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<channel>
	<title>China Tells</title>
	<atom:link href="http://blog.chinatells.com/feed" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://blog.chinatells.com</link>
	<description>All about CHINA</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 05 Sep 2010 01:38:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en</language>
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		<item>
		<title>A debate on Capital vs Labor (劳力资本之争)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4603</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4603#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Sep 2010 01:38:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to the classic Marxist economic theory (which is the mostly taught economics in China), three factors are key for productivity: Capital, Labor and Land. Among them, according to Marx, the most important factor is labor. Following this logic, it would be hugely an evil for capitalist to pay labor low wage as they are taking away the productivity created by Labor instead of Capital. Above is an interesting chart to compare the Capital (millions RMB) to labor (number of workers) in China since 1991. Unsurprisingly, the Capital to Labor Ratio has continued to increase in the past 20 years, reflecting a fact that the increase of capital spending to Labor has been one of the contributing factors to the GDP growth in the past two decades. To explain the real world, maybe Marxist economists need to amend the theory from time to time.

根据马克思主义经济学，生产力的提高主要受益于资本，劳动和土地的投入。在这其中，劳动力的投入最为重要，资本为辅。因此马克思认为，资本家如果仅给工人微薄的工资，是明目张胆的窃取工人创造的剩余价值，是丧尽天良的剥削。上图显示了在过去20年中中国资本投入和劳动力投入的比值。从图中可以看出，资本对劳动力的投入在过去20年不断增长，与同期的GDP增长相辅相成。资本和劳动，到底谁的贡献大，可能还远未到盖棺定论的时候。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4603/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Minimum Wage highest in Shanghai (上海工资高)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4600</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4600#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Sep 2010 01:20:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4600</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to the data from CEIC and JP Morgan, China's minimum wage has been increased across the country. Among different areas, the minimum wage in Shanghai is the highest, exceeding 1100 RMB per month. To follow are some other Eastern regions such as Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong. The minimum wage in the West is relatively lower.

根据JP Morgan一项研究表明，中国各地的最低工资有地域差别。全国最低工资最高的地区在上海，达到每个月1120元。浙江广东地区的最低工资也比较高。相比而言，西部一些地区的最低工资在700元左右，要比东部沿海低下一截。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4600/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China Housing Critical to World Metal Demand (金属市场要看中国房地产脸色)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4596</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4596#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Sep 2010 07:31:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Commodity China (商品风暴)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4596</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The world Metal's demand is highly dependent on China's housing sector. According to the latest stats from World Bureau of Metal Statistics, China's housing sector accounts for a big chunk of demand for some of the metals such as Steel, Zinc and Copper. Therefore if there is a correction in China's housing market, the picture won't look too rosy for world metal price.

中国的房地产市场对于国际上一些金属的价格有关键影响。根据最新的统计资料表明，中国的房地产行业是一些金属需求以来的主要市场之一。比如国际上接近10%的钢铁需求来自于中国的房地产行业。因此如果中国房价有调整，这些金属的价格也会受到很大影响。]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>An uptrend of bulk cargo to China (贸易量的成倍上升)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4592</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4592#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Sep 2010 07:11:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4592</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[China's Share of Global Bulk Cargo has continued to go up since 1995. The share of China increased from about 15% of global bulk volume to more than 30% by 2009. Such is a reflection of the growth of China's economic strength and growing importance in world cross boarder trade.

