲央行在万不得已的时候，还是可以发挥最终借款人（Lender of Last Resort）的角色，来护住留在欧元区内的银行和政府债务。因此虽然希腊退出欧元区将造成很多动荡，但也不是没有办法应对。希腊如果真的退出欧元区，虽 然债务可以一笔勾销，但其成本也将是巨大的。帕潘德里欧可能到后来发现自己聪明反被聪明误，将自己逼入骑虎难下的境地。 Related Posts:伍治坚：希腊危机还没完 (Wu Zhijian: Game not over for Greece)伍治坚：金融危机离我们不远 (Wu Zhijian: One step closer to the Financial Crisis)Wu Zhijian being Interviewed by HedgeWeek (伍治坚接受HedgeWeek采访)Presentation at Hedge [...]]]></description>
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		<title>Big Soybean Players in China (群雄逐豆)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5201</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5201#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 07:16:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5201</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China is one of the world&#8217;s biggest consumers and importers of Soybean. In this sector, there are quite a few large players in the crushing of imported beans. The biggest of all is Wilmar, which controls about 17% market share of China&#8217;s soybean crushing, followed by China Agri (12%), Chinatex (9%), Cargill (9%) and Jiusan [...]]]></description>
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		<title>China&#8217;s Global Commodity Appetite (大宗商品靠中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5198</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2011/11/5198#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 01 Nov 2011 06:57:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=5198</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China&#8217;s commodity appetite supports the global commodity market. For some of the items, China&#8217;s consumption solely determines their price. For example, China consumes more than half of world&#8217;s pork, more than 40% of world&#8217;s copper, and more than 1/3 of world&#8217;s cotton. If China slows down, the demands for all these commodities will slow down. [...]]]></description>
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