在全球散伙贸易量上，中国的比重从95年开始连年上涨。中国占全球散伙贸易量从95年的15%左右上升到09年的30%以上，在15年的时间里翻了一番。这也是中国对世界经济做出贡献的明证之一。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/09/4592/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>RMB likely to move (人民币汇率要动)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4587</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4587#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Aug 2010 07:40:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency China (汇率解析)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Back in mid June, PBOC announced to de-peg RMB from USD. Since then, RMB did appreciate about 1% by early August but then reverted back near to the prior de-peg level. In summary in the last 2 months, RMB has almost not moved at all against USD.
Does it mean that the so called de-peg is a fake from PBOC? Or is PBOC waiting for a better time to take more aggressive action? My view is that we are likely to see RMB to make bolder move against USD in the next few months.
I have a few observations to support my opinion.
First, Chinese government is sending messages to the public in support of a more flexible exchange rate regime. This message is well reflected from a series of public announcements made by the Deputy Governor of PBOC, Ms Hu Xiaolian. Ms Hu has published five speeches recently to convey the message that Chinese authority has always supported a managed floating exchange rate regime, dated back to 1994. According to Ms Hu, the range of the floating adjustment shall be based on trade and current balance and a flexible exchange rate helps to improve the independence of monetary policy, and curb the imported inflation.
Ms Hu’s public speech shall be perceived as a warming up for Chinese government leaders to implement more aggressive policy changes in the near future.
Second, US want China to appreciate the currency faster.
Since the beginning of May, US economy starts to show more negative outlook, which leads the market to suspect a potential double dip. The unemployment rate in the US is still hovering at a very high level of about 10%, and the Obama government is running out of time to show the voters that they have the capability to lead the nation out of recession. In addition, it seems that the trade fundamentals between US and China are heading back to the imbalance status, in which China continues to accumulate more trade surplus while US continues to post record trade deficit. In July, China registered a whopping growth of 43.9% in export growth and also reported a trade surplus of 20 billion USD, which is the highest since the beginning of the year. Such is a worrying signal that the global imbalance that might be one of the reasons to contribute to the financial crisis is recurring again.
Thirdly, neither US nor China wants to see an outbreak of trade war between the two. With the mounting political pressure to build up in US before the mid term election in November, there is more likelihood for US to resort to trade protectionism if the trade imbalance between the two nations continues. On the other hand, the trade protectionism shall be the last choice for Obama administration as it would be detrimental for a weak US economy, and against US governments’ stance to promote free trade. Trade war would also cause detrimental effect on China’s export sector and the whole economy, which is more damaging than an appreciation of RMB.
To summarize above, I think we are more likely to see an appreciation of RMB rate than a trade war to occur between China and US.
As to the timing, I think we are likely to see the rate to be changed more aggressively by November. The reason is that there are a few important events to take place in November, such as the G20 summit in Seoul, the US mid-term election and the Strategic dialogue between China and US to take place in Washington DC. Based on past experience, such period could be a good opportunity window for Chinese government to implement more aggressive policy change on the rate of RMB.
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>A decade of Emerging Markets (新兴市场十年辉煌)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4583</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4583#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Aug 2010 10:22:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Equity China (股市风云)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4583</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The past ten years can be labeled as the decade of the emerging markets. Based on MSCI World Equity Index, the stock market in emerging markets including China has outperformed that of USA and Japan by far. The best performer is Russian equity market, up by more than 400% since January, 2001. The equity markets in Brazil and India follow, and then China. Both USA and Japan posted a negative return to equity investors.

过去的十年可以说是新兴市场的黄金十年，这一事实在股票市场上显露无遗。根据MSCI世界股票指数，金砖四国的股票各有大幅度增长，其中以俄罗斯股票市场的上升最为显著。与之相比，美国和日本的股票市场均有所下跌，可以说是股市的失去的十年。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4583/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>CEO of Chinatells being interviewed on Economic Times (实时采访)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4580</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4580#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Aug 2010 04:13:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4580</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The CEO of Chinatells, Zhijian Wu is being interviewed by Economic Times in India. He gave his views on World equity market and currency market.

中国通总裁最近接受印度经济时代电视台采访，并在采访中发表了自己关于世界经济的看法。
]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The essense of Made in China (中国制造还是中国组装)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4575</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4575#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 22 Aug 2010 01:43:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4575</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently a graph from Wall Street Journal has caught my attention. In the graph (shown above) the author decomposes the components and cost of a typical Blackberry phone and the origin of the components manufacturers. As shown on the graph, none of the key components (those normally claiming a high knowledge content and price) are made in China. Instead, they come from other countries such as USA, Japan, South Korea, UK and Switzerland. To be fair, China does contribute her share in providing the plastic and metal parts of the phone, whose cost is not even mentioned in the components costs breakdown. I am not saying that a Blackberry phone represents the Chinese manufacturing industry. However, to a certain extent it does reveals the fact that China's manufacturing capacity is still concentrated on the lower and easier part of the value chain. From time to time people might be misguided by what they see on the headline such as labeling China as the world's leading production center. However there is still a long way to go from quantity to quality.

最近华尔街日报上的一幅图片引起了我的兴趣。这幅图片将黑莓手机的零配件分拆，然后标出各种零配件的原产地以及成本。从图中可以看出，一部黑莓手机，没有一个核心零部件是在中国生产的，他们主要来自于其他一些发达生产国，比如美国，日本，瑞士等等。唯一在黑莓手机上可以找到中国制造痕迹的就是塑料外壳。这个例子生动的体现了目前中国制造的窘境：有海量，无质量，任重道远。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4575/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Labor Income slides down in GDP (不患寡，患不均)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4571</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4571#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Aug 2010 11:56:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4571</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is an old saying in China that: it is fine to have little, but it is problematic to distribute unevenly. The Chinese wisdom is powerful in explaining the world that we are living in. According to a study by Bank of America, the labor income as a percentage of GDP in China has continued to decrease despite the fact that total income has increased in the last 20 years. At the same time, the capital income has steadily increased at the cost of labor income. Such an observation is consistent with Michael Pettis' argument that for the past few years the government policy is actually forcing the savor to subsidize the borrower through an artificially low interest rate. If such trend is not managed properly, it is likely that we will see a further widening of wealth gap in China and an elevated level of unhappiness from the mass population.

中国有句古话，叫做不患寡，患不均。言简意赅，字字千金。根据美国银行最近的一项分析表明，中国劳动力收入占国民生产总值的比重在过去几年逐年下跌，而同时资本收入占国民生产总值的比例则节节上升。这样的研究结果和中国近几年贫富差距扩大的事实互相吻合，折射出目前中国社会一个需要政府解决的问题。否则长此以往，即使绝对收入提高，人们的幸福感可能会反而下降。]]></description>
		<wfw:commentRss>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4571/feed</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China in Foreigner&#8217;s Eye (老外看中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4568</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4568#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Aug 2010 05:53:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gossip China (八卦天下)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4568</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to a survey done by The Associated Press, People from different countries have very different opinions on China. The Press asked the respondents' view about China on a) Overall; b) economic power. According to their released result, the nationalities that love China most are Pakistanis and Nigerians, followed by Argentinian, Indonesian and Jordanian. The people who give a most negative score to China are Japanese, Turkey, French and German.

根据美联社最近的一项调查，世界各国受访民众对中国的态度大相径庭。比如对中国最欣赏的国民有巴基斯坦人和尼日利亚人。而对中国嗤之以鼻的民众主要来自于日本，德国，法国和土耳其。看来还是第三世界更支持中国。]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>2</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How to Hedge a China Slow Down (兵来将挡水来土掩)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4563</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4563#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 21 Aug 2010 01:35:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4563</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have mentioned in a previous article in Business Times  that China wants to slow down and China will slow down. Since then I have received some letters from investors asking for advice on how to hedge themselves against such a scenario. In this piece I would discuss some potential solutions.

I would recommend the investors to pay more attention to those developed markets who rely heavily on the growth story in China. The reason is that first it is not easy to short China directly on the capital market. Secondly China might still be fine if the economic growth slows from 10% to 8%. However a two percent loss of growth in some developed markets would make the dramatic change between growth and recession. I think some of the economies are particularly vulnerable to a slowdown in China. One of them is Australia.

Australia is one of the largest beneficiaries of China’s growth phenomenon. Thanks to its large reserve of natural resource, Australia had a commodity boom in the last few years. It is well reflected from the fact that the housing price in Australia only had a minor blip during the financial crisis, which is in sharp contrast to other G7 countries. Also Australia is one of the few developed countries that fared fairly well during the global financial crisis.

Behind the rosy scene, however, there are a few potential danger signs. For example, the Mortgage debt rate to GDP ratio in Australia is at a staggering 85%, which is even higher than that of US before the crash of housing bubble in 2007. The Economist Magazine estimates that Australian’s housing price is over valued by more than 60% based on the ratio of house prices to rents, which puts Australia at the top spot of the housing market over valuation league table. According to the latest stats released by Housing Industry Association of Australia, the house affordability index in Australia has plunged to a very low level almost similar to that in 2008. This is a clear signal to show that there is a huge housing bubble being built in Australia and that bubble is subject to burst any time in the near future.

Investors should be aware that a potential collapse of Australia’s housing price would have a profoundly detrimental impact on the currency. In addition investors should to look into equity market, especially those sectors that are largely exposed to the housing market in Australia. Last but not least, some industrial metals that are highly connected to the construction sector is worth watching.

自从我在Business Times上发表了一篇关于中国经济软着陆的文章，就陆续收到了一些读者来信，问我如何在中国经济增速放缓的情况下保护他们的投资。今天我就想这个问题谈谈自己的看法。

我建议投资者将注意力集中到对中国经济增长有很大依赖的那些国家。主要原因如下，一来对于国际投资者来说，由于人民币的管制，很难直接在资本市场上采取看空中国的投资策略；其次某些国家在中国经济增速放缓的情况下可能其损失还要超过中国，澳大利亚就是其中一个例子。

澳大利亚在08/09年金融危机的时候没有受多大影响，由于其丰富的矿产，在中国需求的带动下受益匪浅。澳大利亚的房价仅在08年有小幅回落，但是到了10 年迅速回升，超过了危机前的价格水平。根据经济学家杂志的估计，通过横向比较世界各地的房价/房租比，澳大利亚的房价至少被高估60%。澳大利亚按揭贷款对GDP的比值达到了85%，比美国07年房地产泡沫破灭之前的比值还要高。诸多迹象表明，澳大利亚的房价正在形成一个巨大的泡沫。在中国经济放缓的影响下，澳大利亚的房地产泡沫随时都有破灭的可能。

如果澳大利亚的房地产泡沫破灭，我建议投资者可以做空一些澳元。同时可以关心一下对建筑比较敏感的行业，如银行，重型机械等等。跟建筑业有紧密联系的贱金属，如铜，铝等也可以考虑一下。]]></description>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>China&#8217;s Land Price increases faster than GDP (地价超涨进行时)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4556</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4556#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 13:24:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Property China (房产透视)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stats China (统计图表)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4556</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Recently a graph from JP Morgan has caught the attention of Chinatells. According to the stats compiled by JPM, China's residential land price change (YoY) has always lagged that of GDP, until end of 2009/beginning of 2010. Since then, the land price increase has surpassed that of GDP increase.

Such a chart is consistent with Chinatells' observation that housing price (partially pushed up by land price) has gone up at a particularly fast pace since the end of 2009. As Chinatells has long argued, the ever increasing housing price in China is one of the most important factors to curb average household from consuming more. According to a study conducted by China's Academy of Social science, Chinese households' average saving ratio is stably around 50% in the last 10 years, if the revenue of property sales is added back to the household saving. In other words, the currently observed downtrend in Chinese households' saving ratio reflects the fact that average Joe's consuming power has been largely crippled by the ever increasing housing price.

To put it simple, if the government is serious about boosting the domestic consumption and try to grow the economy more towards consumption lead, then housing price (related land price) is one of the critical issues to address before we see the transition of economic growth mode to happen.

最近中国通注意到JP Morgan一张图表。该图表显示，自09年底以来，中国住宅用地的价格年增长率首次超过国民生产总值的年增长率。这个落差在过去10年绝无仅有，显示了 09年以来地价上涨的夸张程度。相应的，房价的上涨也顺理成章，成为压在城市居民背上一座难以撼动的负担。根据中国社科院最近的一项研究，高企的房价已经成为阻碍中国广大家庭增加消费的重要因素之一。联想到最近政府领导发出指示要减少经济增长对于出口和投资的依赖，并且增加消费对于经济增长的促进作用，那么改革房价已经成为最紧迫的需要解决的问题之一。]]></description>
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		<title>Long Trust Multi Trading</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4552</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4552#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gossip China (八卦天下)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4552</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Long Trust Multi Trading is a British run company operating in China. Long Trust Multi Trading Company Limited was founded by Dr F. Chui and is a fully licensed trading company. We have  twenty years collective experience of exporting from China and constantly strive with our manufacturers to represent the best side of “made in China.” [...]]]></description>
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		<title>People to People Sales Leads</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4548</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4548#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:25:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gossip China (八卦天下)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[People2People Sales Leads is a niche lead company that provides custom sales leads for your marketplace. All of our leads are our existing clients who are families that have requested our no cost services. Each client is individually hand generated, in-person, and face-to-face and we allow you to use them for your selling needs. Related [...]]]></description>
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		<title>The List of Small Business Ideas</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4544</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4544#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:20:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gossip China (八卦天下)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4544</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The List of Small Business Ideas Looking for a list of small business ideas? Then you&#8217;ve come to the right place. Most lists are simply that: a list. A dry, boring, uninformative list. But that&#8217;s not what you want. You want to find a real business model for generating income. You want a pathway to [...]]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Inflation Proof Investor</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4541</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4541#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Aug 2010 12:14:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gossip China (八卦天下)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4541</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here is a good solution you may be interested in. Inflation Proof Investor  is a Pan-European investment vehicle for retail investors to beat inflation and benefit from the largest ongoing wealth opportunity of recent decades. They offer Precious Metals and other Alternative Investments related solutions to mitigate the political risk your assets are exposed to. By diversifying your investments into different asset classes and jurisdictions - mostly connected to Europe's No.1 financial location, Liechtenstein - your assets are no longer under any one Government's control. You benefit from free access to all investment classes, tax benefits, the highest discretion of Lichtenstein Law and bankruptcy protection.]]></description>
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		<title>Pettis: China in a Foreign Eye (第三只眼看中国)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4537</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4537#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Aug 2010 01:03:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bear China (唱衰集团)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4537</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Michael Pettis is a Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a finance professor at Peking University’s Guanghua School of Management, where he specializes in Chinese financial markets. From 2002 to 2004, Pettis taught Finance and Economics at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management. Prior to that, Pettis taught at Columbia University’s Graduate School of Business.

Pettis has offered unique insights on the economic and financial situation of China, thanks to his long living experience in Beijing. Pettis has long held the view that China's consumption has been artificially suppressed due to government's policy to keep the interest rate at an excessively low level long below the long term economic growth rate. Such a policy has encouraged business owners to borrow at an artificially low level at the cost of lenders (consumer depositors). Such a structural misalignment impedes China from changing into a more consumption oriented growth model.

麦克佩蒂斯是广大中国读者比较熟悉的西方学者之一。佩蒂斯在中国居住了八年，目前在北京大学任教。由于其在中国的生活经历，因此佩蒂斯提出了许多对于中国经济和金融环境的独到的观点。佩蒂斯认为中国要从投资导向转型到消费导向，有很多困难需要克服。其中一个主要的困难是过去20年中国经济赖以成长的法宝，即认为压低利率以惩罚储户激励贷户。因此如果政府真的有决心要刺激国内消费，那么需要从这个基本点出发进行改革。]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>Stephen Green: No worry on China property (放心买房)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4534</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4534#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 14 Aug 2010 00:39:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Bull China (唱多阵营)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4534</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stephen Green is Head of Greater China research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. He lives in Shanghai and travels widely around China. Stephen has long been a China Bull, backed up by his living experience in China. Recently Stephen writes a few reports on China Property  advising investors that there is no need to over worry the potential crackdown of China property market. According to Stephen, property sector is one of the most important fiscal revenue sources for local governments and they will have a strong incentive to manage the supply of land to prevent over falling of property price. Stephen also believes that China's economic growth is likely to slow down in the next few years, but still above the growth pace of the developed countries.

斯蒂夫格林是渣打银行中国区的研究部总经理。格林是英国人，但是已经在上海生活多年，并且会说一些普通话。格林长期看好中国经济，认为中国经济增长会持续超过欧美。最近格林发了一系列报告，提出中国的房价下跌幅度将十分有限，主要原因是地方政府不愿意看到房价下跌过快，因此会控制供给以调控房价。]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>CNY&#8217;s move surprised traders (人民币不是好惹的)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4528</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4528#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Aug 2010 14:12:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Currency China (汇率解析)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4528</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have pointed out in a previous post that it is a mind blower to trade RMB on the NDF market. If you think that RMB is a free lunch on the table for investors to bet on the seemingly one way direction, well the market likes you as a guest. During the past week RMB surprised most trades by coming off from its recent high and returned most gains that she has gained in the past month. So where is the complaint and pressure from US congressmen? And where is the IMF or World Bank report claiming a 30% RMB undervaluation? Nowadays almost any renowned economist will tell you that RMB is undervalued and it is to China's benefit to let RMB appreciate. The benefits could go on a long list such as increased purchasing power of Chinese consumers, global rebalancing between trading partners, less reliance on export oriented growth and political pressure from Obama. However, to express a view and to profit from it is totally two different things. The recent move of RMB has taught an important lesson that: opinion is free, but to make a correct investment decision is totally a different ball game.

人民币对美元的币值一直以来被视作世上少有的无悬念事件，早晚要升值，不是快升就是慢升。因此人民币远期市场上的交易大多以看多为主，只是看多的程度有所不同。最近一个星期人民币币值不声不响来了个闷跌，把前一个月的升值全都跌回去了。我在此前一篇文章中已经解释过赌人民币升值不如去赌马，可能中奖的概率还高点。其中有许多原因。对于围观的观众来说，人民币升值从外围来看热热闹闹，但是真的想要从中获利那就纯粹是另外一门学问了。]]></description>
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		<item>
		<title>China Wants to Slow Down (宁愿慢下来)</title>
		<link>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4522</link>
		<comments>http://blog.chinatells.com/2010/08/4522#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Aug 2010 01:47:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Wushu</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing China (投资视角)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Macro China (国际视点)]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Publication (出版发行)]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://blog.chinatells.com/?p=4522</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[For the last two decades, China’s phenomenal growth has been one of the most critical changes in the world economy. Such a growth was given tags such as ‘wonder’ or ‘miracle’, and boosts the confidence of all Chinese people by the expectation that were China to continue to grow at such pace, it will be sooner rather than later for China to surpass Japan, and eventually USA to become the world’s leading economy.

The growth story is still under its way. For example, China registered one of the worlds’ best growth rates in the second quarter of 2010 (10.3%). Consider that most developed economies are still struggling in the mire of double dip or debt crisis, for such a big and export oriented economy as China to continue to post a double digit growth, it has to be outstanding if not astounding.

From time to time, however, people do pause and think, and start to raise the questions such as: is this what we want? We are living in the worlds’ fastest growing country, so what? Are we really happier than ten years ago?

Such self doubting is being felt by the government official in Beijing. In fact, it is becoming increasingly obvious to the country’s leaders that the dark sides of an excessive growth in China are starting to emerge. Among them:

First, there is a growing income gap between the rich and poor. According to the statistics from United Nation, the Gini coefficient of China has steadily increased from 30 to 45 since 1970, reaching the level of USA, but far above that of European countries. Such a widening gap has at least partially fueled the anger and hatred of low incomers towards the whole society. In 2010 alone, more than six kindergartens in different parts of the country at different times have been attacked by violent intruders who stab kids and toddlers and then committed suicide. The attackers don’t even know these kids, or the parents of them, and it is hardly believable that all the attackers have mental problem especially that none of them have been hospitalized before.

Second, it is unclear whether the country’s biggest work force - the factory labors – benefit from a phenomenal growth story. One of the key advantages of China’s export sector is her productivity, which largely attributes to its super low wage, further cheapened by a pegged currency rate to USD. However, such advantage is unlikely to continue in the near future. To start with, China’s labor supply, especially in coastal areas, is going to shrink in the next few years, mainly due to the one child policy started in 1980. As a result the employers are likely to enter a period of competing for young labors, and inevitably the wage will have to be increased for such competition. Next due to incidents such as suicide workers in Foxxcon, the government will likely support a policy of increasing the minimum wage continuously in the next few years. Thirdly the pegged FX rate is being criticized and challenged by numerous trading partners, lead by USA from time to time. Since 2000 China has received most complaints in WTO (see graph below), more than double the second runner (South Korea). The international pressure will likely make it more difficult to peg the currency while keeping a record amount of trade surplus at the same time.

Third, China has accumulated record amount of Foreign reserve (mainly in USD) through her trade surplus. However, it is increasingly unclear whether it is a blessing or cursing. Since the beginning of June 2010, USD has lost about 15% to 20% of its value against major currencies. Given the gloomy outlook of US economy such as its anemic growth prospect, record high unemployment rate and continuously ballooning debt, the second and third round of quantitative ease and monetization of its debt looks more likely to happen. If USD has a chance of being largely devalued due to the preference of US Fed and US government, what is the point to accumulate such a record amount of reserve through so much hassle risking so much international reputation? How to protect the value of the foreign reserve is going to be one of the biggest challenges of Chinese government in the foreseeable future.

 

Fourth, the environment of China has paid dearly for the growth of economy. In July 2010 there was a leakage of oil in Dalian, a northern city in China. The scale is not as big as the BP leakage in US Gulf. However, the detrimental effect on the rivers in Dalian is severe and it is estimated that it will take at least 10 years for the polluted river to become clean again. At some point people start to doubt whether it is worth to sacrifice the air and water quality for a further one percentage point in the GDP headline number.

Overall, it is becoming increasingly clear that the leaders in Beijing are fully aware of the negative side of an unsustainably excessive growth rate in China’s economy, and are likely to deliberately slow down the growth engine. As history proves, the will of a central government in a still highly centrally planned economy shall have a deciding effect on the outcome of its economic system. To put it simple, China wants to slow down, and will slow down. The phenomenal growth of China that we saw in the last decade probably won’t be repeated again in the next few years.]]></description>
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